In-Season Tournament: Suns scenarios to clinch spot in Emirates NBA Cup

The Phoenix Suns have Saturday’s game against Golden State Warriors to worry about first, but in terms of the Emirates NBA Cup, Tuesday’s showdown with the San Antonio Spurs will play a major role in determining whether they qualify for the league’s In-Season Tournament.

However, there are several other factors in play, and the Suns could qualify for the knockout rounds as either the winner of Group B or the Western Conference wild card, which is how they got in last year.

Over the last few weeks, specially designated games on Tuesdays and Fridays have counted toward this NBA Cup, with the quarterfinals scheduled for Dec. 10-11. Sporting a 2-1 record and a +19 point differential through their first three group play games, the Suns have a chance to win their group with a victory against San Antonio on Tuesday, and they’ll be in the running for the West’s wild card spot as well.

The NBA’s attempt to inject extra meaning into the early stages of its winding regular season has been an oddly controversial topic, but make no mistake about it: Just like last year, the Suns want to get in and win the NBA Cup.

This week, Booker admitted after the Suns’ NBA Cup win over the Los Angeles Lakers that they were keeping an eye on the point differential — echoing his thoughts from last year on this In-Season Tournament.

“It’s just something that’s different, man,” Devin Booker had said. “I think it’s evolving the game, it’s growing the game. I don’t know the stat on it, but I feel like the games have been higher intensity, something to play for — maybe that half a million dollars everybody wants. But it’s been fun, I like it.”

At their worst, NBA Cup games have been elevated regular-season games dressed up in fancier wrapping (with mostly uglier courts). At their best, they’ve been more competitive outings, adding some extra spice to the portion of the sports calendar where most fans are still glued to football.

“For the fans, it’s an opportunity to know that there’s more at stake throughout the regular season, ’cause fans only want to watch the playoffs and the series and the high-intense moments,” Kevin Durant explained last year. “So the NBA creating a high-intense moment in a regular season since a lot of fans were complaining about stuff like that years prior. So hopefully they enjoy it this year. I know the players are gonna come out and try to play as hard as they can every game and make for a good product on the floor.”

Coach Mike Budenholzer was out of the league last year when the In-Season Tournament began, but his first experiences with the NBA Cup have been positive too.

“I think it’s good,” Budenholzer said on Tuesday. “I could tell you what it was like from a distance. I was super positive as somebody who was out of the league last year. Now going into our third game, the players today and talking about it and just watching the league, I think it’s really good for the league. I think they’ve done a good job of creating something that has more interest and value and we’re playing for something a little more during the season.”

The question is, what has to happen for the Suns to be among the eight teams — four in the West, four in the East — that qualify for the knockout rounds?

Clinching scenarios for Suns in Emirates NBA Cup

First, here are the ground rules: There are six groups (three in each conference), and the winner of each group automatically qualifies for the eight-team knockout stage. The last two slots are filled by one wild card team per conference, which means pitting the second-best team of each Western Conference group against each other.

The first tiebreaker is record, followed by point differential. Then it’s total points scored in the group stage (excluding any overtime points), followed by each team’s regular-season record from last season, and finally, a random drawing if necessary.

Heading into the final day of group play on Tuesday, Dec. 3, here are the standings for Phoenix’s group, Group B:

1. San Antonio Spurs: 2-1 record, +14 point differential
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: 2-1 record, +18 point differential
3. Phoenix Suns: 2-1 record, +19 point differential
4. Los Angeles Lakers: 2-2 record, -24 point differential
5. Utah Jazz: 0-3 record, -27 point differential

Don’t worry too much about those top three spots yet, because all three of those teams have a chance to win Group B based on Tuesday’s matchups.

The Thunder may have the easiest path to winning Group B, since their remaining game is against the Utah Jazz. At 15-4, OKC is the top team in the Western Conference so far season, while the Jazz are 14th in the West at 4-14 and have yet to win a game in NBA Cup group play.

A win over Utah would push the Thunder to 3-1. If the Suns beat the Spurs, they would also be 3-1. However, OKC would still win the group in that scenario, because the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, and the Thunder beat Phoenix in their group play matchup on Nov. 15.

However, even if OKC beats Utah, in the event the Suns lose to the Spurs, San Antonio would actually win Group B. Both the Spurs and the Thunder would move to 3-1 in that scenario, but San Antonio beat OKC in their head-to-head matchup on Nov. 19, so they would have the tiebreaker to win the group.

For the Suns to win Group B, they have to beat the Spurs on Tuesday, and they have to hope that Utah somehow pulls off an improbable upset against OKC. Phoenix would be the only 3-1 team in that scenario.

But let’s assume the Thunder take care of business against the Jazz, which eliminates any possibility of Phoenix winning Group B outright. At that point, the Suns have to beat San Antonio — and get a little help — to earn a wild card spot.

In this scenario, OKC wins Group B with a 3-1 record and the tiebreaker over Phoenix. The Suns improve to 3-1 to become Group B’s wild card contender, at which point their competition would be any second-place team from Group A or Group C that also finishes with a 3-1 record.

In Group A, the Houston Rockets (3-0) have already clinched the No. 1 spot in their group. The Suns’ main competition would be the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 2-1 in group play and face the LA Clippers (1-2 in group play) on Tuesday.

If the Clippers beat the Blazers, both of those teams wind up 2-2, and Portland would fall short of Phoenix’s 3-1 record. If Portland and Phoenix both win, they’ll both be 3-1, but the Blazers would have a lot of ground to make up on the next tiebreaker, which is point differential.

Heading into Tuesday’s action, the Blazers have a -5 point differential, while the Suns are +19. That means if Phoenix beats San Antonio by 1 point, Portland would have to beat LA by 26 to overtake the Suns in point differential. So if the Suns beat the Spurs by 10, the Blazers would have to beat the Clippers by 35, and so on and so forth. Phoenix should be okay on that front, unless LA is a complete no-show against Portland.

In the other group, the Golden State Warriors (3-0) have already clinched Group C heading into their final matchup against the Denver Nuggets (1-2) on Tuesday. The Dallas Mavericks (2-1) are Group C’s main threat to Phoenix for that wild card spot and will face the Memphis Grizzlies (1-2) in their final group play game. The Mavs are a formidable threat too, thanks to their massive +41 point differential.

If Dallas beats Memphis, they’ll have a 3-1 record, and the worst possible point differential they could have is +42. That means the Suns would have to blow the Spurs out by 23 points just to bump their +19 up far enough to tie Dallas in point differential.

At that point, the next tiebreaker would be total points scored in group play. Dallas is currently at 372, while the Suns are at 330. That means that in the event Phoenix ties the Mavs in point differential, they’d also have to score 43 points more than whatever Dallas scores on Tuesday.

So if both Phoenix and Dallas win, the Suns’ best path is passing the Mavs in point differential outright. To do so, they’d need to beat San Antonio by 23 more points than whatever Dallas beats Memphis by. So if the Mavs won by 10, the Suns would need to win by 33. If the Mavs won by 20, the Suns would need to win by 43, and so on and so forth.

Long story short: For Phoenix to win Group B on Tuesday, Suns fans should be rooting for a win over San Antonio, as well as a Jazz upset over the Thunder. If OKC dispatches the lowly Jazz, then Suns fans should root for a Blazers loss to the Clippers (or a Blazers win that isn’t an absolute rout), as well as a Mavericks loss to the Grizzlies.

And if the Thunder, Suns, Blazers and Mavs all win on Tuesday, Suns fans will have to hope that Portland (-5) doesn’t find a way to catch Phoenix (+19) in point differential, and they’ll have to pray the Suns can somehow pass Dallas in that category (+41).

And of course, if the Suns lose to the Spurs on Tuesday and fall to 2-2 in group play, they’ll miss out on the NBA Cup no matter what.