Full Count: On the evolution of leadoff hitters and how Torey Lovullo uses them

For nearly a century, the vast majority of leadoff hitters in Major League Baseball were of the same ilk. They were fast. They put the ball in play. They got on base. And they were, with few exceptions, not the best overall hitters on their team.

Think Ichiro Suzuki. Lou Brock. Kenny Lofton. Jose Reyes. Juan Pierre.

They had high batting averages and good on-base percentages, and they stole a bunch of bases.

The Diamondbacks have had plenty of their own over the years. Tony Womack, Jean Segura, Craig Counsell and Chris Young come to mind.

But in 2023 — and especially over the past 5-10 years — the league-wide perception of what makes a great leadoff hitter has evolved. Just ask the single-season American League home run record-holder, Aaron Judge, who started 34 games in the leadoff spot last year for the New York Yankees.

The Yankees aren’t the only team using their best overall hitter at the top. Julio Rodriguez, for example, leads off for the Seattle Mariners. Trea Turner leads off for the Philadelphia Phillies.

There are a variety of other philosophies out there, though. Some teams still use contact-oriented hitters similar to what leadoff hitters have looked like in years past. The Cleveland Guardians have Steven Kwan in the leadoff spot. The Chicago White Sox have Tim Anderson. The Miami Marlins have Luis Arreaz. These guys make tons of contact, but don’t have much pop.

Other teams strike a balance, using hitters who can both hit for power and get on base a lot, but are not necessarily the best hitters on their teams. George Springer of the Toronto Blue Jays, Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves and Brandon Nimmo of the New York Mets come to mind.

While there are a variety of approaches out there, it is abundantly clear that speed is no longer the primary factor as it once was.

“I think that’s 1985 baseball,” Diamondbacks manager Lovullo said, citing Whitey Herzog’s St. Louis Cardinals. “I respect that. It was a great time for that type of baseball.

“I want really good at-bats. I want pitchers to work to get through lineups, and … I’m not looking for the first batter to steal second, get bunted over to third and sacrifice fly score a run.

“I’m looking for guys to impact the baseball and have the pitcher work as hard as possible. So, speed is not a factor for me at the top of the lineup.”

Lovullo said that he has evolved “a little bit” in this regard over the years. Back in 2019, his primary leadoff hitter was Jarrod Dyson, who went 46-for-53 in stolen bases from 2018-19 despite hitting just .216/.302/.299 with a 59 OPS+. Lovullo also used Tim Locastro, another speed-first outfielder, in the leadoff role in a total of 49 games from 2019-21.

For your amusement, here is every Diamondbacks hitter who has led off 20 percent or more of the team’s games in any given year since Lovullo took over.

Year	Player	GS (PA)	BA	OBP	SLG	SB	CS
2017	Grégor Blanco	38 (180)	.268	.358	.382	14	1
	A.J. Pollock	42 (203)	.296	.345	.492	14	2
	David Peralta	54 (241)	.267	.336	.419	2	3
2018	Jon Jay	61 (295)	.243	.310	.333	1	1
	David Peralta	60 (267)	.276	.337	.410	2	0
2019	Jarrod Dyson	80 (376)	.235	.314	.333	27	1
2020	Tim Locastro	13 (63)	.302	.403	.472	2	0
	Ketel Marte	16 (66)	.302	.318	.403	0	0
	Kole Calhoun	17 (77)	.206	.351	.492	0	0
2021	Josh Rojas	71 (329)	.257	.339	.406	5	4
2022	Daulton Varsho	62 (275)	.221	.285	.390	9	4
	Josh Rojas	45 (207)	.269	.332	.387	10	2

In total, Lovullo has started 33 different hitters in the leadoff spot in his six-plus years as manager of the Diamondbacks, most of whom have started too few games to show up in the table above. Andrew Young, Stone Garrett, Rey Fuentes, Ildemaro Vargas, Chris Hermann, Jeremy Hazelbaker and Abraham Almonte have all started games in the leadoff spot in Lovullo’s tenure.

On the whole, Lovullo’s top five at-bat-getters in the leadoff spot since 2017 are, in order, Josh Rojas, David Peralta, Dyson, Daulton Varsho and Jon Jay.

What does that group have in common? Not a whole lot, frankly.

Dyson was a big-time base stealer. Rojas and Varsho steal fairly often. Peralta and Jay rarely stole during their time in Arizona.

Varsho and Rojas see an above-average number of pitches per plate appearance. The others did not.

Varsho has above-average power. The others hover around league average or, in Dyson and Jay’s cases, significantly below.

There are no clear patterns in Lovullo’s usage of the leadoff spot, other than that he has never used his best overall hitter there. That is not necessarily surprising. As discussed earlier, there aren’t many patterns with the rest of the league, either. The leadoff hitter mold that stood for so long has been broken, and teams have since taken a wide variety of approaches.

The other more obvious factor here is that Lovullo has effectively no control over who is on his roster. He has to work with what he’s given. We only know what he’s done with the cards he’s been dealt.

Does the leadoff spot even matter?

Functionally, there is a case to be made that the question of who bats leadoff is overplayed. The only obvious difference between the leadoff spot and the other spots in the lineup is that leadoff hitters accumulate slightly more plate appearances than other hitters over the course of a season.

Some hitters view it no differently than any other spot in the lineup.

“It’s the same,” said D-backs outfielder Kyle Lewis, who started in the leadoff spot for the first time in his major-league career on Opening Day last week in Los Angeles. “I just try to hit.

“Once the game starts, the lineup just rolls over. You just hit first, but the lineup rolls over throughout the game. So, in the second inning, somebody else is hitting leadoff.”

Rojas, who has hit leadoff every time the D-backs have faced a righty this season, echoed the sentiment.

“I think the most important thing about the leadoff spot is just that first at-bat of the game,” he said. “That’s really your main role. And then, after that, you’re just trying to fit in whatever the situation calls for.

“If I’m leading off an inning and the pitcher had a long inning and I’m hitting sixth in the order, I’m still gonna approach that like if I was hitting leadoff. Or, if I’m hitting leadoff and it’s runner on first with two outs, I’m going to try to hit an extra-base hit, So, it doesn’t really matter where I’m at in the lineup. It’s all about just reading [the situation].”

For Rojas, the fact that the leadoff spot eventually blends in with the others does not cheapen the honor of being there in the first place.

It’s not just about taking the first at-bat in the game. It’s also about setting the table for his team’s best hitters.

“I love it,” he said. “I feel like it’s a chance to set the tone of the game. Obviously there’s there’s good sides and bad sides to that.

“It’s always tough when you start off the game with the weak out or a strikeout or something like that, but I love that responsibility that comes with that role. I also feel like it’s a chance to set up the lineup for the power guys behind you. Usually those two-three-four-five guys are really good hitters.

“Whether the situation calls for seeing some pitches, getting the pitch count up or getting on base for those guys behind you … I like that part of that role is just thinking about all the different possibilities and what my role is each and every time I step up to the plate.”

Rojas figures to get the majority of the reps in the leadoff spot in the immediate future. As many have suspected, however, 22-year-old phenom Corbin Carroll could be next in line.

“Everybody wants to know when that’s gonna happen,” Lovullo said. “It could, but … I don’t want to rush into that decision.

“If it’s supposed to happen, it’ll happen.”

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Top photo: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports