What the Suns can expect from free-agency pickup Josh Okogie

The Phoenix Suns still have to figure out the Deandre Ayton situation and navigate blockbuster trade scenarios for Kevin Durant, but over the last few days of free agency, they’ve still been able to set their sights on rounding out the bench with cost-effective additions.

Aside from bringing back Bismack Biyombo, the Suns also landed an off-ball shooter in Damion Lee, reportedly traded for a sneaky-good backup big in Jock Landale, and signed defensive terror Josh Okogie — all for the veteran minimum.

On a minimum contract that will pay him just under $2 million, Okogie is pretty solid value. He fell pretty far down the Minnesota Timberwolves’ depth chart last season, to the point they didn’t even bother tendering him a qualifying offer that would’ve made him a restricted free agent, but he’s still only 23 years old and will fit right in with the Suns’ top-five defense.

While it’s easy to speculate about what Okogie’s arrival might mean for Mikal Bridges’ involvement in a potential KD trade, he’ll be a solid addition that will help with Phoenix’s point-of-attack defense no matter what.

The question is, what can the Suns reasonably expect from a guy who offers the world on defense but so little on offense? And can he address one of the two biggest shortcomings of his game that will continue to serve as roadblocks to cracking an actual playoff rotation?

It remains a real pleasure watching Josh Okogie play defense. I sincerely wish him a role that ignores his offensive limitations and uses him as a stopper specialist for a good team.

— brittrobson (@brittrobson) April 3, 2022

Problem area No. 1: 3-point shooting

A quick glance at Josh Okogie’s career stats reveals his biggest obstacle to carving out starter’s minutes in an NBA rotation: He just can’t get 3s to fall.

In college, Okogie was a 38.2 percent shooter from distance. But that hasn’t translated to the NBA’s longer 3-point line, as he’s a career 27.5 percent shooter from long range. He made just 29.8 percent of his 3s last year, and he has yet to crack even 30 percent in a single season through his first four years in the league.

In his defense, when his minutes shriveled up to just 10.5 per game last year, he didn’t get many opportunities. He only attempted 47 3s all season, and with such a small sample size, if he had just gotten a friendly bounce on four more of those misses, he would’ve matched his efficiency from college.

Unfortunately, those are the types of limited opportunities he’ll receive on the Suns as well, so he simply has to improve here. Okogie actually made nine of his 23 above-the-break triples last year (39.1 percent), but that seemed to be an anomaly, given that he’s made 25.8 percent of those shots for his career.

He’s better off trying to mold himself into a corner 3 guy, because even though he went 5-for-24 there last year (20.8 percent), he’s at least somewhat respectable from the corners overall, shooting 30.3 percent there for his career.

The biggest concern is how often he simply misses wide-open looks. Just look at how many defenders knew the scouting report, not even bothering to fully contest when he had the ball! This is the shot defenses are fine with conceding until Okogie starts proving them wrong:

The Bball Index placed Okogie in the 93rd percentile in 3-point shot quality last year, and 38 of his 47 attempts were “wide open,” with the nearest defender six-plus feet away. He only made 34.2 percent of those looks. Another eight attempts were on “open” 3s, with the nearest defender 4-6 feet away, and he only made one of them.

This has been a recurring theme. Of his 524 career attempts from distance, 418 of them have been “wide open” and another 94 have been “open.” And even so, with roughly 98 percent of his 3-pointers being so open, he’s made just 29.7 percent of the wide-open triples and only 20.2 percent of the open ones.

It’s plain and simple: Being unable to space the floor is a killer for any player’s minutes in the modern NBA, but especially so for a Suns team that needs to tweak its shot profile and start launching more 3s. Even as an elite defender, Josh Okogie has to become at least passable in this regard if he wants a shot at making the playoff rotation.

Problem area No. 2: Finishing at the rim

Being a defensive specialist who can’t spread the floor is one thing, but in Okogie’s case, his shooting woes are compounded by his struggles finishing around the basket.

On the surface, his shot profile fits exactly where you’d want it to be: 3s and at the rim. According to Cleaning The Glass, which filters out garbage time, Okogie took 56 percent of his shots at the rim (ranking in the 95th percentile at his position) and 37 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. That’s 93 percent of his offense coming from exactly where you’d theoretically want it to!

Okogie has ranked in the 95th percentile, 92nd percentile, 91st percentile and 82nd percentile in his percentage of shots at the rim over his first four seasons. Unfortunately, as much as he takes a good portion of his shots at the basket, he hasn’t been able to connect on enough of them.

There’s no question about his athleticism or leaping ability, but too many of his drives end in confounding, rushed fashion. Okogie often doesn’t have a plan, forcing up wild shots, trying to squeeze overly ambitious scoop layups through a crowd or simply flailing when he meets bodies in the paint:

His ball-handling isn’t quite at the level it needs to be in order to be a slasher off the wing, and a lot of his drives feel out of control. Okogie has tried to counter that at times by doing with his best Kyle Anderson impression, pulling up suddenly on drives, going into slow motion for his final two steps, or trying to spin and pivot his way past defenders with unlikely reverse flip shots.

The unfortunate difference here is Anderson is 6-foot-9, with great body control and feel for his defender’s positioning. At 6-foot-4, Okogie downshifting gears only deprives him of his athletic advantage and makes it that much easier for his attempts to be smothered.

Per Cleaning The Glass, Okogie only converted 54 percent of his shots at the rim, which ranked in the 10th percentile at his position. That was his worst season yet in this respect, and there’s a chance more limited opportunities skewed the numbers against him.

But The Bball Index paints a similarly worrisome picture, as Okogie ranked in the 40th percentile for adjusted field goal percentage at the rim, the eighth percentile in rim shot-making and the fifth percentile in rim shot quality.

Diving into the footage, there are too many examples where he just displays a lack of touch:

There’s still reason for hope, however — aside from the obvious facts that he only turns 24 in September and will be playing on the vet minimum.

Okogie ranked in the 82nd percentile in foul drawn rate on his drives, and according to Cleaning The Glass, he got fouled on 19.6 percent of his shot attempts. That ranked in the 98th percentile at his position, and being able to draw fouls could help a Suns team that ranked 29th in free-throw rate last season.

In regards to finishing, Okogie also seemed to fare better when he embraced the contact and just went through defenders, rather than trying to finesse his way around them or hurry past them:

In a league where 3-pointers and efficient shots at the rim are at a premium, Josh Okogie will need to address at least one of his two biggest shortcomings in order to carve out minutes on a title contender in Phoenix.

Elite point-of-attack defense

As bad as the offense is, Okogie is still an upside play on a minimum contract. The reason? He’s an absolutely stellar defender who can plug a number of holes in the backcourt, on the perimeter and on the wing.

For starters, Okogie has a massive 7-foot wingspan that he uses to hound opponents, strip ball-handlers and scoot right into passing lanes. He just makes things happen on defense, and The Bball Index rightfully pegs him as an elite playmaker on that end of the floor:

• 95th percentile in real adjusted turnover rate
• 86th percentile in pickpocket rating
• 93rd percentile in passing lane defense
• 97th percentile in defensive miles traveled per 75 possessions
• 96th percentile in steals per 75 possessions
• 93rd percentile in deflections per 75 possessions
• 68th percentile in blocks per 75 possessions
• 72nd percentile in percentage of rim shots contested
• 80th percentile in defensive field goal percentage at the rim vs. expected

That’s a pretty impressive combination. It’d be easy to write those rankings off since he was such a low-minutes player last year, but he’s consistently placed highly in those same categories since he first entered the league.

Everyone remembers the time he blocked James Harden’s step-back 3:

Josh Okogie is all over James Harden right now, strip and a block on these two possessions pic.twitter.com/YGz3pVcpLy

— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) February 14, 2019

But even as recently as this season, Okogie used his limited action to terrorize opponents on the defensive end with opportunistic relish.

He’s an amoebic presence if he senses the slightest bit of unease in a ball-handler’s control. He swarms with that wingspan, uses quick hands to swipe it away and reads player’s eyes to anticipate where the ball’s going next as he teleports into passing lanes:

He’s no stranger to the chase-down block either. Whether it’s from the weak-side in transition, stopping on a dime to meet a jump-shooter’s release or simply letting the driver think Okogie’s been beaten off the dribble, opponents found themselves looking over their shoulder in disbelief thanks to his great timing, leaping ability and quick recovery time.

His game-preserving block on Justin Holiday in a crunch-time win over the Indiana Pacers at the end of this clip was just the most recent example of how he can rise to the occasion with big-time defensive plays:

Josh Okogie’s union with the Suns will be a true test for his ability to stick in this league as a defensive specialist. With or without Bridges moving forward, the Suns could use some help with their point-of-attack defense, and his role on a contender may define whether he can make his offense just passable enough to allow his excellent defense to shine through.

Ranking in the 90th percentile in matchup difficulty and the 94th percentile in defensive position versatility, Okogie is the perfect guy to deploy against an opponent’s best scorer and maybe take some of the burden off Bridges. The question is whether this new arrival will be able to do enough on the other end to warrant 10-20 minutes a night when Phoenix needs a lockdown defender to inject energy into a game.