After 99 days of combing through backhanded press releases, watching MLB executives walk across hotel parking lots and attempting to ward off the inevitable withdrawals that stemmed from the second-longest work stoppage in MLB history, baseball is officially back.
Beginning with their opener Thursday afternoon against the Colorado Rockies, the Diamondbacks will play 20 spring training games before the regular season begins on April 7. Here are seven storylines to watch as the Cactus League commences.
1. Alek Thomas
After destroying the minors to the tune of a combined .313/.394/.559 batting line last year between Double-A and Triple-A, Alek Thomas will become arguably the most well-regarded Diamondbacks position player prospect to appear in MLB spring training games since Justin Upton.
At this point, it’s fair to wonder if the 21-year-old has anything else to learn in the minors. Particularly with service time manipulation deterrents built into the new CBA, Thomas has a real chance to crack the Opening Day roster.
Whether or not he does depends on how he performs in the Cactus League. Even if the team sends him to Reno (Triple-A) to start the season, expect the stint to be short-lived.
No matter what, if you’re looking for a reason to go catch a Cactus League game, look no further than Thomas, who figures to be a key contributor for years to come.
2. Geraldo Perdomo
Speaking of budding stars, 22-year-old shortstop Geraldo Perdomo impressed in his first taste of the majors last year, slashing .258/.378/.419 and walking as much as he struck out in 11 games.
It’s not going to be easy to pry away playing time from long-time shortstop Nick Ahmed, who is still one of the best defenders in the game. On the flip-side, Ahmed’s .221/.280/.339 batting line last year was his worst since 2016, and Perdomo’s a good enough defender that being just league-average offensively likely makes him the more valuable overall player.
Perdomo’s bat is well-regarded too, but the switch hitter still needs to prove he can be consistent. His offense in the minors last year was very up-and-down — or rather, down-and-up.
From May 4 to July 7 with Double-A Amarillo, Perdomo slashed .151/.305/.204 in 189 plate appearances. After returning to the Arizona complex to rework his swing, Perdomo returned on Aug. 5. In 169 plate appearances with Amarillo and Reno the rest of the way, he slashed .329/.414/.521 with 14 extra-base hits.
It’s also worth noting that Perdomo has been much more effective facing righties so far in the minors, which is also something to look for this spring. Given that Ahmed has always hit well against lefties, a platoon might make sense.
In a perfect world, Ahmed recovers from his down-year in 2021 and Perdomo proves he’s consistent enough offensively to be a big-league regular. The former would help the Diamondbacks unload a currently unfavorable contract. The latter could become one of the better shortstops in franchise history.
3. Cooper Hummel
Perhaps 27-year-old Cooper Hummel doesn’t offer the same future value as Thomas and Perdomo, but Hummel is a better prospect than his age indicates.
The D-backs acquired the Portland native from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Eduardo Escobar trade. He played every position last year except center field, shortstop and second base. Yes, even catcher — his primary position when the Brewers drafted him in 2016.
In 2021, Hummel slashed an impressive .311/.432/.546 with 12 homers, 52 RBI and more walks than strikeouts in 92 Triple-A games. It was good enough for FanGraphs writer Ben Clemens to include him on a list of intriguing mid-tier prospects.
Don’t expect Hummel to replicate his Triple-A numbers in the big leagues, but with seemingly nothing left to prove in Reno, he has a real chance to make the Opening Day roster.
The fact that he plays catcher helps a lot. Including him on the Opening Day roster alongside Daulton Varsho should keep the team from needing a designated backup catcher behind Carson Kelly.
4. The fifth starter battle
Barring injury, it’s probably safe to pencil in Zac Gallen, Madison Bumgarner, Merrill Kelly and Luke Weaver as the front four members of the starting rotation. The fifth rotation spot is up for grabs.
Recent minor league signee Dan Straily has thrown almost 400 innings over the last two seasons in the KBO with solid numbers across the board. Whether he opens the season in the rotation or not, he’s probably going to pitch in the majors at some point. With eight seasons of major-league experience already under his belt, he’s arguably the favorite.
Then again, Tyler Gilbert went 2-1 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a no-hitter in six starts last year. The fact that he only struck out 20 hitters in 36.1 innings suggests batted ball luck may have played a role.
Caleb Smith had been a starter almost his entire career when the D-backs acquired him in 2020, and he still made 13 starts last year, posting a 6.95 ERA with 40 walks in 57.1 innings. He was vocal last year about wanting to stay in the rotation, but he was so good in the bullpen that it’s going to be hard for the team to justify that move. Moreover, Joe Mantiply is the only other left-handed reliever expected to break the Opening Day roster.
Don’t forget about Corbin Martin, who was arguably the team’s biggest get in the Zack Greinke trade back in 2019. Martin is 26, but injuries have wrecked his timeline. He wasn’t great in the minors or majors last year, but his prospect pedigree could help escalate his rank quickly. Reuniting with former pitching coach Brent Strom doesn’t hurt either.
Other depth options such as Humberto Castellanos will also get a look during the Cactus League.
5. Madison Bumgarner
Anyone remember the Zack Greinke Spring Training Velo Watch? The Diamondbacks have another arm with 2,000-plus innings in town now, and unfortunately, it’s no secret velocity is one of the first things to go as pitchers age.
The good news is that Bumgarner — much like Greinke — doesn’t rely on fastball velocity to get outs. He has a deceptive delivery and the high spin rate on his heater helps it play up.
All that is to say, look for more than velocity readings this spring. That’s likely to tick up in the next few months anyway.
The story of Bumgarner’s spring is really his changeup, a pitch that has come and gone throughout his career. He told reporters on Monday that it felt as good as ever earlier this winter, and we’ll probably see a lot of it in the Cactus League.
6. Musical chairs on defense
Defensive flexibility is a strength for the Diamondbacks, but the team probably took that too far last year when it played 28 position players at a total of 65 positions. Manager Torey Lovullo has told reporters already that he plans to give players more positional regularity in 2022.
Figuring out who fits where is unclear, though. Ketel Marte has predominantly played center field the last several years, but persistent injury problems suggest a move back to second base. Varsho showed promise as a center fielder, but playing him there every day is a lot to ask of a prospect who came up as a catcher.
Meanwhile, if Marte plays second, where does Josh Rojas fit? We know he can play corner outfield and third base, but his bat is non-ideal for each. There are really no clear options, but Rojas was arguably the team’s most consistent position player last year, and he’s shown the ability to bounce around defensively if necessary.
The team’s uncertainty at third base is well-documented, with Rojas, Josh VanMeter and Drew Ellis figuring to get looks but no clear frontrunner. It’s still possible the team will add a third baseman via trade or free agency before the Cactus League ends.
Pavin Smith can play corner outfield or first base, but it’s hard to say where his ideal fit is, particularly since the team brought back first baseman Christian Walker.
The addition of the designated hitter will certainly help Lovullo and his staff sort through these questions, but the team has a lot of decisions to make.
7. Bullpen roles
We can safely pencil in the 2021 MLB saves leader (Mark Melancon) as the team’s closer on Opening Day. Ian Kennedy all but confirmed this to reporters on Wednesday, when he discussed his willingness to take on a setup role.
After Melancon and Kennedy, it seems likely that lefties Smith and Mantiply will make the team. Taylor Widener has a good shot, too, as do Noe Ramirez and J.B. Wendelken. That’s seven names so far, but the team will need one more, not counting the fact that MLB and the MLBPA may expand roster sizes at the beginning of the year to help teams cope with the shortened spring training.
Other possibilities include recently well-regarded prospects such as J.B. Bukauskas and Luis Frias, as well as other depth options such as Sean Poppen and Humberto Meija.
Lovullo and his staff have a lot of decisions to make over the next several weeks, and fewer games than usual for evaluation. That’s going to be tough.
Less Cactus League baseball isn’t good for fans, the state of Arizona or anyone for that matter. But baseball is back. Less than 10 days ago, it looked like it could be months before we would be able to say that.
