Blazers loss proves off-ball Chris Paul still a work in progress for Suns

Tied at 106 in the fourth quarter, with the shot clock turned off, the Phoenix Suns had a chance to have the final word in Friday night’s game. The Portland Trail Blazers double-teamed Devin Booker, who found an open Mikal Bridges flashing to the middle. Bridges turned, stumbled and wound up traveling. Chris Paul was open on the backside but didn’t touch the ball on the Suns’ final possession.

None of this was unusual in and of itself, nor is it the sole reason they lost. And despite falling to the shorthanded Blazers for the second time in the last few weeks on a Jerami Grant buzzer-beater, the Suns reiterated it was the right play.

“They double-team me, and I’m gonna give it to him every time — and whoever’s in that position, whoever’s open on this team,” Booker said. “That’s what it comes down to: trusting your teammates, and every possession, I’m gonna do that.”

“He’s been there before,” coach Monty Williams said of Bridges. “Usually when teams hit Book, we put [Bridges] in the middle and he makes plays out of that, whether it’s a midrange jump shot or he finds [Deandre Ayton] under the basket or he finds Chris on the backside. Just a tough result.”

As much as Bridges has frequently served as an outlet for Book when he’s doubled, he hasn’t often been in that position — making decisions with the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

That goes double for Chris Paul, who’s clearly still adjusting to spending more time off the ball this season. CP3 not being involved in a crucial play in the clutch? We’ve seen the Suns manage just fine in crunch-time without him being directly involved. Booker (56.9 percent), Bridges (65.6 percent), Ayton (81.8 percent), Cam Johnson (58.3 percent) and Jae Crowder (45 percent) all shot absurd percentages in the clutch last year. Phoenix was just a well-oiled machine that could beat opponents in a number of ways down the stretch.

But in the rare type of crunch-time game where the Suns come up short, against a team missing Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, where Paul only takes four shots all night? Suddenly the lessons being learned become more evident.

“It’s hard to say,” Williams answered when asked about Paul only attempting four shots. “Sometimes the game dictates that. If you look at everybody else’s shots, 84 is not a ton of shots. I would say we just didn’t get enough across the board, and then that is reflected in Chris’ attempts. I’m not quite sure why he didn’t get — I mean, he had 11 assists, so he was trying to move it around a little bit, but yeah, we’d love to have Chris take more shots. Four is just not enough.”

Chris Paul taking a step back

Of course, this is nothing new. The Point God taking on a more sacrificial role was predictable, and the numbers back it up so far. Through eight games, Paul is averaging just 9.8 points on 8.5 field goal attempts per game — down from the 14.7 points on 11.3 shot attempts per game he averaged last season.

Paul is also sporting the lowest usage rate of his career at 15.5 percent, down from 19.7 and 22.1 percent over the last two years in Phoenix. He was averaging about seven more passes per game coming into Friday’s contest compared to last year, speaking to his willingness to get off the ball, and he’s receiving a couple more passes per game, attesting to how that ball is moving with so many other guys initiating on offense.

“We wanted to be just harder to guard,” Paul said. “A lot of teams last year in the playoffs was trying to pick me up full-court and just me being the primary ball-handler.”

Fortunately, Paul is still a hyper-efficient facilitator, even while taking a step back and letting other guys expand their playmaking. The Point God is once again leading the NBA in assists at 11.0 per game, which is tied for the second-best mark in his Hall-of-Fame career.

His ratio of 88 assists to just 12 turnovers is insane, and even over this recent rough stretch, Paul has 38 assists to only one turnover in the last three games. It may not feel like it, but he’s stepped up and made plays late in games too.

Chris Paul's Q4 vs MIN:

8pts 2-2 from 2, 1-1 from 3, & 3ast 7 ast pts created. Accountable for 15pts. He was their closer & also stopped the MIN early Q4 run, via:

· spacing manipulation
· lowman manipulation
· stretching the Wolves defense, with PnR + spacing

🔊 Sound On 🔊 pic.twitter.com/IjMQyBVgg6

— Stephen PridGeon ☯️🏁 (@StayTrueSDot3) November 4, 2022

“I think it’s a healthy balance of everybody kind of taking on more, and then at the same time him continuing to be him,” Cam Johnson said after the Minnesota Timberwolves win. “He’s a Hall-of-Fame point guard, so you don’t want to take him out of the game. But he’s doing a tremendous job of still managing the game from every spot that he’s in.”

The 3-point problem

Unfortunately, that saying about old dogs and new tricks has endured the test of time for a reason. Here in Year 18, CP3 is clearly still adjusting to playing off the ball, especially when it comes to all the catch-and-shoot looks he’s getting.

“We just think Chris is turning down too many shots,” Williams said bluntly last week. “Everybody’s on Chris about shooting, he’s probably sick of everybody telling him, but we just want him to quickly shoot it, don’t think. He thinks the right play is getting somebody else a shot in a catch-shot and roll because we have good catch-shooters.”

The results haven’t been great. Coming off a season in which Paul only made 31.7 percent of his triples, he’s started off an abysmal 7-for-29 this season (24.1 percent). Last year, Paul’s poor 3-point efficiency was defensible, since a whopping 139 of his 199 long-range attempts came off pull-ups.

This year, however, 16 of his attempts have been pull-up 3s and 13 have been catch-and-shoot looks. There’s been more balance, which would normally be encouraging for a guy who’s made 43.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s dating back to 2013-14 (as far back as catch-and-shoot tracking data goes on NBA.com).

Unfortunately, Paul has made just three of his 13 catch-and-shoot 3s.

And his pull-up game hasn’t been great either, at 4-for-16. A lot of them don’t feel like they’re in flow, coming either too early or too late in the shot clock:

Most importantly, though, has been the willingness to shoot. After the Warriors game, which was the only time this season he’s made multiple 3s or shot at least 50 percent from the field, Paul exasperatedly joked about everyone being on his case.

“I shot eight of ’em last game!” Paul said of his 3-point attempts against the LA Clippers. “But when you got so many weapons on our team, a lot of times you’re facilitating. I’m gonna shoot, I promise. I’m gonna shoot.”

Williams and Paul have both said that getting CP3 off the ball more is something he’s wanted for a few years now. From the Suns’ perspective, it not only prevents Paul from bearing too much of the offensive burden at age 37, but it also gives guys like Bridges, Johnson and even Landry Shamet the chance to grow as initiators on offense. The goal is for Phoenix to have multiple options that can burn opponents when defenses key in on Paul and Booker come playoff time.

For that to become a reality, however, Paul has to play off the ball. And in order for that to work, he has to be a 3-point threat, which has been one of the team’s bigger problem areas early on.

It’s not like he isn’t trying. Through eight games, a whopping 29 of Paul’s 68 field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc. That’s nearly 43 percent of his shots coming from 3-point range, which is a significant spike from last year, when only 27 percent of his shots came from downtown.

“Majority of my career, I’ve always been the playmaker, so it’s nice to get a few catch-and-shoots,” Paul said. “It’s something I gotta get used to, ’cause I’m usually always creating for other guys, but it’s been nice to get some catch-and-shoots.”

Still, considering how many 3s Paul has passed up, those attempts could be even higher. Almost every single one of the plays in the clip below winds up being a wise decision for Paul, using pump-fakes to get by poor closeouts and either pull up for midrange jumpers, get to the basket or find open teammates for an assist.

But you’ll also notice how quickly defenders can close out on Paul’s slower release these days. For a 6-foot-1 guard, the extra time it’s taking to load up that shot — combined with his pass-first mentality — means he’s been limited to only the most wide-open catch-and-shoot opportunities.

“I think he’s just really intentional about what he thinks is the right play, which is somebody else taking the shot,” Williams said. “And [assistant coach] Kevin Young, Book, [equipment manager] Jay Gaspar, [team travel coordinator] Denise Romero, like, everybody’s telling Chris to shoot the ball because he’s a good shooter. And whether it’s off the dribble or in catch-shot environments, we want him to shoot. Because a lot of times, when you turn down the shot, it throws off your rhythm a bit.”

The bigger picture

Whether he’s unable to get those 3s up quicker, is looking to pass, or is overthinking while trying to decide between the two, that lack of rhythm — especially for a guy who’s mostly been ball-dominant for the first 17 years of his NBA career — might help explain the drastic dip in his shooting percentages:

• Last year: 49.3 FG%, 31.7 3P%, 58.1 TS%
• This year: 35.3 FG%, 24.1 3P%, 48.8 TS%

Eight games could just be small sample size theater, but it’s obvious Paul has been trying to find the right balance between staying in the flow of the game, playmaking, letting his teammates take the wheel and figuring out when to take over with his own scoring.

Williams has used more all-bench lineups to afford Paul longer rests. When he’s in the game, the Suns want to play him off the ball 15-20 percent of the time. Their research indicates the guys who dribble 300-400 times a night get worn out faster — a fate they want to save CP3 from after he looked like a shell of himself during Phoenix’s second-round playoff loss.

“I look at it differently than everyone else,” Williams explained. “I look at it from a production standpoint, the ability to run your stuff efficiently, but also the immeasurable impact that it could have on Chris and Book not being as tired.”

Williams has called Paul a “willing adjuster,” likening this stage of his career to Peyton Manning checking down with the Denver Broncos in order to continue competing for championships. That’s not the most reassuring comparison for those fearing Chris Paul is “washed,” but even with his early struggles, the Suns are 6-2 and witnessing plenty of growth from Bridges and Johnson (when he’s been out there, at least).

It’s only natural to worry about Paul regressing, but so far, most of the signs point to small sample sizes, sacrifice by design, and a new adjustment process 18 years into his career. It’s just more glaring on nights like Friday, when Johnson was sidelined and Bridges fell short.

“Just always looking at the bigger picture,” Paul said. “Obviously I’ve been in situations where you have a great regular season and not great playoffs and stuff like that. So just every day, every game, just building for something bigger than the the wins in October, December, you know what I mean? Just building.”