Breaking down the myth of the Suns' 4th quarter woes -- and where they can actually improve

Looking at the numbers, the Phoenix Suns are undoubtedly the NBA’s worst fourth-quarter team this season. In fact, they’re one of the worst fourth-quarter teams in NBA history.

It’s not a label anyone expected for a team with a Big 3 of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal — three clutch performers known for hitting big-time shots.

This has been a glaring issue since the first month of the season, but now, 77 games in, the Suns’ lowly rank in pretty much every fourth-quarter stat still comes as a shock:

• 30th in point differential (-3.0)
• 30th in scoring (24.9 PPG)
• 27th in field-goal percentage (44.7%)
• 24th in 3-point percentage (33.4%)
• 29th in rebounds (9.9 RPG)
• 25th in assists (5.4 APG)
• 28th in turnovers (3.9 TOs)
• 28th in steals (1.5 SPG)
• 30th in offensive rating (103.9)
• 26th in defensive rating (118.0)
• 30th in Net Rating (-14.1)

Not to bombard poor Suns fans with a barrage of depressing statistics, but we need to be thorough in order to properly convey how bad the numbers say they are.

Phoenix’s fourth-quarter point differential is nearly three times worse than the next-closest team, the Miami Heat, (-1.3). The Suns’ fourth-quarter Net Rating is twice as bad as the next-closest team (Miami again at -6.0), and there are only four teams in NBA history with a worse fourth-quarter Net Rating since the league started tracking this data back in 1996:

• 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs (-15.3)
• 2021-22 Portland Trail Blazers (-15.5)
• 1998-99 Chicago Bulls (-14.4)
• 1998-99 Vancouver Grizzlies (-14.2)

So basically, the only teams with a worse fourth-quarter Net Rating over the last 28 years are a Spurs team that had the NBA’s second-worst record while tanking for Victor Wembanyama; a tanking Blazers squad that only got 29 games out of Damian Lillard; a Bulls team that plummeted from NBA champs to dead-last in the East as soon as Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen left; and an expansion team in its fourth year of existence that had the NBA’s worst record.

Not exactly stellar company!

But where most people would simply look at those disgusting numbers, wince, and turn away, yours truly is not most people. As if combing through every Suns turnover this season wasn’t enough, this time around, we felt compelled to pour through the numbers, film and play-by-play data for all 77 fourth quarters this team has played to identify the root of their baffling late-game woes.

No one will mistake Phoenix for some fourth-quarter juggernaut, but based on what we found, they’re also nowhere near as bad as their reputation would lead people to believe.

Why the Suns aren’t as bad in 4th quarters as you’d think

Looking at the Suns’ atrocious fourth-quarter ranks, one would think they were coughing up leads left and right. But as coach Frank Vogel pointed out, not all fourth quarters are created equal.

“It’s all different,” Vogel said. “There’s all different scenarios — sometimes we’re down, sometimes we’re up, sometimes we’re even and just have a bad quarter.”

It sounds simplistic, but going through the raw data, he’s right.

Of the 77 games Phoenix has played this season, they’ve been outscored in the fourth quarter 46 times. They’ve only won the fourth quarter 24 times and tied their opponent in the final frame seven times. That means the Suns have lost the fourth quarter nearly 60 percent of the time!

However, of the 46 fourth quarters they’ve lost, they’ve still managed to win the game a whopping 25 times. Three of those 25 came in close games where they lost the fourth quarter but still pulled out the win. As for the other 22? The Suns held a significant lead through three quarters and were able to ride it out to victory despite losing the fourth.

That doesn’t sound super impressive…until one realizes that in 21 of the 25 instances where they lost the fourth but won the game, the Suns led by double-digits entering the final frame. And of those 21 games, they led by 15+ points 17 times, and 20+ points 13 times.

What this means is that in nearly half of the 46 fourth quarters Phoenix has lost this season, they were up comfortably heading into the final 12 minutes. And in the vast majority of those games, they led by 15-20 points, or at least double-digits, making many of those fourth quarters extended garbage time where the opponent’s second or third string simply outplayed the Suns’ backups.

Take Friday’s win over the Minnesota Timberwolves as the latest example. The Suns led by 16 through three quarters and actually extended their lead to 22 with four minutes to go. Vogel emptied the bench with the game in hand, and the Wolves outscored Phoenix’s third string 15-3 to close the game. The final result? A 10-point win for the Suns, but not before Minnesota won the fourth quarter 26-20…further damaging Phoenix ugly fourth-quarter Net Rating in the process.

“Obviously how we start the games can dictate how you finish the games, and I think we’ve taken every possession seriously from the first to the last, and that’s making our fourth quarters better,” Kevin Durant said. “I mean, when you up 20 points going into the fourth, but late in the fourth, teams might close the lead up, and like tonight in garbage time, the stats could look like we didn’t play well in the fourth.”

Dividing up the Suns’ 46 lost fourth quarters into subcategories, 22 of them came in “garbage time” where the Suns held a sturdy lead through three quarters and ultimately won the game; three came in close contests where Phoenix pulled out the win despite losing the fourth; three came in blowout losses where losing the fourth quarter was irrelevant; eight came in winnable games where the Suns trailed by a manageable amount entering the final frame; and 10 came in games where Phoenix held a lead through three quarters but choked it away with an appalling final 12 minutes.

It’s important to differentiate, because as much as the numbers and the Suns’ reputation would lead you to believe this team is some fourth-quarter catastrophe waiting to happen, the truth is they’ve only coughed up a lead with bad fourth quarters 10 times.

Let’s not minimize anything; one-third of the Suns’ losses coming in games where they led heading into the fourth quarter — and then proceeded to get dominated in that final 12 minutes — is a lot!

Looking at those 10 games specifically, it’s demoralizing to see how much Phoenix led by…and then how badly they got beat in the fourth. “Collapse” is an appropriate word for some of these meltdowns, especially when one realizes the Suns shot a combined 32 percent while averaging 4.5 turnovers per game in these contests:

• Los Angeles Lakers (Oct. 26): Led by 12, outscored 28-11 in 4th, lost by 5
• San Antonio Spurs (Oct. 31): Led by 13, outscored 33-19 in 4th, lost by 1
• Los Angeles Lakers (Nov. 10): Led by 7, outscored 33-23 in 4th, lost by 3
• OKC Thunder (Nov. 12): Led by 6, outscored 31-13 in 4th, lost by 12
• Brooklyn Nets (Dec. 13): Led by 2, outscored 30-24 in 4th, lost by 4
• New York Knicks (Dec. 15): Led by 2, outscored 42-23 in 4th, lost by 17
• Dallas Mavericks (Dec. 25): Led by 1, outscored 37-22 in 4th, lost by 14
• Memphis Grizzlies (Jan. 7): Led by 11, outscored 35-18 in 4th, lost by 6
• Indiana Pacers (Jan. 26): Led by 9, outscored 28-17 in 4th, lost by 2
• Orlando Magic (Jan. 28): Led by 3, outscored 31-13 in 4th, lost by 15

But as horrifically memorable as some of those games were (and trust us, we won’t soon forget the Suns coughing up two games to the Lakers, getting outscored 31-13 by OKC while shooting 2-for-21, or KD getting ripped in that last-second Spurs loss), only 10 of the 46 fourth quarters they’ve lost this season fit into this “choke” category. And if you eliminate the “garbage time” wins where the Suns led by double digits but lost the final frame, their -230 total point differential in fourth quarters suddenly drops to a much less horrendous -87.

Granted, these categories don’t take into account the emotions of some topsy-turvy wins where Phoenix opened the door for their opponent before ultimately pulling out the win. Great teams should avoid bad habits like allowing inferior competition a chance to pull off those types of comebacks.

But the Suns have been better in this regard, and in the modern NBA where 3-point shooting is king, no lead is ever truly safe.

“Look, some of these fourth quarters, again, they’re all shapes and sizes,” Vogel said. “We’re all getting tired of talking about it. A team’s gonna come out and try to trap everything and gamble and not play solid defense and reach and invite you to go to the rim and try to force. They try to speed you up. So you’re not facing the same defense in the first quarter where you scored 46 points that you’re facing in the fourth quarter where you’re trying to preserve the lead, take care of the basketball but not get sped up. So it’s just different challenges.”

Look back at the dates for those 10 “choke” losses real quick. Phoenix hasn’t had one in two and a half months now. In fact, the Suns are 42-10 in games where they lead through three quarters — not quite up to the lofty standards of that 2021-22 Suns team that went a perfect 47-0 when leading through three quarters, but also nowhere near as bad as their reputation suggests.

After all, that 2021-22 Suns team — you know, the one that was a league-best 33-9 in games that involved “clutch” minutes — wasn’t spared from a cataclysmic playoff fate just because they could execute down the stretch. As it turns out, if you’re getting blown out by 20 in every playoff loss, none of that crunch-time prowess really matters much!

This year’s Suns team has been lackluster in the clutch, with an 18-20 record, but they’ve only been outscored by a grand total of nine points in those 38 games. In other words, there’s plenty of room for improvement, but this team has been better in the fourth quarter over the last few weeks.

So where can the Suns actually improve in the 4th quarter?

Ask Vogel or any Suns player where this team has improved the most in fourth quarters lately, and “pace” will come up.

“Our pace has stayed pretty good in the fourth quarter,” Grayson Allen said. “In some of those games, we slow down a good bit when we have the lead, and that kinda accidentally leads to us taking the foot off the gas.”

He’s not wrong. According to NBA.com, the Suns’ pace dips from 101.14 in the first quarter (14th in the NBA), to 100.68 in the second (11th), to 99.61 in the third (15th), and then all the way to 95.09 in the fourth (23rd). The Suns want to maximize possessions and milk the clock when they have a lead, but in the process, they’re sacrificing the tempo that makes them impossible to guard in the first place.

“I think our pace slows down, which I think it comes from a good place,” Devin Booker explained. “I think it comes from trying to value every possession and get the best available shot every time down, but if you look at our first quarters or our first halves, we’re playing with constant pace and constant speed. Just realizing that’s what works for us, and even at the end of the game, usually your best available shot is the first or second pass.”

The most glaring part of the Suns’ fourth-quarter metrics is how bad they’ve been on offense. Their 30th-ranked offensive rating is nearly four points per 100 possessions worse than the next-closest team. They’re also 30th in field-goal attempts, 29th in assist-to-turnover ratio and 29th in turnover percentage.

So yes, that well-documented turnover problem is still very much a problem in the fourth quarter!

“When you have possessions where you’re at least getting a shot up on the rim, especially in the fourth quarter, we’re not having those empty possessions where they get a turnover, usually leads to a good bucket,” Allen explained. “So keeping our pace, not turning the ball over and getting stops.”

Vogel has described the approach as “attack but don’t force.” Opponents throw all kinds of junk defenses at the Big 3 regardless, but that’s especially true late in games when Phoenix is clinging to any kind of lead. Durant has chalked up a lot of the Suns’ turnovers as guys trying to make the home run play instead of hitting singles — the intention is good, but it’s all about finding the appropriate pace to cut down on unpredictability.

“Making sure we’re organized is a big thing,” Bradley Beal said. “Not turning it over is probably our biggest Achilles heel.”

Speaking of Beal, part of the Suns’ struggle to find consistency comes down to lack of time together. The Big 3 has only played 36 games together so far, leading to some fluctuating roles. Lately, Beal has had to fill a number of holes for Phoenix, including spending more time as the point guard.

But aside from needing him to orchestrate more offense, the Suns also want Beal to be aggressive as a scorer. Due to his lack of availability, guys being in and out of the lineup, and having to adjust his mindset multiple times, Beal hasn’t been able to anchor those second unit lineups for most of the season, even when sharing the floor with Durant.

Booker would usually play the entire third quarter before resting, and in those minutes, the Suns’ leads typically fell apart. According to NBA.com, all fourth-quarter Suns lineups that feature Beal without Booker are a -91 overall in 195 minutes. And because Beal’s missed so many games, when Booker’s breaks left KD to fend for himself, those fourth-quarter lineups were a -29 in 126 minutes together.

So for a team that’s been outscored by a total of 230 points in the fourth quarter this season, 120 of them came with Booker getting his allotted rest. It’s the reason the Suns want to empower Beal in those early fourth-quarter lineups, and in recent weeks, with a more stable bench rotation, those groups have become more reliable.

“I think we’ve found a groove now in the fourth, Beal said. “Coach has found a good rotation that he likes too, so we’re gonna keep riding with it.”

It’s worth noting that all the noise around this topic has made it something of a mental block. Even though it hasn’t been a prevalent issue over the last few weeks, it’ll still crop up from time to time. And at that point, with so much talent at their disposal, it becomes mind over matter to avoid tensing up.

“I think sometimes we put a lot of pressure on, ‘Oh, it’s the fourth, we gotta make sure we’re –‘ Just hoop,” Beal siad. “Just keep doing what we’ve been doing. Let’s enjoy it. They’re good. They’re pros just like us. They’re gonna go on runs, so I think just not being flatter when teams go on runs, just being able to withstand them.”

Over the last three wins against the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Cavaliers, the Suns sustained double-digit leads in the fourth and never let doubt creep in. They’re no late-game goliath just yet, but at the most important time of the year, they’re finally taking steps in the right direction.

“Well, it’s improving,” Vogel said of the Suns’ fourth-quarter execution. “I still think we can score at a higher clip. But we’re getting stops, and we’re preventing them from making runs. That’s good enough, but ideally, you put your foot on the gas and you see a 20-point lead go up to 30. That’s what we’re hoping for.”