3 questions that will define Diamondbacks' final three weeks

When Diamondbacks outfielder Pavin Smith came up to hit in the seventh inning on Sunday, he had a chance to accomplish something that no major leaguer ever had.

Smith already had three homers in the game, and he was one two-run dinger away from the so-called “home run cycle” — that is, a solo homer, two-run homer, three-run homer and grand slam all in the same game. Eugenio Suárez set the table for history by hitting a single before Smith came up.

In anticlimactic fashion, Smith struck out on three pitches.

“Finally,” Houston Astros radio broadcaster Robert Ford said, “Babe Ruth is retired.”

Smith did not complete the first home run cycle in major league history on Sunday, but he did have a remarkable game. He went 3-for-4 with three homers, 8 RBI and a walk. Two of his homers, including his grand slam, came against future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander. Smith had seven RBI by the third inning, making him the fastest Diamondbacks hitter ever to reach that RBI total that early in a game.

PRIME. TIME. PAVIN. pic.twitter.com/U6ocfrImRq

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 8, 2024

With Smith doing the heavy lifting, the Diamondbacks beat the Houston Astros, 12-6, on Sunday. They avoided a sweep and gained a game on both the New York Mets and San Diego Padres in the NL wild card standings.

With three weeks left in the season, the Diamondbacks are one of four teams — the others being the Mets, Padres and Atlanta Braves — that are jockeying for three wild card spots. All four teams are within two games of each other, with the Diamondbacks occupying the second spot behind the Padres.

Despite Sunday’s success, the Diamondbacks’ once-firm hold on a playoff spot has loosened considerably over the past two weeks. Fangraphs estimates their playoff odds at 84.2 percent. They are well-positioned, but there is a lot of baseball left to be played.

Here are three questions that will go a long way in determining where they end up.

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1. Will Diamondbacks’ starting pitching turn things around?

The Diamondbacks won Sunday despite a subpar start from Ryne Nelson, but the club’s starting pitching has become a glaring problem in recent weeks.

For the season, the Diamondbacks’ 4.80 starting rotation ERA ranks 27th in baseball. Since Aug. 11 — the day that Merrill Kelly returned from a shoulder injury, making the rotation fully healthy for the first time all year — D-backs starters have a combined 5.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.

The trend only worsened in the Astros series, as Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt combined for an 8.78 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in 13 1/3 innings. None of them managed to complete five innings.

Nelson’s poor start does not warrant much concern; he has been excellent lately, with a 2.76 ERA since July 1 entering Sunday. Rodriguez and Pfaadt, on the other hand, have struggled for a while. In six starts since being activated from the injured list on Aug. 6, Rodriguez has a 5.83 ERA. Pfaadt has a 6.25 ERA in his past eight starts.

For Rodriguez, missing bats has been an issue. He has an alarming strikeout rate of just 13.5 percent. (League average is 22.5 percent.) Pfaadt has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio of 49:9 in his past eight starts, but location mistakes in the middle innings have often turned into crooked numbers.

On a more encouraging note, both Kelly and Zac Gallen looked much improved in their most recent outings. On Wednesday, Gallen tossed six no-hit innings against the San Francisco Giants. Kelly followed with seven innings of two-run ball on Thursday, his first quality start since returning from the IL.

Of course, the fact that Rodriguez and Kelly both just missed about four months with shoulder injuries should not be disregarded. It can take a while for pitchers to return to form after missing significant time. Kelly took a big step on Thursday. Perhaps Rodriguez will follow.

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2. Will the Diamondbacks’ bullpen come together?

Right now in the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, there is left-hander A.J. Puk, and then there is everyone else.

Puk has been exceptional since the Diamondbacks acquired him from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline. In 18 innings with his new team, he has a 0.50 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 28 strikeouts and just two walks. At the same time, many of the Diamondbacks’ other relievers have struggled.

Right-handed setup man Ryan Thompson has an 8.10 ERA since July 1, with a .377 opponent batting average in that span.

Power right-hander Justin Martinez, who has been manager Torey Lovullo’s go-to arm in save situations, has been scored upon in seven of his past 10 outings; opposing hitters have an .847 OPS against him in those games.

Even Kevin Ginkel, who did not allow an earned run for nearly a month from early August to early September, has now been scored upon in two his past three outings. He took the loss in Thursday’s walk-off defeat in San Francisco.

In addition to Puk, the Diamondbacks acquired another bullpen arm at the deadline in right-hander Dylan Floro. Floro has an 8.10 ERA with the Diamondbacks after posting a stellar 2.06 mark with the Washington Nationals.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks continue to look for former closer Paul Sewald to return to form. He has a 4.15 ERA in 13 innings since Lovullo decided to go elsewhere with the closer role. Lovullo has been unwilling to anoint Martinez with the “closer” title in the hope that Sewald might earn his old job back, but time is running out.

Since Sep. 1, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has a 9.91 ERA. There is plenty of time for things to change, but for the moment, this unit feels more like a liability than an asset.

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3. Will Christian Walker, Ketel Marte return to form — and when will Gabriel Moreno come back?

In Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks got two middle-of-the-order bats back from injury in the past week. Both of them looked a bit out of sorts in the box.

Walker returned Tuesday after missing about five weeks with an oblique injury. In his first week back, he went 3-for-15 with a double, two walks and five strikeouts, which works out to a .561 OPS. Marte was activated Friday after essentially missing a month with an ankle injury. He played the first two games of the Houston series, going 0-for-7 with four strikeouts.

To be fair, these sample sizes are so small that they do not warrant much concern. However, as is the case with Kelly and Rodriguez, it might take some time for Walker and Marte to find a rhythm at the plate. With just three weeks left in the season, there isn’t much time.

The other big question here is regarding catcher Gabriel Moreno, who went on the 10-day IL on Aug. 6 with a left adductor (groin) strain. The Diamondbacks have expressed confidence that Moreno will return before the end of the regular season, but they have not provided a concrete timetable.

Moreno was on a tear offensively when he went down with the injury, with a .333/.412/.476 slash line in his final 25 games. Perhaps more importantly, Moreno plays a huge role in controlling the run game, having caught 31 percent of attempting base stealers this year.

In his absence, the Diamondbacks have struggled in that regard. Opposing teams have gone 25-for-26 in stolen base attempts against rookie catcher Adrian Del Castillo. They have fared similarly against Jose Herrera, with 19 steals in 20 tries. Getting Moreno back would be a boon on both sides of the ball.

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Top photo: John Hefti/Imagn Images