Phoenix Rising could be only one week away from mathematical elimination after a 2-1 road loss to New Mexico United saw the team remain in 11th place.

Kelvin Arase‘s second half goal cancelled out Greg Hurst‘s opener for the hosts in Albuquerque. However, a powerful strike from Cullen Wilkerson ultimately denied Rising any share of the spoils.

Chances, but not enough

Sunday afternoon’s game was not a story of Phoenix Rising failing to work the ball into dangerous areas.

It was, however, a story of them failing to capitalize on the chances created.

Over the course of 90 minutes, Rising amassed a sum of 1.96 expected goals (xG) and took a total of 24 shots. However, the side managed to score only one goal, not least because only five shots taken were on target.

Among the most notable of the misses was Kelvin Arase in the 28th minute from six yards out. However, the Austrian winger later made amends with the equalizing goal in the second half.

“I think it was a game where we fought hard, created a lot of chances,” Phoenix Rising coach Pa-Modou Kah said in club-sourced quotes. “Obviously, when you create chances, you have to take ’em. And the goals that we gave away were gifted, but overall I’m very proud of the performance from the boys. They gave all they have, and we came up short, but that is part of football. What we can do now is just dust ourselves and keep going.”

Loaned from Phoenix Rising, and making them pay

When Charlie Dennis‘ loan move from Phoenix Rising to New Mexico United was announced just four weeks ago, the fan reaction was far from positive.

In particular, fans expressed disappointment that Dennis had been sent to a club rival, especially one that Rising still had left on the fixture list.

Their fears came true as the lineups were announced on Sunday. While some loan agreements, including all of those in certain competitions overseas such as the Premier League, explicitly bar players from featuring against their parent clubs, Dennis was free to line up against Phoenix Rising in a must-win match for the Arizonan side.

As such, he started alongside another former Rising player in Greg Hurst in New Mexico’s attack.

Within five minutes, both players made Phoenix pay. Dennis drew defenders before setting up Hurst for the opening goal.

Dennis’ overall performance was described as his “best United outing overall” by a reporter for the Albuquerque Journal, and he was substituted for in the second half.

The playoff picture

Despite the loss, Phoenix Rising remain at five points behind the playoff places thanks to San Antonio’s loss to the Las Vegas Lights on the weekend.

With nine points left to play for, Rising is now officially eliminated from contention for a top four spot, meaning that even if the team makes the playoffs, they will have to travel for a first round matchup. Lexington currently sits in 4th, the final host spot, on 43 points compared to Rising’s 33.

So what are the elimination scenarios?

If Phoenix Rising loses to Las Vegas, then it’s simple. A San Antonio win over Oakland Roots would move the Texan side to 41 points, greater than the 39 points attainable by Rising. Orange County, already on 39 points, would be uncatchable due to the first tiebreaker being in-conference wins (Orange County currently has eight to Rising’s five). Therefore, Rising would be eliminated.

If Rising draws, it’s more complicated. Phoenix’s maximum number of points would rise to 40, level with the current total of Colorado Springs. In such a case, any points gained by the Switchbacks (versus Sacramento) and Orange County (versus El Paso) would make them uncatchable by Rising, while San Antonio would still need to win.

Regardless of the outcome of next weekend, Phoenix Rising is unlikely to have a comfortable end to the regular season.

Owain’s take

Tick. Tick. Tick.

With each passing game, Phoenix Rising feels closer to the inevitable.

“They weren’t that bad,” you can say to yourself. Well, you may, if you weren’t already disillusioned after watching an entire year’s worth of football from this team.

Because Rising’s effort in Albuquerque was, in effect, the 2026 season in microcosm. You can see the moments that should give you hope, but errors lead to Phoenix shooting themselves in the foot again. At the end of it all, you come away with nothing but frustration and resentment. The potential, whatever it was, simply doesn’t materialize into anything tangible enough.

There’s a very real risk now that Phoenix Rising’s season doesn’t materialize into anything tangible either. The only thing that stops me from describing them as dead men walking is my utter lack of trust in the teams around them to take care of business.

A week from now, that could all be resolved mathematically. And even if the team makes the playoffs, they will once again be on the road in the postseason. You have to go back to 2021 — five whole years ago — to find the last time that Phoenix Rising hosted a playoff match.

For a supposedly top team in the USL Championship, that is a resounding failure.

This year has been marked by Rising as its tenth season, noting of course the rebrand from Arizona United ahead of 2017. The “Decade in the Desert” celebration will go down as yet another failure in recent years, and perhaps it’s for the best that the club didn’t make more of a fuss about it after all. There’s little about this season that Phoenix fans are actually going to want to remember.

The reality of Rising’s tenth anniversary season is one of sparse crowds at home. It’s one of continued distrust between the fanbase and the people running the club, culminating in the scenes of supporters and players arguing after the last home game. It’s one of a club that is continuing to regress on the field, potentially to the point of not even making the postseason this year.

Because let’s face it: in what aspect, on or off the field, has this club progressed since 2024 and its failed Campeones Tour? It seems genuinely hard to point to one. The story of the tenth season of Phoenix Rising is one of a club that burst onto the scene in spectacular fashion, but doesn’t seem to really have a clue as to what exactly comes next nor how to deal with the challenges of maturing as a club when they present themselves.

Are there ideas? It certainly doesn’t feel like it.

The footballing issues will end with fingers pointed at the head coach and sporting director. But as the season post mortem is written, potentially just a couple of weeks from now, fingers also have to be pointed elsewhere within the organization for what appears as nothing short than failure after failure across the board for a club that once viewed itself as a standard bearer within the second division.

That’s all big picture stuff. It’s not something that’ll be resolved next week, either on the field or off of it. But it’s important to think about, regardless.

For now, it’s another must-win game against a Las Vegas Lights team that is looking for a playoff spot at Rising’s expense.

And if Phoenix Rising can’t pull off that win next weekend? That clock is going to keep on ticking closer and closer to a premature season end.

Tick. Tick. Tick.

Top image: New Mexico United