A look at Diamondbacks postseason clinch scenarios with 2 games remaining

The Diamondbacks had an opportunity this weekend to stamp their postseason ticket without help from anyone else. But with a 5-3 loss to the San Diego Padres on Friday, they no longer control their own destiny.

For the first time since July 30, the Diamondbacks are not in position to make the postseason. They are in a virtual tie with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves for the second and third wild card spots in the National League. They lose the tiebreaker with both teams.

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo is starting to talk like his back is against the wall.

“We know what we’re fighting for,” Lovullo said after Friday’s game. “A lot of people are asking me certain questions about the stability of our team, are we okay. We’re great. We’re fine when it comes to prepping and expecting to go out and have good things happen. Can’t explain it sometimes. Baseball’s a crazy game. We know it’s there. We didn’t get the victory today. We sure as hell are gonna do all we can to get one tomorrow.”

While the Diamondbacks lost on Friday, the Braves beat the Kansas City Royals at home and the Mets lost to the Milwaukee Brewers on the road. The Mets’ loss was a big deal because it helped the Padres secure the top NL wild card spot. Now, the Padres have nothing to play for the rest of the weekend.

The Diamondbacks finish their regular season with two more games against San Diego. The Mets and Braves have two more each against Milwaukee and Kansas City, respectively, before finishing up with a doubleheader against each other on Monday. That doubleheader is the result of weather-related postponements that occurred over the past week due to rain that preceded Hurricane Helene.

Were it not for the doubleheader, the Diamondbacks’ path to a postseason berth would be clear. With it, there are 10 different clinching scenarios in play. Here’s a look at all 10, broken down by the record the Diamondbacks would need to achieve them.

If D-backs go 2-0…	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets
Clinch Scenario #1	Lose 1 game to Royals
Clinch Scenario #2		Lose 1 game to Brewers
Clinch Scenario #3	Sweep Mets in doubleheader
Clinch Scenario #4		Sweep Braves in doubleheader

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2-0: Diamondbacks have a good chance but need help

If the Diamondbacks win both of their final games against San Diego, the odds are in their favor.

In order to clinch by Sunday — which is preferable for reasons we’ll get to in a moment — they would simply need one loss this weekend from either the Braves or Mets.

Both the Royals and Brewers have already clinched postseason spots, so both will likely rest key players. However, it doesn’t seem all that farfetched that either the Mets or Braves could lose once.

Even if the Mets and Braves both go 2-0, the D-backs could still clinch on Monday when the Mets and Braves play their doubleheader. In that case, the D-backs would need one of the teams to sweep the other. If the two teams split, the D-backs would be eliminated.

Unfortunately for the D-backs, the situation naturally lends itself to a split. Whichever team wins the first game would clinch a postseason spot and therefore have no incentive to play its best players in the second game.

Of course, there is always a chance that the team that empties its bench beats the team that is doing everything it can to win. But the D-backs would do well to clinch by Sunday and avoid the sketchy doubleheader scenario altogether.

Note that if the Diamondbacks go 2-0 this weekend, they cannot be eliminated any sooner than Monday.

If D-backs go 1-1…	Atlanta Braves		New York Mets
Clinch Scenario #5	Lose 1 game to Royals	and	Lose 2 games to Brewers
Clinch Scenario #6	Lose 2 games to Royals	and	Lose 1 game to Brewers
Clinch Scenario #7	Lose 3 of 4 games overall
Clinch Scenario #8			Lose 3 of 4 games overall

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1-1: slim chance, could be eliminated Sunday

If the Diamondbacks go 1-1 against the Padres, they could still make the postseason, but they would need a lot of help. Either the Mets or Braves would have to lose three of their four remaining games.

Since the Mets-Braves doubleheader guarantees two combined losses, the Diamondbacks — even at 1-1 — could clinch on Sunday. To do that, they would need the Mets to lose one of their remaining weekend games and the Braves to lose both, or vice versa (the Mets lose both and the Braves lose one).

If the Diamondbacks go 1-1, and the Braves and Mets both go 2-0 over the weekend, the D-backs would be eliminated by Sunday.

If the Diamondbacks made it to Monday but had not yet clinched, a similar scenario as described earlier would play out. Either the Diamondbacks would need a team that had already clinched a spot to win both games against a team that was fighting for its life, or the Diamondbacks would need a split when the winner of the first game had no incentive to win the second game. (Did I mention that it’s important to clinch by Sunday?)

According to multiple reports, Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred could cancel Monday’s doubleheader altogether if the Diamondbacks were already eliminated.

As a side note, the potential for that outcome could incentivize the Brewers to keep the Diamondbacks in the race. The Brewers will play the third wild card team in the Wild Card Series starting on Tuesday, so they would stand to gain if their opponent had to play in a doubleheader the day prior. Perhaps they will continue to play some of their better players against the Mets as a result.

If D-backs go 0-2…	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets
Clinch Scenario #9	Lose all 4 games
Clinch Scenario #10		Lose all 4 games

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0-2: hope for a Braves or Mets collapse

The only way that the Diamondbacks could go 0-2 and make the playoffs is if either the Mets or Braves lost all four of their remaining games.

In this case, there would be no way for the Diamondbacks to clinch by Sunday, and the only way that the Diamondbacks would avoid elimination on Sunday is if at least one of the Mets or Braves lost both of their games over the weekend.

Even then, the Monday doubleheader would work against the D-backs yet again. They would either be reliant on a team that has already clinched to sweep, or they would be reliant on the team that wins the first game to also win the second even though there would be no reason to try.

Suffice it to say that if the Diamondbacks finish 0-2, there is a very good chance that their season is over.

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Top photo: Joe Camporeale/Imagn Images