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The smooth-riding convertible that was the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks has become less trusty in recent days.
The offense has struggled, tallying only 2.5 runs per game and a .195 team batting average since June 27. The starting pitching has been inconsistent; Tommy Henry tossed six scoreless in a 2-1 loss on Wednesday, Ryne Nelson gave up seven runs and was bounced after three innings on Thursday. Such dramatic highs and lows have become the norm.
For as unreliable as the offense and starting pitching have been in recent days, however, one could argue that the team’s lack of a reliable ninth inning arm has loomed even larger.
On June 28, Scott McGough was within one out of sealing a 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Josh Lowe then hit a go-ahead, two-run double, ultimately turning a 2-0 D-backs lead into a 3-2 loss.
A similar story happened on Wednesday, when Andrew Chafin came on in the ninth to close out a 1-0 D-backs win over the New York Mets. Chafin got the first two outs, but Francisco Alvarez tied the game with a two-strike homer. The Mets went on to take the lead and win the game.
On the whole, the D-backs bullpen has actually been fine in 2023. They have not been good, but they rank near the middle of the pack in nearly every major stat.
However, the team clearly lacks a reliable ninth-inning option, and they have lost a number of winnable games as a result. According to Fangraphs, D-backs relievers have a 10.43 ERA this year in high-leverage situations in the ninth inning or later. That is the second-worst mark in baseball.
Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo has embraced a closer-by-committee strategy for the first time in his D-backs tenure this year. For a while, it looked like it was working. Now, it seems abundantly clear that it is not.
While Scott McGough, Miguel Castro and Andrew Chafin have all had solid years overall, they have struggled mightily when it matters most.
With the trade deadline now only 3 1/2 weeks away, it seems clear that the D-backs don’t just need bullpen help. They need ninth inning help. They need a closer.
Let’s take a look at who might be available to fill that need.
Hunter Harvey is not a household name, but he is related to a successful major league pitcher whose name you might have heard.
No, we are not talking about New York Mets one-time All-Star Matt Harvey. Hunter is the son of two-time All-Star Bryan Harvey, a reliever in the late 80s and early 90s who amassed 448 career strikeouts in 387 innings on his way to a career 2.49 ERA.
Hunter’s major league career is off to a similarly promising start. In 77.2 innings since being claimed off waivers by the Washington Nationals in early 2022, Harvey has a 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .208 opponent batting average and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.8 walks per nine.
The 28-year-old righty features a four-seam fastball that averages 99 mph and a low-90s splitter while also mixing in the occasional slider and curveball.
Most importantly, Harvey has some closing experience, having served as the Washington Nationals’ primary closer of late after Kyle Finnegan struggled in the role out of the gate.
Whether Harvey is up to the task of closing games in the playoffs remains to be seen, but it is at least conceivable that the Nats would consider moving him. He is under team control through 2025.
Of all major league pitchers who have saved 15 or more games this season, only Carlos Estevez has not blown a save.
In 34 innings in 2023, Estevez has a 1.85 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .216 opponent average to go with a career-high 29.6 percent strikeout rate. And, yes, he is 21 for 21 in save opportunities.
While it seems doubtful that Estevez can maintain this current level of production — his FIP is 3.47 and his xFIP is 4.01 — he has clearly benefitted from getting out of Coors Field, his home ballpark for his first six seasons in the majors.
One of several potential free agent targets for the Diamondbacks entering the offseason, Estevez ultimately signed a two-year, $13.5 million deal with the Angels.
With one more year of team control next year, the Angels certainly do not have to deal him. Nonetheless, with Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury all hitting the injured list in recent days, the Angels are all but certain to be sellers at the deadline.
Should the Diamondbacks acquire him, they would have club control through the end of next year. Estevez is owed $6.75 million in 2024.
Since he first arrived in the majors, St. Louis Cardinals flamethrower Jordan Hicks has generally looked better than he actually he is.
His sinker and four-seamer both average 101 mph. His sweeper has a ridiculous 56 percent whiff rate. He consistently limits hard contact.
Nonetheless, Hicks is currently sporting a 4.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Those numbers do not exactly scream backend reliever.
Hicks’ primary issue over the years has been walks. In 2023, he has a 14.2 percent walk rate, much higher than the league average of 9.6 percent for relievers.
Still, Hicks’ strikeout rate has ticked up significantly this year, and his peripherals suggest he is closer to a low-3.00 ERA pitcher than a low-4.00 ERA pitcher.
Moreover, Hicks has been closing games lately for the Cardinals, going 6-for-7 in save opportunities.
Walks may always keep Hicks from being a truly elite reliever, but he has better stuff than anyone in the D-backs’ bullpen.
Hicks is a free agent at the end of the year. The Cardinals, now 15 games under .500 entering Friday, seem likely to move him.
The Cardinals have probably underwhelmed more than any team in baseball this year, but the San Diego Padres are not far behind.
Entering play on Friday, they are 41-46. That puts them 6.5 games out of the wild card and 8.5 games out of the division lead.
There might still be time for them to turn it around — a three-game sweep of the Angels to open the week was a good start — but they have a long way to go.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today has already reported that the Padres are “expected” to part ways with both Hader and starting pitcher Blake Snell at the deadline.
Should the Diamondbacks acquire Hader, they would only have him for the remainder of the 2023 season. He also would not come cheaply, either in trade capital or in salary. In 2023, he is set to make $14.1 million, which would prorate to around $5 million for the rest of the year depending on the date of the trade.
Nonetheless, Hader has been one of the best relievers in baseball to date. In 34 games, he has a 1.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .127 opponent average.
The Mets sure did not look like impending sellers during their three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks at Chase Field this week, but they still have a long way to go to close what is currently a 6.5-game gap between them and the lowest-ranked wild card team.
Many things have gone wrong for the majors’ most expensive team this year, but the performance of David Robertson is not one of them. In 38.1 innings, Robertson has a 1.88 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 45 strikes out compared to just 11 walks. Even at age 38, Robertson continues to be one of baseball’s premier relievers.
The Mets signed Robertson to a one-year, $10 million deal in the offseason, which means that Robertson is set to become a free agent at the end of the year. Should the Mets fall out of race, he would be a clear trade candidate.
Robertson has significant closing experience in his career, including a solid 13-for-16 run in save opportunities this year in the absence of All-Star closer Edwin Diaz.
After making their first postseason appearance in 21 years in 2022, the Seattle Mariners looked like a potential contender for years to come. This year, they have taken a step back.
Entering play on Friday, the Mariners are 43-43, four games out of the wild card in the American League.
It is still unclear which direction the Mariners will go at the deadline, but it is at least possible that they will consider trading players who are close to free agency. One such player is 33-year-old right-hander Paul Sewald, who is under team control through the end of 2024.
For the past three seasons, Sewald has been one of baseball’s most electric relievers. In 164 innings from 2021-23, he has a 2.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .168 opponent average with good peripherals across the board.
Since the middle of last season, Sewald has served as the Mariners’ primary closer. He is 16-for-19 in save opportunities this season.
In similar fashion to Sewald, Kansas City Royals right-hander Scott Barlow has come on strong over the past three seasons as one of the game’s premier relievers. Since 2021, the 30-year-old has a 2.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .211 opponent average and a solid 28.8 percent strikeout rate.
Barlow’s numbers are not quite as picturesque this year, with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.34. Nonetheless, his peripherals — specifically, a 3.32 FIP and 3.20 xFIP — are still roughly in line with where they were last year.
At 25-63 entering play on Friday, the Royals are just a half-game clear of the worst record in baseball. They are certain sellers, and they already made a significant move by dealing closer Aroldis Chapman to the Texas Rangers.
Barlow is not as dominant as Chapman, but he is 50-for-62 in save opportunities over the past three seasons and is controllable through the end of 2024.
If Josh Hader is the best reliever on this list, David Bednar is not far behind. In 33 innings in 2023, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 28-year-old righty has a 1.36 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .202 opponent average. Bednar has 39 strikeouts compared to just five walks this season.
Bednar also has ample closing experience. Over the past two seasons, he is 35-for-40 in save opportunities.
The big question, of course, is whether the Pirates will be willing to part with him. Based on the standings, the Pirates look like clear sellers. At 40-47, they are 8 1/2 games out of first place in the NL Central and 7 1/2 games out of the wild card race.
Even so, Bednar is still under team control through 2026, and the Pirates presumably could get a lot for him if they waited until next year.
If they did move him this season, suffice it to say it would take a haul to make the deal happen. Bednar might be the best reliever on this list, and he also has more years of control than anyone else.
Entering play on Friday, the Milwaukee Brewers are 47-41. They are just two games behind the Cincinnati Reds in the division race and one game out of the NL wild card race. That doesn’t sound like a team that is about to deal its star closer.
And yet, the Brewers pulled off a nearly identical move last year on Aug. 1, the day of the trade deadline. Despite being 57-45 at the time — good enough for first place in the NL Central — the Brewers traded the aforementioned Josh Hader to the Padres.
To be fair, it was not a prototypical seller move. The Brewers did get Taylor Rogers back in the trade, a major league reliever with backend experience. Still, the move raised some eyebrows, both outside the organization and inside the organization.
Nonetheless, one of the primary reasons the Brewers felt they were able to make the move was because of the presence of Williams. In 187 career innings since 2019, Williams has a career 2.02 ERA, including a 1.99 mark this year.
For as dominant as he has been, Williams is very different from Hader. He is right-handed instead of left-handed. His fastball averages a modest 94 mph. His out pitch is a changeup, not a slider.
That changeup is something else, though.
With two more years of control after this one, it still seems unlikely that the Brewers would move on from him, particularly since they do not have another Williams-Hader type waiting in the wings.
Still, the fact that they moved on from Hader at a similar point at least raises the question: Could they do something similar this year?
Kenley Jansen is 35 years old now, and — checks notes — he is throwing as hard as ever.
Jansen’s velo uptick — his signature cutter is averaging over 94 mph again — has helped him to yet another solid season as a closer. In 31 games for the Boston Red Sox, Jansen has a 3.34 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .250 opponent average.
Those are not prime Jansen numbers, but the fully body of work is strong enough that he is 18 for 21 in save opportunities.
Whether the body of work is strong enough to be worth $16 million per year this year and next year is a different question. For the Diamondbacks, the answer would certainly be no.
If the Red Sox are willing to eat a meaningful portion of Jansen’s salary, perhaps a deal could be had. If not, it is hard to see a deal coming together.
Follow Jesse Friedman on Twitter
Top photo: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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