Bracketology: What to know as ASU women’s basketball chases first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2020

TEMPE – On the bubble. Last four in. Quad one wins. As February nears its end and March inches closer, those bracketology terms enter the minds of college basketball fans, especially followers of the Arizona State women’s basketball program. 

To stay up to date, NCAA hoops fans religiously check websites tracking the projected bracket for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. These websites, which are constantly updated, typically list what the field would look like if the season ended on that day. 

With ASU sitting as the so-called first team out, and further fluctuation expected, Sun Devils fans may be wondering how bracketologists predict the selection committee’s picks.

Those predictions come from a list of 12 criteria that the committee has said it uses to pick the field of 68.

The criteria are:

1. Bad losses
2. Common opponents 
3. Competitive in losses
4. Early performance versus late performance
5. Head-to-head
6. Observable component
7. Overall record
8. Regional rankings
9. Significant wins
10. Strength of schedule

Alongside them are two more with the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) and new in 2025-26, wins above bubble. The latter has existed in evaluating the men’s tournament, but is new this season for the women’s tournament.

Per the NCAA’s website, “WAB shows how many more or fewer wins a team has compared to what a bubble team would average against that same schedule.”

When it comes to evaluating the wins-above-bubble impact, ESPN’s lead bracketologist, Charlie Creme, isn’t quite sure.

“We don’t really know,” Creme said. “I think it’s going to play a pretty significant role in determining those last few teams in and those teams that don’t quite make the tournament. Usually, what we work from is the data that’s presented, the numerous games that we watch, but also decisions that the committee makes based on their history.

“We don’t have any history on wins above bubble. So to some degree, this is going to be our evaluation year.”

ASU’s 9-7 conference record ranks eighth in the Big 12, with games against BYU at home Wednesday and on the road against No. 20 Texas Tech on Sunday to close out the regular-season schedule.

For the Sun Devils, a spot right on the bubble keeps fans religiously active in the process of checking the bracketology.

With question marks surrounding ASU’s tournament chances, the remaining two games will decide the importance of the Big 12 Women’s Basketball Tournament that begins March 4 at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. 

A win against Texas Tech could lift the Sun Devils high enough to confirm an at-large bid, but taking care of business in Kansas City would give them even more help.

However, some of the factors that could impact ASU are out of its control. Being on the bubble, the performance of the surrounding teams will affect ASU’s standing in the tournament.

Of the 16 teams on the bubble, only three come from non-power conferences, with 10 teams split between the Big 12 and ACC. 

“Utah, Colorado, Arizona State, then you get Clemson, Stanford, Virginia, Virginia Tech, all from the same two leagues,” Creme said. “So while the Big 12 tournament is going on, I would suggest all the fans of those Big 12 teams watch the ACC tournament as well. Get that second screen up and watch that ACC tournament.”

Currently sitting as the first team out, ASU has moved around the bracketology board in 2025-26. The Sun Devils were projected as high as a No. 9 seed in January and have jumped in and out of tournament spots in February, most recently being moved out of the tournament on Tuesday’s update.

On the back end of ASU’s regular season, coach Molly Miller is not ignoring the team’s standing in bracketology.

An important win against Utah on Feb. 11 might serve as a deciding factor in ASU’s fate. The Sun Devils are one place above Utah in bracketology. After the victory, Miller highlighted the team’s mentality.

“If this was the last game on our schedule, it might have been the one that gets us into the NCAA Tournament,” Miller said. “We have to play every game like that. And (the players) are aware of that. We talk about it. Pressure is a privilege. We talk about where we’re at. We look at the rankings. We look at how important these games are.”

While Miller keeps an eye on rankings, her players continue to play off their importance. For senior guard Gabby Elliott, who leads the team in scoring, the priority is finishing out the season strong.

“That has to be our main focus statement, ‘one thing at a time,’” Elliott said. “At the end we can figure out where we sit and how to go about March, but it starts with finishing Big 12 strong.” 

With the regular season nearing its end, Miller sees the importance of preparing her players for each game. As time dwindles on the challenge that is a college basketball season, she believes her team is ready.

“February is the dog days of the season,” Miller said. “It’s gotten long, it’s a grind, but we’ve managed our practices really well. We’re not going long, but we’re going intense. The intensity never falters when we practice.” 

This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.