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The latest Bradley Beal injury is here, and it comes at arguably the most critical juncture of the Phoenix Suns‘ season.
According to coach Mike Budenholzer, Beal will be sidelined for at least a week with a left hamstring strain, which sidelined him for the second half of Phoenix’s loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday.
“Brad will be out a week, we’ll re-evaluate him in one week,” Budenholzer said before Monday’s 129-89 win over the Toronto Raptors. “He had an MRI today, and we’ll be hopeful that this next week goes well and re-evaluate him then.”
Despite Monday’s win, Phoenix is still five games below .500 and one game out of the final Western Conference play-in spot. Beal has already missed 21 games this year, coming off a similarly injury-ravaged campaign last year, where he missed 29 games. With a one-week timetable for re-evaluation, it’s likely he’ll miss Phoenix’s next three games, and he’s also missed the second half of two different games in March due to injuries flaring up.
The most frustrating part — aside from his $50.2 million salary — is that it’s always a some new Bradley Beal injury. From his back to his knee to his calves to a toe sprain to his hamstrings to a broken nose, Beal is either thoroughly snakebitten, incapable of playing through minor injuries without exacerbating them, or both.
Looking solely at his stats, one might be tempted to think Beal has done his part when healthy. The third option behind Kevin Durant and Devin Booker was never going to be a high-volume scorer, and Beal’s 17.3 points, 3.6 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game on 50.5 percent shooting from the floor and 39.5 shooting percent from 3 aren’t terrible.
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But those numbers are down slightly from last year’s 18.2 points, 5.0 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game on 51.3 percent shooting overall and 43 percent from 3, and they certainly don’t tell the whole story. According to NBA.com, the Suns sport a team-worst -7.8 Net Rating with Beal on the court, which is somehow even worse than Jusuf Nurkic’s -6.5. Phoenix’s Net Rating leaps to +3.7 when Beal sits.
Phoenix didn’t do Beal any favors, muddying his already fluctuating role by bringing a point guard into the equation, moving him to the bench instead of Tyus Jones, and then finally caving and putting him back in the starting lineup. But unlike last year, when Beal’s injuries were a problem but at least the team succeeded with him healthy, the Suns have largely struggled with Beal available. The contrast between last year’s success with the Big 3 and this year’s ineptitude couldn’t be more obvious:
- Suns Big 3 last year: +127 in 862 minutes, 26-15 record in 41 games, +6.6 Net Rating, 120.5 O-rating, 114.0 D-rating
- Suns Big 3 this year: -45 in 667 minutes, 19-18 record in 37 games, -4.1 Net Rating, 112.4 O-rating, 116.5 D-rating
Combine all of that with all the Bradley Beal injury woes, and he’s become a significant obstacle to the Suns building any momentum entering this brutal home stretch. This is the “easiest” four-game stretch they have left, with Toronto, the Chicago Bulls, Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers on deck. After that, it’s the Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets, Bucks again, Celtics again, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder before closing out the season with the San Antonio Spurs and Sacramento Kings.
In other words, this latest Bradley Beal injury may determine whether Phoenix can build up any sort of momentum before the gauntlet begins…or whether the most expensive team in NBA history is really about to miss the play-in entirely. Bearing all that in mind, here are three things the Suns owe it to themselves to evaluate over this critical stretch, both for this season and beyond.
3. Bradley Beal injury = more Collin Gillespie minutes
Monte Morris didn’t get a fair shake this season, and as a 29-year-old veteran on a vet minimum deal, it feels likely he’ll leave this summer. To that end, and because Collin Gillespie is younger, the Suns should evaluate what they’ve got in their two-way point guard who rapidly went from “too good for the G League” to “starting in Beal’s place.”
When Beal went down with the hamstring injury against the Lakers, it was Gillespie who replaced him in the starting lineup for the second half, and that carried over into Monday’s game against Toronto. He hasn’t been able to completely replicate the impact he had in that remarkable fourth-quarter comeback against the LA Clippers, but Gillespie actually tries on defense, has been a reliable shooter throughout his career and has done enough to warrant a look as next year’s backup point guard.
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Plus/minus can be a flawed stat, but heading into Monday’s game against Toronto, Gillespie had the best total plus/minus of any Sun since the Clippers game, as a +34 in just 75 minutes.
Gillespie only turns 26 in June, and he’d be relatively cheap to retain. The Suns have the inside track here, and they should take advantage of it. But first, they should continue feeding him minutes as one of the few fringe rotation players who’s made the most of his opportunities.
Since that 10-points-in-15-minutes performance against LA, Gillespie has played 5, 3, 13, 5, 11, 23 and 16 minutes. His playing time is trending in the right direction, and with Beal out, it should be easier to give him more chances to prove he could be a legitimate rotation piece on a different (and hopefully better) Suns squad next year.
One small caveat: Gillespie doesn’t need starter’s minutes, or to even start, but Budenholzer’s response when asked about how Gillespie looked with the starters Monday night was less than encouraging, especially once Beal and Grayson Allen are back.
“I think Collin was good,” Budenholzer said. “He’s out there trying to get us organized and set us up, but I thought Tyus [Jones]’ shot-making, the two of them in combination, and Tyus, I thought, really shot it well. I feel like this is two out of three games where he’s really shot the ball, and he and Book kind of playing off of each other, and I thought Tyus’ shot-making and just playmaking and everything was really big in that stretch.”
Always good when you ask a question about Collin Gillespie and get an extended response about his direct competition!
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2. Bradley Beal injury = more Cody Martin
The Suns had to wait almost six weeks for Cody Martin’s debut, but in his first two games, we’ve seen more than enough to warrant a place in this rotation. Like quite a few Suns, Martin’s future in Phoenix is uncertain, since his $8.7 million salary for next year is fully non-guaranteed. He only has a handful of games left in the season to prove he should be more than just cap savings over the summer.
And the Suns should give him that chance! In his first and only stint against the Lakers, Martin only managed 3 points, but he was active on the glass (6 rebounds in 8 minutes) racked up one of his patented chase-down blocks, and was a +4 in his time on the court.
“Considering the circumstances, I thought he played really well,” Budenholzer said of Martin’s debut in LA. “Found a way to impact the game defensively, offensively. So, encouraged by what he did in his minutes.”
Martin followed that up with another solid effort, putting up 2 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds and 3 steals in 19 minutes off the bench. He only shot 1-for-6 overall, but his defensive effort, his willingness to run the floor, and his underrated passing all stood out as he was a +24.
“I think the most obvious is defensively, just his athleticism, his ability to cover ground, cover different guys,” Mike Budenholzer said. “But I think there’s a really smart player on both ends of the court….I think everybody talks about Cody’s IQ defensively or his abilities defensively. I think he’s got some stuff that he does offensively that can help us too.”
Everything he’s flashed shouldn’t come a surprise to those who read or watched our Bourguet Breakdown on Martin’s game. But even the uninitiated can tell that Phoenix should give Martin ample opportunities to prove he can help the new-look version of this team next year.
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As a bonus, Martin can help right now too. Both Devin Booker and Ryan Dunn brought up how vocal Martin’s been since his arrival in February.
“Yeah, he does a little bit of everything,” Booker said. “But most importantly, he’s been vocal even in the times that he hasn’t been in the game, just seeing things that he sees out there, and it translates.”
“From the first day he got here, he’s always been just trying to give me advice,” Dunn added. “He just loves just trying to be a good mentor in his questions. So being out on the floor with him and kind of just seeing it is a testament to his hard work, and what he’s been doing and getting back on the floor, it’s been good. That’s someone we need on this team, so I’m excited to be playing with him for the last couple of games.”
1. Bradley Beal injury = more wing-heavy, defensive-minded lineups around Book and KD
Consider this upcoming week without Beal as another trial run for what the Suns should look like if they build around Devin Booker and Kevin Durant correctly. And by that, we mean a bunch of younger, longer, more athletic, more defensive-minded players who will do the dirty work to make like easier on the stars.
There’s obviously no guarantee the Suns will be able to move Beal this summer. His no-trade clause is the most blatant obstacle, but perhaps the biggest issue is finding a team that would be willing to take on his massive contract and not demand more than one first-round pick in return. After the Suns dangled KD at the trade deadline, there’s no guarantee that bridge can be mended, and if Phoenix misses the play-in, everyone outside of Booker — including Durant — could be on the table.
However, with Durant still playing at an All-NBA level, there still has to be some part of the Suns brass that believes they can build better around their superstar duo if they can just get off of Beal’s contract, right? The front office owes it to themselves to evaluate the drastic differences that putting athletic, versatile defenders around Book and KD can make.
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In pregame, Budenholzer said Ryan Dunn and Cody Martin were two players the Suns would lean on more this week with the latest Bradley Beal injury. We already covered why Martin and Gillespie deserve minutes, and they fit comfortably into the “is an upgrade on defense simply by the magical power of giving a shit” category. But Dunn and Oso Ighodaro have needed more minutes for a long time, and the Suns’ recent results now that they’re getting minutes again have loudly backed that up.
Since Dunn started playing rotational minutes again four games ago, the Suns have ranked ninth in defensive rating — a massive improvement from their ranking of 26th on the season. Since being moved back into the starting lineup three games ago, Dunn has scored at least 13 points in all three, and although he hasn’t shot the ball well, his versatile defense, point-of-attack prowess and multiple-effort plays have made up for it.
As for Oso Ighodaro, he’s been a revelation since he was thrust back into the rotation four games ago. He’s averaged 8.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.5 blocks per game over that stretch, forcing Budenholzer to play him more in acknowledgement of the fact that he’s a team-high +60 in that span. Most of that came Monday night, when he was an absurd +39.
It also speaks volumes that the Suns’ face of the franchise continues to publicly go to bat for the rookies, praising not only their energy and athleticism, but their IQ as well.
“I think defensively, the versatility to be able to switch and still guard a guard, but still protect the rim,” Booker said of Ighodaro. “And offensively, just sprinting into screens, creating separation from the other big so they can’t be up to blitz us, and I just trust him in the pocket to make the right play on the backside every time.”
There’s no question that Ighodaro’s processing speed when he catches the ball in the short roll makes Booker and Durant’s lives easier. Ighodaro plays with pace, so when opponents blitz the Suns’ stars and put two defenders on the ball, their rookie can quickly make opponents pay once he receives the pass in the pocket.
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“His speed and his pace coming in and out of things and getting out of, if they’re putting two on Book or two on the ball, A, it makes it harder to put two on the ball, but then when he’s getting out, there’s ground that the defense has gotta cover and they gotta make reads and decisions,” Budenholzer explained. “And that’s kind of Oso’s strength.”
Of course, Budenholzer acknowledged that Ighodaro doesn’t get enough credit for his high IQ extending to the defensive end as well. And even the rookies, in all their youthful bliss, are touching on key points that make their minutes glaringly different from some of the older vets.
“Yeah, we were switching, but I think more than any scheme, I thought we just played hard and had each other’s back,” Ighodaro said. “We rotated for each other, flew around. If guys got beat, someone was there, and I feel like that’s something build off of.”
“I think those extra plays, those effort plays, scrambling around, causing havoc, rebounding, steals, deflections, all that stuff,” Dunn added. “Not even just Cody [Martin], everybody else, like Oso and Collin and us and everybody, just kind of bringing that role of effort every night.”
Unbeknownst to him, Dunn pretty much just laid out the blueprint for the guys who need to be playing! The guys who make Book and KD’s lives easier by simply being younger, more athletic, and making the type of multiple-effort defensive plays we hadn’t seen from this team in months! These are the guys who have to be playing over this next week without Beal, not just because they can help Phoenix make up ground in the play-in picture, but because this may be the Suns’ last attempt to remind the front office that you can build a contender around Booker and Durant if they’re surrounded by defensive-minded wings, younger athletes and more switchable, mobile bigs.
Despite all the noise around that nonchalant Beal quote, his agent told PHNX Sports recently that they never deal in absolutes, even go as far as suggesting they could be open to a move this summer. From grappling with a sixth man role, to this team being way worse than expected, to Suns fans making his kid cry at a home game, this season has gone south in a hurry.
The Suns will want to find a way out of Beal’s contract regardless of what happens with Durant, but the latest Bradley Beal injury could provide a glimpse of what Phoenix might look like if they find a way to move on from Beal and build around their two remaining stars correctly.
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