Examining the economic impact of the MLB lockout on spring training in Arizona

The last six months for Major League Baseball have been a roller coaster of highs and lows for the sport. But despite concerns that the offseason lockout would have lasting ramifications on the season, things are seemingly back to normal. Attendance was down across baseball 3.2 percent in April 2022 from April 2019, the last season unaffected by the pandemic. This decrease was surprisingly low and consistent for the decline MLB has experienced dating back to 2007. In short, the impact of the lockout was not as severe as expected.

Much like the lasting ramifications many thought we would see for the regular season, the spring training season started off in jeopardy.  For local businesses across Arizona and Florida, spring training means much more than a fresh start for America’s pastime. MLB’s unique annual rite is a massive tourism draw, and it has become an integral part of local economies, especially here in Arizona.

Local businesses that rely on the baseball tourism draw have had to survive for two years without knowing when or if it would come again during the pandemic. There was finally light at the end of the tunnel for 2022, but that light was quickly extinguished by the news that the MLB lockout would delay the spring training season. Fortunately, resilient businesses that have already overcome so many obstacles somehow found a way to continue to thrive despite attendance numbers and spending being down across the Cactus League.

While Florida still remains the Theme Park Capital of the World, Arizona isn’t so lucky. The state relies much more on spring training and other seasonal sporting events for a tourism boost to the local economy. While the impact of annual events such as NASCAR or the Phoenix Open is minimal, the Valley-wide impact of spring training is massive. Each one of the Cactus League’s 15 teams plays 30-plus games during a typical spring training season. With perfect weather and unchecked optimism, it’s a huge draw both for local and out-of-state fans.

Businesses near spring training ballparks in areas such as Goodyear, Maryvale, and Surprise rely on the traffic the season brings for their financial boom. And what a financial boom it has been. Per a report provided to PHNX by The L. William Seidman Research Institute, the Cactus League contributed an estimated $373 million to Arizona’s state gross domestic product in 2018, the last full year of analysis. The report calculates that the average out-of-state visitor attends three games, stays four nights and spends $405 per day during spring training.

While that money can be spent throughout the Valley, it obviously benefits businesses near the spring training ballparks more. It’s incredibly lucrative when there isn’t a worldwide pandemic or a self-inflicted lockout in place preventing out-of-state visitors from making travel plans. Goodyear Stadium, spring training home of the Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Guardians, hosted 29 games in 2018, attracting nearly 163,000 fans. The games were responsible for an estimated $20.2 million in direct expenditures throughout Phoenix. This includes money spent on accommodations, food and beverage, retail, local travel and other forms of entertainment.

In Maryvale, the Milwaukee Brewers attracted more than 76,000 fans in that same timeframe. The Brewers 15 home games contributed an estimated $14.3 million to the local economy and $17.3 million to the state GDP. Surprise Ballpark, which is another host of two MLB teams, attracted more than 190,000 fans to its 31 games in 2018. The contribution from the home of the Texas Rangers and the Kansas City Royals to spending was $30.6 million throughout the Valley. These three stadiums combined to contribute $80.5 million to the state GDP and $6.9 million directly to state and local government taxes.

These figures come from a time unaffected by the hurdles spring training has faced over the last few years. In 2022 after the lockout ended, attendance numbers were down dramatically. Maryvale Ballpark drew 37,813 fans in nine games this year, averaging just 4,201 visitors per game. Surprise Ballpark saw just 76,552 visitors in 17 games, while Goodyear Stadium welcomed 58,262 fans in 18 games. The average attendance for these three ballparks went from 5,720 per game to 3,923 per game. That is a 32 percent decrease in attendance in just three years.

While this decrease is for overall attendance, the tourism numbers could be much more significant. The $80.5 million contributed to Arizona’s GDP would drop to $54.7 million based on the decrease in attendance figures. However, the numbers provided by Seidman do take into account the expenditure by out-of-town visitors, so the decrease in spending and contributions to the state GDP would be even more.

With all of that being said, some local businesses have not been feeling the sting nearly as badly as anticipated. Booty’s Wings, Burgers & Beer near Surprise Stadium saw fans come back out stronger than ever this spring after two years of a pandemic and an uncertain due date for the start of the season. Management confirmed that business was slow prior to the end of the lockout, but once the start of the season was confirmed, business quickly picked up.

“We’re just coming up on our 10-year anniversary,” a manager told us by phone. “Spring Training is typically our busiest time of the year, and I definitely think that it generated the same amount of business if not more because a lot of people were locked up and now they’re able to come out.”

When asked about the amount of out-of-town visitors they saw during the shortened spring training, that is where they saw their biggest attrition. But it still wasn’t as significant as they expected.

“There were still a lot of people from out of town, but not nearly as much,” she said.

There was a similar sentiment at a local Holiday Inn Express & Suites in Surprise that sees its biggest surge of visitors during the spring season. A front desk representative said the property didn’t see nearly the amount of cancellations they thought they would due to the lockout.

“Some guests had made their reservations to come out for spring training and didn’t end up getting to come to spring training, but came for their stays anyways because they had already booked and they had family out here,” she said. “Then we had people who found out once it was no longer being postponed and they came out, so as far as guests, we did have somewhat of a drop, but not nearly as many as we expected.”

Anthony Evans from the L. William Seidman Research Institute explained this may be due to the average drop-off in attendance normally occurring later in the spring training season.

“It’s difficult to quantify the impact of a delayed start, without knowing the duration of that delay,” he said. “Our prior work for the Cactus League Association suggests that the greatest impacts generally occur later in a Cactus League season. Some of that could perhaps be to do in part with the timing of Spring Break in other states. Suffice to say, a delayed start in 2022 will probably have less impact than the early curtailment of a season, which we experienced in 2020.”

After three years of hurdles, it would seem that things have stabilized for some local businesses, even with the drop-off in attendance numbers. Other businesses who weren’t so lucky were unable to weather the storm of both a pandemic and a lockout. If nothing else, this once again is a reminder that baseball is so much more than just a game.

Follow Derek Montilla on Twitter

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