On Saturday night, nearly 20,000 fans gathered at Chase Field to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Arizona Diamondbacks World Series run. With the new norm of crowds below 10,000 amid a dreadful on-field product and the reawakened pandemic, it felt like a sellout.
Fans came decked out in purple and teal to be taken back to the most iconic moment in valley sports history. What the 2001 team gave them no one can ever take away. We all remember where we were that day.
But then again, wasn’t it just yesterday we celebrated the 10-year anniversary? I can already hear Jesse McGuire’s trumpet at the 30-year celebration ringing in my ear…
That’s not to say there haven’t been memorable Diamondbacks moments in the last 20 years.
As recently as 2017, Archie Bradley’s 8th inning two-run triple in the National League Wild Card game sent Chase Field into a thunderous eruption. But it’s hard to ignore the sour taste of getting swept by the Dodgers in the same building less than a week later.
Nonetheless, there is a chasmic drop-off between what was celebrated Saturday night and what is happening before our eyes right now.
This team is bad. Like really bad.
The D-backs are 45-95, and as of the time of this writing, have sole rights to the worst record in Major League Baseball.
Speaking of worst record, many fans have fully embraced tanking the season, particularly with possible transcendent talent like Elijah Green topping draft rankings for 2022. That may not be a bad idea.
But let’s not fool ourselves: not even a star outfielder would fix this team’s problems right now.
As a team, the 2021 Diamondbacks rank 29th in ERA (5.19), 29th in WHIP (1.44), 26th in OPS (.691) and 29th in home runs (124).
For those who are more analytically-inclined, the team’s 85 wRC+ and .301 wOBA rank 27th and 25th in the league, respectively. The D-backs offense is 28th in hard-hit rate (35.3%) and 29th in barrel rate (5.7%). Essentially, only the Pittsburgh Pirates are hitting the ball more softly.
Meanwhile, the D-backs are the only team in baseball that has received negative fWAR from their bullpen (–0.8).
What is perhaps even more alarming is that a historically prolific defensive team has dropped to 27th in the league in defensive runs saved with a staggering –39 mark for the season.
Frankly, there really isn’t any aspect of the 2021 team that has been good. Offense, defense, starting rotation, bullpen. All have been an unequivocal disaster.
There is an argument to be made that this disaster is largely attributable to a barrage of unprecedented injuries. That may be true, but the D-backs had very little reliable depth at any position entering the season. They paid dearly for it.
So now, to the positives. Wait, there are positives? Actually, there are quite a few for a team sitting 50 games under .500.
Ketel Marte, despite being plagued with injuries, has solidified himself as the star of the franchise. After taking an apparent step back last year, Marte is slashing .322/.376/.545 in over 1,100 plate appearances since the beginning of 2019. This was never a fluke. Marte is really freaking good.
He is also just 27 years old, and he happens to be on an incredibly team-friendly contract that runs through 2024. Marte is not just the most valuable asset on the Diamondbacks. He’s one of the best young assets in baseball. If the D-backs don’t push back into contention soon, Marte will be a no-brainer trade candidate.
Outfielder Pavin Smith and Daulton “Insert Position Here” Varsho have also shown promise in their sophomore seasons. Smith has been a near league average hitter, while flashing an advanced understanding of the strike zone. It’s hard to say how much ceiling is left for him, but at the very least, he is already a useful MLB player from what appears to be a very barren 2017 draft class.
Varsho, who was drafted 61 picks after Smith, has turned things around after a sluggish start to the year. What appears to be a fairly average overall batting line is masked by the fact that Varsho is hitting .263/.353/.526 in 157 plate appearances since July 1. For a 25-year-old tasked with a nearly impossible defensive workload, he is probably the most promising young player on the roster.
The most consistent Diamondback in 2021 has been Josh Rojas. In addition to staying healthy for most of the year – which feels like an accomplishment in itself with what has transpired this season – Rojas has been flirting with an .800 OPS for several months. His .346 BABIP suggests he may not maintain his current production long-term, but legit positional flexibility and a league average bat could see Rojas to a long MLB career.
There have been other positives for the 2021 Diamondbacks too. Carson Kelly still looks like the catcher of the future, and Madison Bumgarner has a 3.39 ERA since returning from the injured list in mid-July. Zac Gallen has also looked better recently after an injury scare earlier in the season.
So, where do the D-backs stand now?
While they are likely to get a few wins back from better injury luck and improved performance from younger players, the Padres, Dodgers and Giants are three of the four best teams in the National League. Clearly, now is not the time for the D-backs to push their chips in.
That said, with the likes of Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and a plethora of young starting pitchers on the horizon, it’s not crazy to think the D-backs could work their way back into contention in the next 2-3 years.
They have many important decisions to make between now and then, not the least of which is whether to renew Manager Torey Lovullo’s contract at the end of the season.
After that, General Manager Mike Hazen and company face the monumental task of righting a ship that is already sinking.
Fresh off the 20th anniversary celebration of the franchise’s signature moment, it’s hard to remember a lower point for the Diamondbacks.
