5 questions that will define Diamondbacks' second half

CHICAGO — The Diamondbacks‘ first half was not exactly a success.

After finishing 84-78 last year, making the World Series and adding several significant pieces over the offseason, the club entered the All-Star break just one game over .500 at 49-48.

Nonetheless, the 2024 season remains ripe with opportunity.

Entering play on Friday, the Diamondbacks are just one game out of the third wild card spot in the National League. Much like last season, the bar to clear the NL playoff field is pretty low; the Diamondbacks are reasonably well-positioned to take advantage.

As the second half gets under way, here are five questions that will go a long way in determining the course of their season.

1. When will Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez return?

Regardless of what the Diamondbacks do at the trade deadline, the impact of getting Merrill Kelly (teres major strain) and Eduardo Rodriguez (lat strain) back from injury could be bigger.

Entering the All-Star break, Kelly and Rodriguez appeared to be on a similar trajectory. On Saturday, Kelly threw a two-inning, 32-pitch bullpen and Rodriguez threw a two-inning, 30-pitch bullpen. A return in July can be all but ruled out at this point, but it is unclear how long it will take for them to build up to a starter’s workload.

Kelly has made just four starts this season, posting a 2.19 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. Rodriguez has yet to throw a pitch for the Diamondbacks after signing a four-year contract over the winter.

Of course, this is not simply a question of when Kelly and Rodriguez return. It is also a question of how effective they will be.

This year, there are several examples across the league of good starting pitchers that went on the IL and weren’t the same when they came back.

Consider the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Bobby Miller, who posted a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts in 2023. This year, Miller hit the injured list with shoulder inflammation on April 13. After being activated on June 19, he had a 9.87 ERA in four starts. The Dodgers sent him down to Triple-A.

Another example is Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez. He missed three weeks with elbow inflammation in April. He then posted a 5.09 ERA in his first six starts after coming off the IL.

Valdez has since settled in, and his numbers now resemble his career norms. However, if and when Kelly and Rodriguez do return, they won’t have much time to find their rhythm.

2. Will Jordan Montgomery come back better after IL stint?

It is hard to imagine Jordan Montgomery‘s tenure with the Diamondbacks going much worse than it has so far.

After pitching to a stellar 3.20 ERA last year and helping lead the Texas Rangers to the World Series, Montgomery has a 6.44 ERA in 13 starts this season. Among pitchers who have thrown 60 or more innings this year, Montgomery has the third-highest ERA in baseball.

Since July 2, Montgomery has been on the IL with knee inflammation. The injury occurred during a bullpen session and does not appear to have affected any of his struggles up to that point. Still, perhaps the time away could help him iron out what has gone wrong.

Montgomery is not among the Diamondbacks’ probable starters for this weekend’s series against the Cubs. Entering the break, he was on track to return at some point on this road trip.

If he continues to struggle after returning from the IL, the Diamondbacks might be forced to look at other rotation options in what figures to be a contentious wild card race.

3. Will Corbin Carroll turn his season around?

In some ways, it is impressive that the Diamondbacks are above .500 and within shouting distance of a playoff spot given what they have gotten from Corbin Carroll, their best player a year ago.

In 404 plate appearances in the first half, Carroll hit .213/.301/.334 with five homers, 32 RBI and 18 stolen bases. It was a precipitous drop-off from the .868 OPS and 54 stolen bases that he posted in his rookie season.

Carroll did show positive signs heading into the break, however. In a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, he went 3-for-9 with two homers, seven RBI, two stolen bases and three walks.

Of course, consistency is the key. Outside of an excellent two-week stretch in June in which he posted an OPS around 1.000, Carroll has struggled to put together any kind of prolonged hot streak this season.

Remarkably, the Diamondbacks’ offense has more or less excelled anyway. Entering the break, the D-backs ranked second in baseball in runs scored, trailing only the New York Yankees. When Carroll is at his best, he makes that offense even better.

4. What will Diamondbacks do at the trade deadline?

After winning 10 of 15 games entering the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks are in clear position to buy at the trade deadline. Of course, things could change with 10 games to go until then.

As of now, it is unclear exactly what buying would look like. The Diamondbacks could use help in all facets, but the biggest question is probably whether or not they will try to add a starter.

With Rodriguez, Kelly and Montgomery all theoretically coming off the IL in the relatively near future, it might be unnecessary. Right-hander Ryne Nelson has pitched better lately, and the recently called-up Yilber Diaz has allowed just two runs in 12 innings in his first two major-league starts.

Nonetheless, until all of the D-backs’ injured starters return, the possibility of a setback remains. As discussed earlier, there is also no guarantee that they will be as effective as they were before. In that sense, adding another starter could be a valuable safety net.

Last year, the Diamondbacks were active at the deadline, but opted not to add a starter. That led to bullpen games in both the NLCS and World Series. General manager Mike Hazen regretted that after the fact.

While the level of need in the rotation is tough to pinpoint, the Diamondbacks would clearly benefit from adding a left-handed reliever to pair with Joe Mantiply; perhaps someone who misses a lot of bats in contrast to Mantiply’s contact-oriented approach.

Adding a bat could make sense as well, although third baseman Eugenio Suárez‘s strong finish to the first half made that feel like less of a need.

5. Is Eugenio Suárez’s turnaround for real?

From the start of the season through June 11, Suárez had a .575 OPS in 262 plate appearances with five homers and 30 RBI. In 105 plate appearances after that, he hit .267/.400/.512 with five homers and 18 RBI.

The Diamondbacks acquired Suárez in a trade with the Seattle Mariners over the offseason, hoping that he could give them a lift at a third base position that was a struggle for them last year.

While Suárez’s terrible two-plus months made it look like his career could be nearing an end, his surge heading into the All-Star break changed the narrative dramatically.

Suárez’s season numbers are still middling at best — he has been 10 percent below average offensively by wRC+ and his defensive metrics have taken a step back from a year ago — but he has still been a significant improvement over what the club had at third base a season ago. Last year, D-backs third basemen combined for a 75 wRC+.

While it is probably unrealistic to expect Suárez to post a .900-plus OPS the rest of the season, it bears mentioning that he is not all that far removed from being a well above-average hitter. In 2022, Suárez had a 129 OPS+ and hit 31 homers with the Mariners.

Anything close to that level of production would work wonders for the D-backs in the second half. On the flip side, if Suárez were to revert back to the hitter that he was until mid-June, the club might be best served looking elsewhere.

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Top photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic