Josh Okogie 2024-25 Suns season preview: Is this the year elite defense overcomes offensive shortcomings?

New season, new contract, new coach…but many of the same questions remain for Josh Okogie.

Namely, is this finally the year where he can just be passable enough on the offensive end so that the Phoenix Suns can reap the full benefits of his outstanding defense?

Over the next nine days, we’re going through our Suns season preview series, one-by-one, for all 17 players on the roster. That includes both a written piece for the avid readers (hello there!) and a video breakdown for the visual learners.

For Day 8, we’re diving into how Josh Okogie can help the Suns by providing stifling point-of-attack defense, wreaking havoc with highlight steals and blocks, and crashing the offensive glass…and how he can realistically mitigate his shortcomings as a poor 3-point shooter and subpar finisher at the rim.

Josh Okogie 2024-25 Suns Season Preview

Make no mistake about it, Josh Okogie is still a superb defender. The eye test confirms his nonstop level of activity on that end, as well as his ability to stick with premier ball-handlers in the backcourt.

Defensive metrics are imperfect, but Okogie has been elite in every notable defensive category in The BBall Index’s database over the last two years for a reason. From on-ball perimeter defense and ball-screen navigation to off-ball chaser and block rate on contests, Okogie has ranked near the top of the league in every single defensive category over the last two seasons:

If that weren’t enough, Okogie also ranked in the 91st percentile in deflections per 75 possessions, the 88th percentile in passing lane defense and the 93rd percentile in pickpocket rating. But don’t just take the word of a nerd and his analytics!

Watching the film, Okogie is a master of mayhem, surprising ball-handlers with weak-side double-teams and showing great timing and instincts when reading passing lanes.

Aside from tenacious point-of-attack defense, Okogie is also an imposing shot-blocker for a 6-foot-4 guard. Even when it feels like he’s beat off the dribble, he’s never truly out of a play, flying in for chase-down recovery blocks.

Okogie uses his 7-foot wingspan and leaping ability well, meeting dunkers at the apex and turning back jump shooters on isos. His block on Jalen Green’s jumper and ensuing dunk going the other way might go down as one of the most underrated plays in Suns history, but even the less flashy plays show how often he blocks jump shooters:

Role players always have to prove themselves under a new head coach, and despite Frank Vogel being a defensive-minded coach, Okogie’s role waned as last season went on. Some of that was due to health, as he missed a few weeks in December and in March with a hip injury, but he’ll have to prove himself under a new coach once again.

Fortunately, Mike Budenholzer values the defensive end, and Okogie’s point-of-attack defense will always keep him in the mix for spot minutes at least.

“Of course, man, anytime that your skill-set is something that your coach usually wants, it gives you a little more confidence to go out there and do that every night,” Okogie told PHNX Sports over the summer. “And obviously, just the Phoenix Suns in general, as a front office, man, they give me the confidence to go out there and just do what I do night in and night out.”

According to a source, the Suns beat out a few other suitors in free agency for Josh Okogie’s services. The structure of his new contract obviously makes him a potential trade candidate, but Phoenix still values what he brings to the table and his room for growth at age 26.

“When the season ends, you kind of debrief and try to clear your mind from the season and step away from it for a little bit,” Okogie explained. “Then free agency opens up and you kind of just weigh your options. But for me, I love Phoenix, the community, the fans, the people, the organization — top to bottom, from Mat [Ishbia] all the way down to the security people that hold down the practice facility and the Footprint Center. I love everything about this area.

“So I wanted to see if there was a way to make it work, and apparently, the feelings were mutual on both sides.”

How Josh Okogie can mitigate his offensive flaws

However, the question remains the same for Josh Okogie entering Year 3 with the Suns and Year 7 in the NBA: Is this the season where his offense can just be adequate enough to keep him on the floor?

Come playoff time, it’s hard to see Okogie cracking Budenholzer’s eight- or-nine man rotation, unless there’s an injury or the Suns really need a stop with a lockdown defender in the backcourt. But for that to happen, he has to be closer to league-average as a 3-point shooter, which has been his biggest area for improvement for a while now.

Okogie is a career 29.3 percent 3-point shooter, and he’s never shot better than 33.5 percent from deep in a season, which was his first year in Phoenix. But instead of building on that step in the right direction, last year, he dipped back down to 30.9 percent. His attempts looked a lot more confident, but there were still times where he’d hesitate and not shoot at all.

That won’t fly in a revamped offense that wants to get up more 3s and has gotten up 85 triples through two preseason games. Last year, Okogie only shot 30 percent on corner 3s and 30.2 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s. The worst part is, he struggled to convert despite ranking in the 96th percentile in 3-point shot quality and the 99th percentile openness rating on 3s.

As you might notice from these clips from over the last two years, opponents were more than happy to leave him wide open, even in the playoffs. He has to knock these types of shots down if he wants to stay on the floor.

Oddly enough, Okogie was actually passable when he took his 3s earlier in the shot clock. But when it came to long-range attempts within the final seven seconds, his percentage plummeted, per NBA.com. “Seven Seconds Or Less” worked for Steve Nash’s Suns, but not so much for the shot clock and Josh Okogie 3s:

• Josh Okogie 3-pointers with 7 seconds or less on shot clock: 5-for-28 (17.9%)
• Josh Okogie 3-pointers with 8 seconds or more on shot clock: 24-for-65 (36.9%)

So far in preseason, Okogie is showing the same willingness to shoot that we’ve seen from the entire Suns roster under coach Bud. In Phoenix’s first game, Okogie led the team in scoring with 15 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 assists in 16 minutes off the bench, but more importantly, he shot 6-for-9 overall and went 2-for-3 from deep. Even in preseason, it was another example of the impact he can make when he’s just respectable on offense.

The following game, it was the other end of the spectrum. Okogie finished with 4 points and 2 rebounds in 18 minutes, shooting 2-for-7 overall and 0-for-2 from deep. Phoenix was ahead for most of the night, so that may have factored into his performance a bit, but Okogie has to make defenses pay for leaving him open if he wants to stay on the floor.

The reason for that is he’s not the best finisher around the rim either. His driving and cutting are welcome additions for a team that needs to put more pressure on the basket this year, but when he gets in the lane, the result is usually either an overly ambitious layup attempt, or a slow-motion Euro-step that often ends in a forced, backwards-falling shot through contact.

Okogie can finish above the rim with a full head of steam, but he only shot 54.5 percent at the basket, which is where 90 of his 206 shots came from last year. He ranked in the 20th percentile among guards in rim finishing, per Cleaning The Glass, and while there’s something to be said for drawing contact, a lot of times, it led to flubbed shot attempts like these:

So what can Okogie realistically contribute on offense? Hopefully he can get closer to league-average percentages as a 3-point shooter, first and foremost. Maybe developing a floater would help when he gets in the lane, but it’s difficult to see that development coming midseason.

More than likely, Budenholzer will have to find ways to harness Okogie as a screener, short roll playmaker and constant cutter. The Suns want to play random, and the hope is that they’ll have enough shooters on the court to provide more gravity and spacing for Okogie’s cutting, Keep in mind, this is a guy who ranked in the 98th percentile in cut points per shot last year, but only in the 52nd percentile in cuts per 75 possessions.

Upping that frequency will help, and giving Okogie free rein to crash the offensive glass will too, since he’s a committed, persistent presence on the offensive boards. You can just see his activity and how he sizes up the shot before exploding toward the ball with great timing.

Okogie ranked in the 98th percentile in both offensive rebounding crashing skill and offensive rebounding talent last year, and among all qualified players 6-foot-4 and under, he ranked second in the entire league in offensive rebounds per 75 possessions. Even when he doesn’t get the put-back, generating second-chance opportunities for this high-powered Suns offense would feel unfair.

Will that be enough to earn Josh Okogie a consistent role, especially come playoff time, when spacing around the Big 3 will be pivotal? It’s hard to believe that will happen until we actually see it, but Okogie is still a useful role player who can come in and get stops. that might be something the Suns’ backcourt needs more of behind Tyus Jones, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen.

In any case, Okogie is fully bought in on his new head coach and what this team might become.

“It gives you confidence going into the season, knowing that your coach has a plan and something that, [if] you follow it, could end up in something like he has had, a championship,” Okogie said. “So it makes it easier to follow directions and it makes it easier for him to lead as well.”

More 2024-25 Suns season previews

• Collin Gillespie: Written breakdown | Video breakdown
• TyTy Washington: Written breakdown | Video breakdown
• Jalen Bridges: Written breakdown | Video breakdown
• Ryan Dunn: Written breakdown | Video breakdown
• Oso Ighodaro: Written breakdown | Video breakdown
• Bol Bol: Written breakdown | Video breakdown
• Damion Lee: Written breakdown | Video breakdown