👋 GOOD MORNING

Friday, Jan. 24, 2025 — Happy Friday, and happy NFL conference championship weekend! Both the NFC and AFC will battle it out on Sunday for a trip to New Orleans, and I want to hear your predictions, so be sure to take our poll at the bottom of this email!

Meanwhile, as we all wait to see if the Suns will make a move, there are several key matchups on the college court this weekend. Fresh off their first win over a ranked opponent this season, a 66-57 triumph at No. 23 West Virginia, the Sun Devils host No. 3 Iowa State at Desert Financial Arena. Can they make it two straight while putting together a statement win in the Big 12? The opportunity is there.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, have won eight of their last nine, and have a home-game tuneup against the 9-9 Colorado Buffaloes, who have yet to earn their first conference win this season, on Saturday. Iowa State looms large, though, as the No. 3 Cyclones make the trek to Tucson for a Monday night showdown after their matchup against ASU in Tempe. That game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Thanks for reading this week, as always, and if you need a joke to get you through to the weekend, here you go: Did you hear about the excitement over the new Lego store? People lined up for blocks!

Let’s run it back next week. On to the show!

How Each Remaining NFL Team Can Earn a Super Bowl Berth

Get ready for an incredible day of football.

Both of the NFL’s conference championship games kick off on Sunday, and one Cinderella team remains: The Washington Commanders. Washington has won seven straight games, including last week’s triumph in the NFC Divisional matchup against the top-seeded Detroit Lions.

Can Jayden Daniels keep up the magic, or will it end on the road against the second-seeded Eagles? Will Kansas City win another conference championship and head to the Super Bowl for the third straight season, or will Josh Allen and the Bills finally get over the hump?

Here’s what to watch on Sunday.

NFC Conference Championship is a Cinderella Story vs. Another Favorite

Matchup: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Season Head-to-Head: 1-1
bet365 Spread: Eagles (-6.0)
Where to Watch: Sunday, 1 pm, CBS / Paramount+

How the Eagles can win: In Saquon Barkley Philly trusts. The wildly talented running back has been setting records all season, and he leads all postseason rushers with 324 yards in two games. He performed well against Washington earlier this season, combining for 296 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, while also chipping in two receptions for 52 yards. It should also be noted that the Eagles did not have quarterback Jalen Hurts when the two teams met on Dec. 22 — a game Washington won 36-33 after rallying for 22 points in the fourth quarter.

Philadelphia is loaded with weapons, and a look at the Commanders’ defense last week gives plenty of reason for optimism. Washington beat Detroit 45-31 last week despite allowing 521 total yards of offense, but still forced five turnovers en route to a historic upset. The Eagles’ defense allowed 290 total yards to Green Bay in their 22-10 win last week, and have a good shot at winning a conference championship and appearing in their second Super Bowl in three years if they can take care of the ball.

How the Commanders can win: There’s not much of a secret formula here – Daniels needs to be as perfect as he was last week. Washington was stuffed on fourth down in their opening drive against the Lions, but Daniels methodically picked apart Detroit’s defense in every subsequent drive to reach their first conference championship game since 1991. He was 22-for-31 for 299 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Brian Robinson Jr. led the ground attack with 77 yards and two touchdowns.

If Daniels and Co. take care of the ball the same way they did against the Lions, the Cinderella story could continue into New Orleans in two weeks. The defense was opportunistic against Detroit last week, and will need to capitalize in the same fashion to emerge victorious with a conference championship in tow. Daniels has demonstrated poise, control and talent well beyond his years, so no matter the outcome, it appears Washington is in a really good spot for years to come.

AFC Conference Championship Puts Familiar Foes Against Each Other

Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Season Head-to-Head: 1-0 Bills (30-21 win on Nov. 17)
bet365 Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
Where to Watch: Sunday, 4:30 pm, FOX

How the Chiefs can win: Just keep doing what they’re doing. Discounting a lopsided 38-0 loss to Denver in Week 18 — in which the Chiefs basically fielded their second-team players — Kansas City defeated every opponent it saw with one exception: The Bills. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is unbeaten against Buffalo in his playoff career (3-0), and he will have to be his usual championship-caliber self in order to send the Chiefs to their third consecutive Super Bowl, and fifth in six years.

Kansas City escaped its Divisional matchup against Houston in crazy fashion — the Texans out-gained the Chiefs 336-212 without committing a single turnover — and Kansas City was unable to establish any sort of advantage on the ground, rushing for just 50 yards on 22 attempts. Buffalo’s defense was in the middle of the pack during the regular season, allowing 341.5 yards per game, so Mahomes and Co. will need to take advantage of facing a defensive unit less suffocating than the Texans to yet again reach the promised land.

How the Bills can win: Replicate the Week 11 success. Buffalo won that showdown by forcing two Mahomes interceptions, limiting the experienced offense to 259 total yards, including just 78 on the ground. The Bills sacked Mahomes twice in that contest, and their offensive line was just as good considering Allen rushed for 55 yards and one touchdown on 12 carries without allowing a single sack.

And that brings us to who will need to be the star of the show: Allen. The quarterback had an MVP-caliber season, but needs to exorcise some demons against the mighty Chiefs in order to proper the Bills back into the Super Bowl for the first time since 1994, when they lost their fourth straight attempt at a league crown. His previous postseason matchups against KC have not been awful:

• 2024 AFC Divisional Round: 186 yards passing, 1 TD, 72 yards rushing, 2 TD
• 2021 AFC Divisional Round: 329 yards passing, 4 TD, 68 yards rushing
• 2020 AFC Conference Championship: 287 yards passing, 2 TD, 1 interception, 88 yards rushing

Running back James Cook rushed for 1,009 yards during the regular season, and if he can establish a secondary element for the Bills’ offense, they may punch their ticket to New Orleans with a memorable run to a conference championship.

Full PHNX Coverage

🧢 TIP OF THE HAT BY BRANDED BILLS

Just sit back and enjoy this shot from Jokic. Unreal!