Diamondbacks' Alek Thomas squarely in mix for NL Rookie of the Year

Since his debut on May 8, Alek Thomas may be his team’s most valuable position player.

Entering Sunday’s game against the Tigers, the Diamondbacks outfielder is slashing .267/.327/.433 with six home runs, seven doubles and four stolen bases in 43 games.

Despite having played in just 43 of his team’s 73 games, Thomas is fifth on his team in homers, fourth in runs scored, sixth in fWAR and tied for second in stolen bases. 

Thomas is also first on his team in batting average (minimum 150 plate appearances), second in on-base percentage and third in slugging percentage. Meanwhile, he’s played more than competent defense in center field.

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He not only stacks up well against his teammates, he stacks up well against his rookie counterparts in the National League, and he is squarely in the mix for the NL Rookie of the Year award.

“He’s been doing a fantastic job,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “He has been a very consistent at-bat. He’s anchored center field for us and done a really nice job defensively.”

“Consistent” is a good descriptor for Thomas. Since his second game in the big leagues, his OPS has never dipped below .730 (the league-wide OPS is currently .704), and it didn’t take long for him to dig his way out from the bottom of the lineup.

Despite the pressure that could come from Thomas batting in the two-hole consistently, Diamondbacks hitting coach Joe Mather lauded Thomas’ ability to make adjustments.

“Teams have started throwing him change-ups. He’s found some answers for those,” Mather said. “They tried flipping in slow curveballs. He may have struggled a few games, and then he adjusted.”

Thomas will need to make more adjustments as the season continues, but his success so far appears sustainable, in large part because he rarely strikes out. Among Diamondbacks hitters with 30 or more plate appearances this season, Thomas has the lowest strikeout rate at 18.2 percent.

Combine his propensity for putting the ball in play with occasional flashes of power and excellent center field defense, and it’s not hard to see why Thomas was such a highly-touted prospect.

Since day one of his first MLB season, he has been above-average on both sides of the ball. When it comes to the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year award, that might be all it takes.

Here is a list of the top 15 NL rookies in fWAR, split into position players and pitchers, and their stats as of Saturday morning.

Position Player	Team	fWAR	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xWOBA
Brendan Donovan, INF/OF	STL	1.4	188	.320	.420	.418	.375	.339
Michael Harris II, OF	ATL	1.2	98	.319	.347	.521	.374	.328
Alek Thomas, OF	ARI	1.1	161	.267	.329	.438	.336	.342
Luis Gonzalez, OF	SFG	1.0	180	.302	.361	.447	.351	.310
Nolan Gorman, 2B	STL	0.7	115	.267	.330	.476	.351	.376
Jack Suwinski, OF	PIT	0.7	182	.212	.286	.448	.319	.330
Christopher Morel, INF/OF	CHC	0.7	161	.266	.331	.455	.340	.342
Seiya Suzuki, OF	CHC	0.6	163	.245	.344	.432	.335	.330

Pitcher	Team	fWAR	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	K%	BB%
Spencer Strider, RP/SP	ATL	1.2	47.2	3.40	2.36	1.11	36.9	11.3
McKenzie Gore, SP	SDP	1.2	59.1	3.34	3.32	1.33	25.8	11.1
Joe Mantiply, RP	ARI	0.9	26.2	0.34	1.51	0.83	26.0	1.0
Scott Effross, RP	CHC	0.9	30.1	2.97	1.83	1.19	29.9	6.3
Graham Ashcraft, SP	CIN	0.7	41.1	3.27	3.72	1.09	15.8	4.1
Aaron Ashby, SP/RP	MIL	0.7	55	4.25	3.63	1.45	27.5	10.7
Connor Overton, SP	CIN	0.7	24.2	1.82	3.16	0.89	11.2	7.9

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Thomas ranks fifth in fWAR among NL rookies, trailing Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan, Braves outfielder Michael Harris II, Braves pitcher Spencer Strider and Padres pitcher MacKenzie Gore. That doesn’t necessarily mean Thomas is fifth in the race, though.

Donovan’s .320/.420/.418 batting line jumps off the page, but he’s benefited heavily from an unsustainable .384 BABIP. He’s never been much of a power hitter in his professional career, which means his offensive value could decrease significantly if (when) his BABIP comes down to earth.

That said, the Cardinals have asked a lot of Donovan this season, as he’s played games at every position except catcher and center field in just 52 games. His versatility has value that some metrics, including fWAR, will miss. Nonetheless, his candidacy for the moment is largely dependent on offensive numbers that don’t appear to be sustainable.

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Meanwhile, Harris II is slashing .319/.347/.521, but he has a similarly high BABIP of .409. His xwOBA (expected wOBA) is actually 14 points lower than that of Thomas. The fact that he doesn’t draw many walks (just three in 98 plate appearances) could make it difficult to fend off the inevitable regression that awaits.

It should be noted, however, that Harris II has only played 26 games, and the fact that he’s still top-five among NL rookies in fWAR over that short a time-frame is impressive. His ability to play elite defense in center field is a big factor, as is a swing adjustment he made early in the season that appears to be paying dividends.

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Switching to the pitching side, Harris II’s teammate Spencer Strider has a compelling case. Strider opened the season as a reliever but has pitched as a starter since May 30. In five starts, he has a respectable 4.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 23.1 innings.

It’s fair to wonder if Strider’s fastball/slider two-pitch mix will be enough to succeed as a starter in the long-term, but so far he’s still generating an absurd number of whiffs. Among pitchers with 30 or more innings pitched, Strider has the highest strikeout rate in baseball at 36.9 percent. His 3.40 ERA is deceptively high for how well he’s throwing the ball.

The other pitcher in serious contention is former Padres top prospect MacKenzie Gore, who has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 11 starts. 

Opposing hitters have just 11 extra-base hits against Gore all season, spurring him on to a 3.34 ERA. One extra-base hit per game might not be sustainable, but Gore’s pedigree as a prospect makes it hard to bet against him.

As Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs wrote earlier this week, there’s no clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. I haven’t even brought up Giants outfielder Luis Gonzalez, Cardinals second baseman Nolan Gorman, Pirates outfielder Jack Suwinski and Cubs outfielders Christopher Morel and potentially even Seiya Suzuki, all of whom are within striking distance.

The field is wide open — and because of the new collective bargaining agreement, there’s more at stake than ever. According to the terms of the CBA, the top two vote-getters for Rookie of the Year in each league will earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up. For Thomas, that could mean reaching free agency a year sooner.

While lauding Thomas as deserving of the award, Lovullo hopes his rookie outfielder can stay focused on the task at hand.

“I don’t want him to get sidetracked by that,” Lovullo said. “I want him to continue to focus on today and do what he can to help his team win a baseball game today.”

Thomas echoed the words of his manager.

“That would be cool,” Thomas said of winning the award. “It’s definitely, you know, a goal of mine. But I think what comes first is winning on this team.”

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Top photo: Orlando Ramirez/USA Today