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Bourguet Breakdown: Suns could use a return to form from Cam Payne
Tied for the NBA’s best record at 30-9, the Phoenix Suns are in a pretty good place. Despite Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and a host of other Suns players missing games left and right, this team’s impressive depth, reliable system and ingrained culture have them in the running for the top seed in the Western Conference.
But after watching the Suns go 4-4 over the last eight games, and witnessing Klay Thompson’s triumphant return for the Golden State Warriors, some of the roster’s shortcomings feel easier to nitpick. At the top of that list is getting Cam Payne back on track.
The most basic of box scores wouldn’t indicate anything is wrong. Payne’s increased his scoring average from 8.4 points to 10.4 points per game compared to last year, while averaging an identical 3.6 assists per game. He’s playing slightly more minutes at 20.5 per game, and he’s one of seven active Suns averaging double digits in the scoring column.
Unfortunately, dig even a smidge deeper than surface level and it becomes pretty clear that Cam Payne is a long way off from last year’s breakout campaign:
- 2020-21 stats: 48.4 FG%, 44.0 3P%, 60.2 TS%, 0.158 win shares per 48 minutes
- 2021-22 stats: 38.8 FG%, 32.2 3P%, 48.2 TS%, 0.037 win shares per 48 minutes
While last year’s 8.4 points came on a meager 6.6 field goal attempts per game, this year, Payne is putting up 10.4 points on 10.0 shot attempts per game, dangerously approaching “more shots than points territory.” Among all NBA players with a usage rate of at least 20 percent who have played in 25+ games, Payne’s true-shooting percentage is fifth-worst in the league. And after being a spark plug for Phoenix’s unit last year, the Suns’ +3.0 Net Rating with Payne on the court skyrockets to +9.7 when he rests — the highest figure among anyone who’s suited up for the team except 10-day signee Emanuel Terry.
So how did we get to this point, coming off what felt like a legitimate breakthrough? And more importantly, what does Cam Payne need to do to get things back on track? To sort it out, it’s time for another Bourguet Breakdown.
Cam Payne’s shooting
The first step to fixing something is identifying the problem and its source. Laying out the raw numbers is instructive but solves nothing in terms of how Phoenix can get its fan favorite backup back on track.
“I think I can help him more by just letting him be who he is,” coach Monty Williams offered. “Cam’s not the kind of guy that’s just going to go out there and jack up shots ’cause he’s trying to put up numbers. He’s going out there shooting what he feels like are shots he can make because he wants to help the team.”
Unfortunately, in this case, the numbers are down across the board, and one of the first undeniable takeaways is hard to scheme for: Cam Payne is simply missing shots he hit last year.
If the 12-point dip in both 3-point percentage and true-shooting percentage didn’t hammer it home already, his numbers as both a spot-up shooter and an off-the-dribble gunner have plummeted.
Payne ranks in the 28th percentile as a spot-up shooter, with his efficiency nosediving from 43.6 percent last year to 33.3 percent so far this year. He’s making just 36.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s, down from last year’s ballistic 48.9 percent.
He’s found himself taking more difficult shots as well. His number of tightly contested shots (nearest defender 2-4 feet away) has soared from 2.5 attempts per game last year to 4.3 a night this year, and his percentage on those shots has dipped from 50.3 percent to 39.9 percent. He hasn’t fared well on his open looks either though; according to NBA.com, he’s plunged from 49.2 percent shooting on “wide-open” 3s to a paltry 30.9 percent this season on a similar number of attempts.
There’s not much the Suns can do about Payne missing looks like these:
As you’ll notice from these clips, it’s not just spot-up looks that aren’t falling. Last year, Payne was a sneaky-good shooter off the dribble, canning 37.3 percent of his pull-up 3s. This year, he’s only making 23.5 percent of those attempts, which is the fourth-worst mark in the entire NBA among all players with at least 50 such attempts.
Add it all up, and it’s not entirely surprising Payne’s effective field goal percentage has crashed from the 93rd percentile at his position last year to the 26th percentile so far this season.
The question is, is this a regression to the mean after an unsustainable breakout year? Or is Payne due for a progression to his Phoenix mean, as the Law of Averages would dictate?
It’s hard to tell. Before putting on a Suns jersey, Payne was a career 33.1 percent shooter from downtown. Since arriving in Phoenix, he’s been a 40.3 percent marksman from beyond the arc.
Whatever the case may be, the Suns seem perfectly fine with Payne continuing to try to shoot himself out of this slump. Shorthanded and on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers in a mid-December back-to-back, Payne drilled a crucial triple late in the fourth quarter of the Suns’ eventual overtime win, and Williams was quick to identify it as the type of confidence he wants his shooters to have.
“He’s a goldfish, you know?” Williams said. “When it comes to shooting, he’s got a short memory. But the 3 he hit was huge, to be able to shake up and shoot that shot like it’s the first quarter, that’s our ‘let it fly’ mentality. And like I said about [Cam Johnson] and Cam Payne, we want those guys taking those shots.”
Cam Payne’s drives
Ironically enough, it was before that very same Blazers game that Monty Williams made a joke about Payne’s shot selection:
“I don’t want guys looking over their shoulders after taking shots…except Cam Payne, he’s the one that kind of gets in my craw sometimes,” he said with a laugh.
Williams’ comment was purely tongue-in-cheek, but it quietly pointed to another aspect of Cam Payne’s struggles this year, confirmed by both the eye test and the numbers: It just feels like he’s pressing too much.
It’s not born of selfishness, of course. Payne just got a three-year contract extension, and as much as it was a bargain and a steal for Phoenix, his struggles aren’t about his next payday, but rather, trying to help a team find some semblance of equilibrium after having guys in and out of the lineup all year. In fact, he called providing energy for his teammates to feed off of his “job within the job.”
“We get to see how the game is unfolding, and you kind of get to see what we need,” Payne said. “For me, it’s like man, change the pace, bring some energy to the game. And I just try to do that every night.”
However, as noble as his intentions may be, that doesn’t change that he forces the issue a little too often. Payne’s usage has jumped from 22.8 percent last year (36th percentile at his position) to 29 percent this year (95th percentile) — an unfortunate trade-off considering he’s nearly doubled his turnovers from last year (1.0 to 1.9 per game) despite only playing 2.5 more minutes a night.
On the one hand, the Suns need another ball-handler to attack and take some of the pressure off Chris Paul and Devin Booker to set everything up. After all, that’s the point of having a backup point guard, and Payne has upped his drives from 6.3 per game last year to 9.8 a night this season.
“His ability to get to the basket flattens out the defense, and playing with Chris, especially with Book out, gives us another ball-handler,” Williams explained. “So if they try to take Chris out, we have somebody else that can facilitate offense and we’re not as stagnant when we only have one ball-handler on the floor.”
The problem is, Payne is often going so fast when he gets downhill that things snowball and get out of control pretty quickly. The increased drives aren’t necessarily a good thing when his shooting on those plays has plummeted from 51.1 percent last year to 39.2 percent, per NBA.com. That problem becomes compounded when his percentage of passes made on drives has dipped from 41.3 percent to 29.8 percent his year — the seventh-lowest figure among all players with at least 300 drives. Oh, and his turnover percentage jumped from 5.6 percent to 8.3 percent, the NBA’s 10th-highest mark.
“I just think the biggest thing for him is just staying aggressive but doing it where it’s not reckless,” assistant Kevin Young said during his stint as acting head coach. “Kind of toeing that line, because as we saw even in some huge games last year, he helped us tremendously with that, and that game the other night, he helped us tremendously with it. So I think it’s toeing that line, and when he does it well, he’s an X-factor for us.”
Unfortunately, Payne’s finishing around the basket has gone from average to brutal. Part of what makes his game so thrilling is the crafty, impossible-to-reach layups he lofts toward the rafters over rim protectors. The 6-foot-3 is never going to rise up and dunk over the trees, nor is he one to create contact, drawing only 1.7 free-throw attempts per game.
So how does he compensate? By tossing up some stylish, breathtaking and truly ambitious attempts around the basket…which don’t find the bottom of the net as often as Phoenix would like:
Payne is acutely aware he’s undersized compared to most of his defenders, but using his speed to his advantage often sees him careening toward the rim at full speed, trying to sneak soft layups past defenders’ outstretched hands before they arrive, all while compensating for the high velocity he’s using to get to his spot in the first place.
It’s a nearly impossible combination to master, and it’s probably why Payne’s shooting at the rim has dropped from 57 percent to 49 percent this year, which ranks in the 16th percentile at his position, per Cleaning The Glass.
That inability to finish around the basket seeps into other areas of his game too. After shooting 60 percent on fast breaks last year, he’s down to just the 31st percentile in transition, shooting 48.9 percent. He’s in the 24th percentile on isos after being in the 89th percentile last year, and he’s only in the 49th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, committing more turnovers and generally struggling to find the right balance between putting pressure on the rim and finding his teammates.
“I think at times, he can try to facilitate and be like Chris, when they’re two different types of guards,” Williams said. “I don’t want him thinking about that as much as I want him being aggressive and changing the game. And sometimes that means he has to change it with his scoring. We’ve seen him score and facilitate and find guys. I don’t want him thinking as much as I’ve seen him think this year, and I believe he’s trying to balance it all out. That may be a reason why the numbers have not been as good as they were last year, but still a lot of basketball to be played.”
Harnessing the energy
There’s no denying the effect a Cam Payne hot streak can have on the Suns and their home crowd. He’s a fan favorite for a reason. As an energy guy, an underdog and a Phoenician that the Valley has embraced as one of its own, Payne’s slingshot-release, rainbow 3s and his high-arching, insane-degree-of-difficultly layups just hit different.
“I even said something to him kind of jokingly a couple weeks ago about, ‘Man, hey Cam, when you get going and you get hyped, it gets me hyped,'” Young said. “Last game he got the whole arena kind of going. So it is, it’s infectious.”
That even extends to his bouncy pregame energy, which has become routine viewing for those who show up early enough to the arena:
“As far as the pregame stuff, I think at this point, everyone’s just kind of, ‘That’s Cam,’ you know what I mean?” Young said with a laugh.
“I’m in the NBA, that’s all I need,” Payne explained. “That’s enough energy for me. That’s a blessing. There’s only 400 and some players, and I’m one of them guys. Gotta be happy every day. I mean, how can you not? I’m doing something I dreamed of. It’s a blessing every time I get on the court. So you gotta be happy, gotta have fun with it also.”
And therein lies the conundrum: How do you rein in an energy guy coming off a career year? How do you tell a guy with that perspective to dial it back a notch? How do you find the balance between providing that infectious energy while still staying under control?
“Honestly, I don’t know how to answer that one, ’cause it’s tough,” Payne admitted. “‘Cause I’m worried about myself, but you gotta put the team first if you’re not making shots but you’re bringing the intensity defensively. Gotta have a straight mind.”
Williams has told Payne that he needs to be “the most solid guy on the court,” but more concretely, developing a dependable floater would go a long way. As long as Payne’s finishing remains this herky-jerky, those tunnel vision drives will continue to play into the defense’s hands. So why not kill it before it grows by sharpening another tool in the shed, all without even having to get deep into the weeds?
It’ll take some time, of course. NBA.com’s shot tracking data isn’t full-proof, but Payne’s 34.7 percent shooting on all types of floaters this season isn’t going to cut it. He’s actually increased his frequency of shot attempts on short midrange looks (4-14 feet) from 28 to 37 percent, ranking in the 92nd percentile. The problem is, he’s only made 37 percent of those looks, per Cleaning The Glass, which is way down from his 48 percent conversion rate on those looks from last season.
If Payne can learn to slow down when he gets into the lane and probe defenses a little more effectively with either a reliable floater or a composed kickout, he’ll get his season back on track, and maybe that rim will start to look a little bigger on some of those 3-pointers too.
If that happens, and if the Suns get more continuity out of a second unit that’s still learning how to incorporate Landry Shamet, Cam Payne’s current struggles could give way to some overdue progression to the mean.
“I think the rotations have been different for him this year, adding Landry, and that can throw you off a little bit, so hopefully he’ll find his footing,” Williams said. “We feel like he’s been pretty effective for us, even though the numbers may not match up to what they were last year.”
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