Expectations can be a funny thing. And in recent years, the Phoenix Suns have had quite the relationship with them.

To have the good kind of expectations placed upon you, you have to show you’re worthy, but the reward for meeting — or exceeding — those expectations, are more expectations. Expectations that are higher and loftier ones.

If you don’t meet those new expectations? Well, you’re a disappointment.

Last season, Phoenix was expected to disappoint. Ironically, the team failed at meeting that expectation, becoming one of the league’s most pleasant surprises by outdoing all projections, even the forecasts of some of its biggest believers.

Surely, the team that rang off 45 wins and earned an NBA Playoff berth showed enough to be worthy of much higher expectations the following season? Not according to the experts, they haven’t.

After a year of proving themselves, the 2026-27 Suns are being challenged to do it again. The oft-disrespected franchise finds itself in familiar territory, with national media expressing doubt around the sustainability of what’s being built, even when they have a clear vision in mind.

As the new season begins, the Suns will put their heads down, get back to work and trust their identity and culture. But how far will that get Phoenix this season? Let’s get into it…

Can The Phoenix Suns Exceed Expectations in 2026-27?

There are a several buzzwords in the Suns’ sphere, but any form of the word “aligned” may have been surpassed by both “continuity” and multiple forms of “ascend” ahead of the new season.

Those buzzwords are the keys to exceeding expectations once again.

As the offseason got underway, owner Mat Ishbia, general manager Brian Gregory and head coach Jordan Ott all communicated that continuity would be a core tenet of the franchise. They then practiced what they preached by re-signing Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin and Mark Williams in relatively short order.

New Chapter, Same Book

Of course, continuity with this franchise is embodied by Devin Booker, who enters Year 12 with the Suns.

It may be a new chapter, but it’s the same Book. He’s got the same attitude and smooth jumper… just a bit more facial hair and a new number.

With Williams on the mend from offseason shoulder surgery, 10 of the active players on opening night were a part of last year’s team. That is the continuity Phoenix plans to lean on to ascend in the Western Conference.

Booker is coming off the fifth All-Star campaign of his career and, after finishing in the league’s top 10 in points per game (26.1) and top 20 in assists per game (6.0), has indicated in many ways that he plans to be more assertive on the offensive end of the floor.

More than just his scoring, Booker’s value will also show through his ability to be the leader imparting wisdom on the team, including mate Jalen Green. After injuries limited his first season with the Suns, Green will take on more of an on-ball role in Year 2. The results in the preseason were mixed, but Green’s willingness to evolve speaks to the work culture Phoenix boasts about.

The Suns Way Impacts Newcomers

That same work culture that served as the launching pad for Dillon Brooks to have a career year in his ninth NBA season. It’s the Suns way.

With that in mind, Phoenix’s ceiling does rely heavily on newcomers Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard.

Bridges gets a change of scenery for his eighth NBA season, but his Michigan State ties admittedly make for plenty of familiarity.

Familiarity will be key as Bridges needs comfort to extend himself to do things he may not have been asked to do in his last stop — he’s looked upon to be the Suns’ answer at power forward while providing a level of playmaking and defense that he’s only truly shown in limited capacities.

For Kennard, it’s Year 10 on the court, but it’s also a reunion with two former Memphis Grizzlies teammates in Brooks and Goodwin. The masses know Kennard for his historically good 3-point shooting, but he’s an all-around basketball player who can unlock so much for Phoenix with his feel for the game and savvy playmaking.

The Suns’ ability exceed expectations doesn’t rest solely on their two newest veterans, but they are both ceiling raisers. Let Brooks’ career year serve as a reminder that sometimes all it takes is a new situation.

Who’s Up Next?

There’s one more buzzword to get to, and it’s actually two words: Internal development.

Phoenix’s ascension will be made possible by the group of young players brought in to contribute in the near future and, in a perfect world, take the reins of the franchise in the distant future.

All eyes are on Khaman Maluach, who, per Booker, has “all the intangibles of being a star.” It’s more than just Booker, as the Kennard and two-way guard Pat Spencer have spoken in serious absolutes about how impressive the 20-year-old is.

Can Maluach continue his rapid ascension toward his potential? Will he and Oso Ighodaro be enough to provide Phoenix with 48 minutes of solid center play on a nightly basis? Was the preseason leap shown from Ryan Dunn real?

Positive as the returns have been from that trio, there’s also some hopeful anticipation that Rasheer Fleming will soon turn a corner and be an impactful part of the rotation. And there’s also a belief that the sky is the limit for Mr. Arizona, Koa Peat, the 19-year-old who has a world of potential and is eager to realize it for his hometown team.

When laying out the formula and path toward success, it’s hard to see how this team isn’t better than last year’s — even if the Western Conference is stronger.

The ability to outwork their opponent remains the Suns’ best attribute, but they’ve also added more talent to a team that won 45 games just one season ago.

Phoenix Suns Win Projection 2026-27

Ahead of the 2026-27 NBA season, DraftKings Sportsbook gave the Suns an over/under win total of 39.5 games.

The line is set at a mark that is more than five wins fewer than what the team achieved in 2025-26. With that in mind, me and my PHNX Suns‘ co-host Stephen PridGeon-Garner both believe the team will take a step forward.

During our 2026-27 season preview show, I slated the Suns a 46-win team, which felt slightly ambitious until SPG’s proclamation that the Suns could win 52 games and finish as high as third in the Western Conference.

As for the playoffs…

Phoenix Suns NBA Playoff Probability 2026-27

Playoff likelihood can be calculated multiple ways, including the odds provided by our friends at DraftKings.

Entering the season, Phoenix’s odds to make the 2027 NBA Playoffs were -125 (implied probability of 54.5%). On a more analytical side of things, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gave the Suns a 53.1% chance to make the playoffs in 2027.

In short, both the books and the computers say Phoenix’s chances to make the playoffs are essentially a coin flip.

After needing a Play-In Tournament victory to capture the eighth seed in 2026, the Suns are eying a solidified spot in this year’s top six. They expect that of themselves, and I expect that of them, too.

Expectations sure are funny, aren’t they?