Arizona Coyotes 2023-24 midseason report: Perspective reveals clear progress

It’s important to avoid recency bias when judging the Coyotes at the midpoint of the 2023-24 season. Before a 6-0 throttling of the Wild on Saturday in St. Paul, Minnesota, Arizona had dropped five of its past six games, including a 1-4 homestand on which it was outscored 21-4 in the four losses. That sort of skid is a concern for the second half of the season if the Coyotes want to make a run for the postseason — especially with the Edmonton Oilers and the Seattle Kraken both riding franchise-record setting winning streaks.

But taking a step back offers perspective — both short-term and long-term. The Coyotes have had wild swings before this most recent one. They had a five-game winning streak in late November and early December that preceded a four-game losing streak — and that losing streak preceded a four-game winning streak. Again, consistency is a concern, but the Coyotes hit the 41-game mark of the season at 44 points, three points off the second Western Conference wild card pace being set by two teams that will almost certainly cool off at some point soon.

“I really am proud of the guys for how hard they have battled and how they have come together as a group,” GM Bill Armstrong said. “I’m happy where we’re at right now. We’re right in the hunt.”

That’s exactly where Armstrong hoped they would be when he addressed reporters on media day in September — before the Coyotes embarked on this travel-packed season with a trip to Melbourne, Australia for the NHL Global Series.

“Do I think we’re a playoff team?” he said then. “No, but I do think we’re a competitive team that can push to play meaningful games.”

Armstrong has never hidden the fact that rebuilds are often long and painful unless you have luck in the draft lottery such as the Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks enjoyed. Even so, a season-by-season comparison shows that Arizona has steadily improved since it began this rebuild in earnest before the 2021-22 season. Here’s a look at the Coyotes midseason records each of the three seasons since they began the rebuild.

2021-22: 10-27-4, 24 points
2022-23: 13-23-5, 31 points
2023-24: 21-18-2, 44 points

Another area in which Armstrong wanted to see improvement was road play. Arizona is 8-9-2 on the road this season. That’s one more win than the Coyotes managed on the road in the entire 2022-23 season.

There is a lot of hockey left to be played. As most insiders will tell you, the games grow more and more difficult as the season ramps up and the playoffs come within view. We’ll find out over the next three months if the Coyotes have the right stuff, but the preseason goal is still within sight.

Let’s examine the Coyotes at the midpoint of the 2023-24 season.

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Coyotes Coaching

The first two seasons of André Tourigny’s tenure with the Coyotes felt like the honeymoon phase. While management wanted to see progress, there were virtually no expectations for success in terms of wins and losses. With a stripped down roster, the focus was on acquiring as many quality draft assets as possible while Tourigny established his culture, systems and the way he wanted his team to play.

That picture has changed, if only incrementally. The Coyotes are in a playoff race now so some of Tourigny’s decisions have come under scrutiny by media and a fan base starved for success. Why did Matt Dumba remain in the lineup when it was clear for everyone to see that his mental and tactical lapses were hurting the team? Why did Tourigny insist on having Liam O’Brien in the lineup every night over more skilled options? Why did he so often revert to the 11 forward-seven defensemen lineup? Why was his team so ill-prepared to play in four of the five games on the most recent homestand?

Tourigny addressed all of this and more in a lengthy interview just before the team headed to Minnesota.

Tourigny understands all that comes with entering the next stage of the rebuild. He understands that his own job will become more difficult as expectations around the team increase. He knows that his lineup and in-game decisions will be scrutinized after every loss. He even admits that some of it will be warranted because “I’m not perfect.”

What is undeniable to this stage of his tenure is that Tourigny connects with his players on a level rarely seen in the coaching ranks. He has genuine relationships with his players and they genuinely seem to like him. Although he will turn 50 in May, Tourigny embodies the modern approach to coaching where player-coach relationships assume more of a partnership than a boss-employee dynamic. Tourigny’s 20 years of coaching experience in the CHL ranks helped refine that approach, but much of it flows from a more internal well: it’s just who he is.

Will that be enough to push the Coyotes to the next level when more and more of the young talent arrives? Only time will tell, but the coach is largely focused on the present.

“I think Bear has done a great job of getting this team bonded with a lot of new faces; getting them all to mesh and play well together,” Armstrong said. “But I still think there’s some more growth ahead of us.”

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goaltending

After Connor Ingram’s strong second half of the 2022-23 season — his first genuine NHL opportunity — many analysts wondered if he was ready to challenge Karel Vejmelka for the starting job. Through 41 games, it’s fair to say that he has not only pulled even with Vejmelka; he has surpassed him.

Following his league-leading fifth shutout of the season on Saturday in St. Paul, Ingram is third in the NHL in save percentage (.919) among goalies who have played at least half their team’s games. He is seventh in goals against average (2.51). As for advanced stats, he leads the NHL in high-danger save percentage (.887) per naturalstatrick.com, and he is among the top five in every model’s measure of goals saved above expected.

It is almost criminal that fan voting selected Colorado goaltender Alexandar Georgiev to represent the Central Division at the NHL All-Star Game, but the week off could do Ingram some good as he prepares for the home stretch of the season. Consistency is the measure of a great goaltender, but if you look at Ingram’s performance since January 2023, he has established himself as an elite NHL goaltender.

As for Vejmelka, he has had an uneven season. Over the first 20 games, Tourigny rotated Vejmelka and Ingram on a game-by-game basis. For a time, it was warranted. Then Vejmelka began to struggle and Ingram took over, leading the Coyotes during their hottest stretch of the season.

Vejmelka had his own, albeit shorter hot streak, but he has lost his past three starts in decisive fashion and his overall numbers do not compare favorably to Ingram’s. His .899 save percentage ranks 27th in the NHL among qualifying goalies, his goals against average (3.32) ranks 33rd. He has 2.12 goals saved above expected and a high-danger save percentage of .784.

Tourigny has fought the notion that one goaltender has separated himself from the other, noting correctly that he will need both players to play significant minutes throughout the season, but as the importance of games ramps up, Vejmelka has work to do to maintain a significant place in the Coyotes net.

Even so, it’s important to view the Coyotes goaltending tandem in context. Multiple playoff teams — even Cup contenders — are struggling to find one consistent goalie.

“We’ve been pretty fortunate to find two goaltenders in this league who have been very good,” Armstrong said. “And they’re still young (Ingram is 26; Vejmelka is 27), so they’ve still got a ways to develop before they really peak and become the best goaltender they can be at the NHL level.”

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Defense

When the Coyotes added Sean Durzi via trade and Matt Dumba, Travis Dermott and Troy Stecher via free agency this summer, it looked as if they had simultaneously solidified their top two defensive pairs with JJ Moser and Juuso Välimäki already in the fold, while adding necessary depth to complement Josh Brown.

It hasn’t quite worked out that way. Moser has been as steady and consistent as ever, and Stecher has flown under the radar as an effective and smart playmaker who is fourth among Arizona’s blue liners in average ice time per game.

Dumba had a short stretch of strong play in December and a promising game against his old team on Saturday. He has also brought a sorely needed physical presence to the back end, but he has struggled to fit with the Coyotes’ system and personnel. Through 41 games, the elements that stand out most to fans are his turnovers and mental lapses when defending, which have contributed to him having the second lowest on-ice, score-adjusted, expected-goal percentage (38.9); ahead of only Brown.

Brown played his first game in a month on Saturday and logged just 5:58 of ice time. Dermott is a minus-10; second worst among D-men on the team. Välimäki has been a recent and frequent healthy scratch in the stretch following his scary mouth injury. Even Durzi had a rough stretch before regaining his sea legs this month. He has six goals, 23 points (tied for 28th among NHL defenseman) and he has filled the much-needed role of power-play quarterback, but there is still growth ahead in his first season as a prime-minutes defenseman.

The addition of Michael Kesselring has added some more size and underrated puck-moving ability, but it’s clear that the Coyotes still lack the top-end guys that most playoff teams feature.

Tourigny’s man-to-man defensive system is a challenge because defensemen are often chasing in the D-zone, expending more energy and sometimes leaving forwards to defend the net front. It’s debatable whether the Coyotes have the personnel to run this system, but the greater issue is still the need for more talent, thus the recent trade flirtation with Calgary for Noah Hanifin.

Every Coyotes fan can recite the names of the players in the pipeline who might change that picture someday soon. Dmitri Simashev, Maveric Lamoureux, Artem Duda, Maksymilian Szuber, Jérémy Langlois, Justin Kipkie, Victor Söderström and Vladislav Kolyachonok have all shown varying degrees of progress, but none of those names appears ready to make a significant impact on the Coyotes next season.

That raises another question: Which of the Coyotes’ current defensemen will be back next season? All eight of the defenseman on the current roster are playing on expiring contracts. Dumba, Brown, Stecher and Dermott will all be unrestricted free agents this summer. Moser, Durzi, Välimäki and Kesselring will all be restricted free agents, as will Kolyachonok and Söderström. The bet here is that the RFAs will be back because they are cost-controlled and this is a cost-conscious franchise that isn’t spending anything close to the cap in real dollars.

As for who fills in around them, that will depend on the progress of the prospects, and the costs of the UFAs.

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Forwards

Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz attract more national attention, but ask Tourigny and he will tell that his most effective line for most of the season was Nick Bjugstad centering Lawson Crouse and Matias Maccelli.

That line was recently broken up, but Crouse is still tied with Keller for the team lead in goals with 17 (a 34-goal pace) and Maccelli leads the team in assists with 22. Sixteen of those are primary assists which puts him among the NHL’s top 25 players in that category.

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Toss in Bjugstad, who had a hat trick on Saturday and plays a responsible 200-foot game every night, and you understand why Tourigny heaps such praise on this complete unit.

Keller is still producing (team-high 38 points), but he and Schmaltz (27 points) are a combined minus-27 and teams have adapted to defending their high cycle. It’s clear that they miss playing with center Barrett Hayton, who created a lot of space for them down low, retrieved pucks, created a net-front presence and was able to make plays in tight spaces. Hayton (hand injury) is projected to return to the lineup after the All-Star break.

Jack McBain continues to suggest that he is more than a fourth-line center. With Hayton out, he is getting the chance to prove it by playing between Keller and Schmaltz. Michael Carcone cooled after a torrid start (14 goals) and found himself a healthy scratch on Saturday after going scoreless in 13 straight games.

While fans often wonder why Tourigny sticks with Liam O’Brien, the coach has both a long history with his enforcer, and a trust in structure through all three zones, and his willingness to defend his teammates.

As for much-hyped rookie Logan Cooley (three goals, 20 points), he’s a work in progress. You can make the argument that Cooley belonged in the AHL this season where he might have gained confidence and played in a lot of situations while developing his body. That’s not going to happen so Cooley will have to figure out how to use his considerable offensive tools in a league that offers much tighter time and space windows.

On the plus side, after some costly mistakes earlier in the season, Cooley has turned into a responsible player. The opportunity to play alongside recent call-up Dylan Guenther is also intriguing because the pair’s skill sets seem to mesh so well.

As for Alex Kerfoot and Jason Zucker, we’ll discuss them in the free-agent section below, while also revisiting Bjugstad.

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Special teams

Through 41 games, the Coyotes power-play unit ranks 10th in the NHL at a 24-percent conversion rate. Arizona’s power play has finished among the league’s top 10 just three times in its 26-season history in the Valley. The inaugural Coyotes (1996-97) finished fourth, the 2013-14 Coyotes also finished fourth and the 2014-15 Coyotes finished seventh.

Credit new assistant coach Blaine Forsythe with introducing some of the principles that worked when he coached the Washington Capitals’ elite unit, but also credit the addition of Durzi, who has provided the kind of QB play at the top that the Coyotes needed. Schmaltz leads the team with seven power-play goals while Keller leads the team in power play points (18). Durzi and Cooley each has 10 power-play points.

The penalty killing unit struggled early in the season and still ranks 18th in the NHL at 78.9 percent, but under assistant coach John Madden it has shown some progress.

Kerfoot leads all Coyotes in average ice time on the PK at 2:40 per game, but Arizona still lacks that shot-blocking, net-front defenseman who can lock down the lower half, a la Niklas Hjalmarsson. Dumba is the most likely candidate to fill that role over the second half of the season.

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Free-agent signings

The Coyotes added six players in the unrestricted free-agent market this summer: forwards Jason Zucker, Alex Kerfoot, Nick Bjugstad and defensemen Matt Dumba, Troy Stecher and Travis Dermott. They have been a mixed bag.

It’s important to note right off the bat that these are quality veterans. Armstrong has shown a consistent ability throughout his tenure to add character guys to the dressing room. All six of these players continue that trend.

We discussed Dumba’s on-ice struggles above, and while Dermott has provided some needed depth, minutes and introspection to a slowly progressing league, he has struggled at times in the defensive zone and with decision making.

Zucker (six goals, 14 points) may have been the most heralded of the signings but he has yet to make his full mark on this team. After returning from a three-game suspension for hitting Florida’s Nick Cousins from behind, he was particularly hard on himself after his turnover-plagued performance against the Calgary Flames.

On the flip side, Kerfoot and Bjugstad are running neck and neck for the best UFA signings of the summer. Kerfoot (six goals, 25 points) has embraced his jack-of-all trades role, and Bjugstad (nine goals, 26 points) is on pace to set career highs in assists and points while also manning a critical shutdown role of opposing elite centers.

The guy who deserves more recognition than he is getting is Stecher. He is averaging 18:53 of ice time (fourth among Coyotes defensemen) and there’s a reason. His plus-8 rating is tied for the team lead because he plays a sound game.

What seldom gets noticed about Stecher is all of the smart, little plays he makes within a game. He uses his skating and stick skills as assets but when pressed, and despite his small frame, he is not afraid to get in and battle. It’s hard to predict the market, but Stecher would be a good veteran to keep around.

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Key deadlines

The All-Star break begins in two weeks. Arizona has seven more games before that break. All of them are against teams above the .500 mark and five of those teams are in playoff position. We’ll have a clearer picture of the Coyotes’ playoff chances at that point.

The next meaningful deadline after that is the March 8 trade deadline, at which point the Coyotes will have played 63 games. When asked again what his approach would be at that deadline, here’s what Armstrong said.

“We haven’t changed our approach all year long,” he said. “We have a tremendously tough schedule in the months of January and February so I do believe it’ll work itself out before we get there.

“I like our team. Generally, I don’t want to break them apart, but there’s some transparency with the group that if we’re not going the right way, then management has to do what they have to do. Right now, they’ve shown they’re going the right way.”

Top photo of Arizona Coyotes via Getty Images

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