Breaking down the Phoenix Suns' greatest Achilles heel: Sloppy turnovers

The Phoenix Suns don’t resemble the title contender they were expected to be. They’re currently a play-in team, sitting in eighth in the Western Conference. They’re one of the worst fourth-quarter teams since the NBA started tracking that data, they don’t shoot enough 3-pointers…the list goes on and on.

But of all their Achilles heels, turnovers are by far the most frustrating. There was hope it was just an early-season fluke, a byproduct of an entirely new group learning to play with each other under a brand new coaching staff. Perhaps once Bradley Beal got healthy, they’d improve in this regard.

To put it succinctly, NOPE.

With 10 games left in the season, the Suns rank 25th in turnovers at 14.9 per game. The Utah Jazz, Detroit Pistons, Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies are the only teams worse on a nightly basis — four certified bottom-feeders that are a combined 60 games below .500. Not exactly prestigious company for a team with title aspirations!

The question is, what can we take from 72 games’ worth of turnovers? Is this issue fixable, or at least more manageable?

Because yours truly is a basketball masochist, I rewatched the film for all 1,015 player turnovers the Suns have committed so far this season. That excludes shot clock violations, which are categorized as team turnovers, but sifting through more than a thousand clips of Suns turnovers should be enough of a sample size to impart a few lessons about where this team actually struggles to take care of the ball and how they can realistically cut down on their reckless turnovers.

Breaking down the Suns’ general turnover numbers

As a disclaimer, I did my best to categorize these turnovers in order to pinpoint the areas that ail this team the most.

Turnovers aren’t always black and white, so these categories aren’t perfect. We should also note the objective isn’t to find a scapegoat. Teams will always turn the ball over, and some are inevitable. But in the interest of dissecting the problem, a few trends emerged that demanded their own category.

Among all 22 players who have suited up for the Suns this year, the starting five accounted for 705 of the team’s 1,015 turnovers. So as much as Eric Gordon may be prone to some doozies, we’re going to keep most of the focus on Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen, since those five have accounted for almost 70 percent of Phoenix’s turnovers:

• Durant: 213 turnovers (21%)
• Nurkic: 154 turnovers (15.2%)
• Booker: 146 turnovers (14.4%)
• Beal: 108 turnovers (10.6%)
• Allen: 84 turnovers (8.3%)

But since the “how” is more important than the “whom,” here’s a look at how those 1,015 turnovers divided up:

LOST BALL TURNOVERS: 252 total (24.8%)

• 25 turnovers from Kevin Durant inexplicably losing the ball or his balance (2.5%)
• 37 turnovers from Kevin Durant getting stripped by defender (3.6%)
• 24 turnovers from Jusuf Nurkic getting stripped or stumbling in the paint (2.4%)
• 120 turnovers from all other lost-ball turnovers (11.8%)
• 46 turnovers from 50-50 balls or immediately following a rebound (4.5%)

BAD PASS TURNOVERS: 563 total (55.5%)

• 100 turnovers from outright sloppy or lazy passes (9.9%)
• 25 turnovers from outright sloppy or lazy outlet passes (2.5%)
• 104 turnovers from bad passes that were deflected or stolen by defender in passing lane (10.2%)
• 85 turnovers from miscommunication errors or process of building familiarity (8.4%)
• 57 turnovers from “full speed drives with no plan” miscues (5.6%)
• 54 turnovers from overpassing and/or forcing passes to bigs or cutters in the paint (5.3%)
• 40 turnovers from Kevin Durant being double-teamed, blitzed or attracting two defenders to the ball (3.9%)
• 26 turnovers from Devin Booker being double-teamed, blitzed or attracting two defenders to the ball (2.6%)
• 15 turnovers from all other players being double-teamed, blitzed or attracting two defenders to the ball (1.5%)
• 27 turnovers from dropped or bobbled catches off clean passes (2.7%)
• 15 turnovers from “ambitious Nurk” passes (1.5%)
• 15 turnovers from high-quality defensive plays (1.5%)

OFFENSIVE FOUL TURNOVERS: 124 total (12.2%)

• 61 turnovers from illegal screens (6%)
• 38 turnovers from charges (3.7%)
• 25 turnovers from push-offs or other offensive fouls (2.5%)

MISCELLANEOUS TURNOVERS: 77 total (7.6%)

• 34 turnovers from general traveling violations (3.3%)
• 28 turnovers from player stepping out of bounds (2.8%)
• 15 turnovers from other various violations like 3 seconds, double-dribble, goaltending, etc. (1.5%)

Now let’s dive into where the Suns can improve.

Lost-ball turnovers

Despite the injuries, fourth-quarter collapses, high-volume turnovers and low-volume 3-point attempts, the Suns are still the NBA’s eighth-best offense. So after a 22-turnover outing against the Oklahoma City Thunder to start the month, it wasn’t surprising to hear the team acknowledge how cutting down on self-inflicted mistakes could raise their ceiling.

“I think we all agree in locker room that this shit’s gotta change,” Nurkic said. “It’s gotta really be the No. 1 thing in our mind, so we’ll see going forward something different.”

In most of their losses, the Suns fall victim to some kind of math — either falling short in the 3-point battle, or losing the possession game by allowing their opponent to attempt significantly more shots.

Turnovers matter there, and Phoenix gifts their opponents an average of 18.5 points off turnovers on a nightly basis, which ranks 27th. Cutting down on those easy runaway baskets alone might help them climb from 13th to a top-10 mark in defensive rating.

“We have the power,” Nurkic said. “We have people who can score the ball no matter what, and I think if we don’t turn [it] over, we’re gonna win a lot of games and we can be a dominant team as we wish.”

Flipping that switch starts on an individual level, because lost-ball turnovers accounted for basically one-quarter of their turnovers. And for those wondering why Durant was singled out in that category, it’s because this type of turnover affects him more than anyone else on the Suns.

According to Basketball-Reference, Durant’s 76 lost-ball turnovers represent the fourth-highest mark of any player in the NBA. For such a talented, smooth scorer, KD inexplicably loses control of the ball or his own balance more often than one would expect:

The occasional “whoopsie” is inevitable, even in the NBA. You could find at least one highlight like this for any player in the league.

But the frequency of bizarre, unforced errors like these from a player of Durant’s stature is strange, and it’s especially difficult to swallow considering how much attention and physicality he already faces each night.

Durant’s wiry frame leaves him susceptible to more physical play, with defenders trying to uproot him from his spots. It’s the only hope they have of slowing down the league’s eighth all-time leading scorer, but it’s been more effective against this 35-year-old, post-Achilles version of Durant.

That’s why coach Frank Vogel has been so vocal in going to bat for his superstar.

“I’ll start by saying that they fouled the shit out of Kevin Durant all night,” Vogel ranted after that Thunder loss. “Whether he has the ball and he’s getting stripped three or four, maybe five times, okay? And every time he tries to get open, he’s being held, which is something that I really want the league to look at.”

Durant himself downplayed that as an excuse, but he’s also been blunt about how defenses try to guard him by being ultra-physical and crowding his space. If we exclude that “50-50 ball” subcategory (which essentially punishes players for briefly gaining possession of a loose ball or rebound before losing it again), Durant has accounted for 30 percent of the Suns’ lost-ball turnovers.

That number has to come down for the guy who’s leading the Suns in turnovers and had the sixth-most turnovers in the NBA entering Tuesday night’s action.

He’s not alone in needing to emphasize ball security, of course. Devin Booker is another frequent offender, usually dribbling into the help defense or losing his handle when they collapse:

It makes sense the Big 3 would account for most of the lost-ball turnovers, but Nurk could also cut down on one or two of these on a nightly basis. The ground-bound big fella is prone to getting stripped if he’s in the paint for too long with the ball.

Nurk’s subpar finishing at the rim has been a flaw throughout his career, and he’s tried to use his sheer mass and strength to compensate, ramming his shoulder into anyone in his path before throwing up a hopeful shot at the rim. But if the defender can absorb that initial contact, or pull the chair out from under him, Nurk’s grip loosens in a hurry, and the ball usually gets poked away as a result:

Overpassing, miscommunication, and the Suns working to build chemistry

Vogel has emphasized “extra pass basketball” all season, which makes sense for a team that needs to generate more 3s and has a 20-3 record when they reach 30 assists.

But striking the balance between “unselfish” and “oversharing” can be difficult for a new team, especially with this Big 3 only playing 31 games so far. That’s probably why most Suns players point to “overpassing” when asked about the turnover issue.

“I would assess it as trying too hard to play the right way,” Vogel said. “Sometimes you really emphasize the extra pass, and then you can overpass, and in-game, I was just telling the guys to just let their instincts take over and just attack to score and then read. If you’re predetermined and try to overthink the extra pass, sometimes it creates turnover situations.”

“It’s almost better to shoot a bad shot than a turnover,” Nurkic added.

The Suns tend to overthink things, especially when someone gets past the first layer of the defense. Instead of pulling up for an easy shot or continuing to the rim, sometimes they try to squeeze in a pocket pass to one of their bigs, who are either covered or have little hope of retrieving the pass through such a tight window:

“I would say shoot more, especially in the paint,” Booker said. “Avoid those passes in the paint, those low bounce passes.”

“Shoot the ball,” Beal agreed. “That’s how you fix it. Don’t overpass it. That’s where a lot of our turnovers come from. We pass up a shot and we try to drive into the paint and we turn the ball over. Like, shoot the first shot. That avoids a lot of those. I think a lot of mine came from just staring down KD. Just play basketball. We can’t be robotic out there. We gotta just hoop.”

That extends to instances where the Suns dribble in at full speed to open up the drive-and-kick game, only to realize in midair the option they thought they had is no longer there. That typically leaves them with the last resort of flinging a desperate pass away from the collapsing defense:

However, as much as the Suns believe overpassing is their biggest issue, those mistakes only accounted for about 5 percent of their turnovers. A bigger issue has been those confounding “my bad” turnovers that stem from miscommunication and a general lack of continuity.

Watch the full 1:39 below, because it really is incredible how many times the Suns throw the ball to an empty spot expecting a guy to be there, botch a handoff, or misread a jab step as a back cut. And these highlights are only since the All-Star break!

From his handoffs to developing backdoor chemistry with Durant and Beal, Nurkic is a key cog in all of this. He’s an adept connector, but as we’ve seen with some of his outlet passes (more on this later), sometimes he’s a little too ambitious with trying to thread the needle:

For even the most experienced teams with peak chemistry, basketball is an imperfect game. Mistakes will happen. But this late in the season, it’s concerning there are still so many instances of miscommunication or just not being on the same page, because these are the kinds of miscues that just feel embarrassing, even if they only account for 8.4 percent of their turnovers.

How are the Suns handling double-teams?

Handling double-teams is particularly pertinent for a team with three players who may face them at various points in a playoff setting. Durant has struggled the most in this setting, and his recent comments about handling double-teams — while slightly blown out of proportion — did little to stem the concern.

In some of these clips, Durant either has to be stronger with the ball or make a better pass out of the double. But in several others, his teammates have to do a better job of spacing around him or making themselves available once the blitz comes:

“Offensively, a lot of our turnovers come from just dead possessions where we get stagnant,” Allen explained. “There’s nobody moving to help out the guy who has the ball, and they get put in a tough spot where it’s really hard to make a play or make the right play.”

Durant and Booker have encountered plenty of junk defenses in their time, and that’s been especially true this season, with opponents regularly changing coverages to keep the Suns on their toes.

But with Beal sidelined for nearly half the season and the supporting cast constantly shifting, it feels like Booker has somewhat regressed when it comes to dealing with doubles. Beal has also felt the pressure when he’s been out there, though obviously to a much lesser extent:

Because of his status as one of the greatest players ever, his absurd efficiency, and his presence as a post-up iso threat, Durant will always draw the most doubles. Opponents want to keep their defenses out of rotation by making his catches extremely difficult, pushing KD as far away from the block as possible.

The Suns haven’t always done the best job with actually getting him the ball, either due to communication errors, off-target entry passes, or Durant not being able to hold off his defender long enough for the ball to arrive:

“I was trying to so hard to get Kev involved, and sometimes, we can try to force the action rather than just let the game come,” Vogel said. “When we start just opening things up, play spread pick-and-roll, let the blender happen, let the ball start moving around, that’s the best way tonight to get Kev free, because obviously they’re grabbing and holding, and then they’re double-teaming every one of his touches.”

The Suns have to clean up the slop

Over the last 10 games, it’s hard to see the Suns doing a better job with overpassing, miscommunications or even double-teams. They just haven’t had the requisite reps together, and some of those lost-ball turnovers and struggles against blitzes are part of what comes with Booker, Durant and Beal.

But if there is one area the Suns can, and absolutely need to improve, it’s the appalling, unforced, downright sloppy turnovers that have plagued them all season.

To be fair, a lot of the mistakes you’ve seen to this point (especially the miscommunication turnovers) could fit into the “sloppy” category. But in this case, we’re talking about the unapologetically shameful stuff. The “what on earth were they thinking” stuff. The “lazy, cross-court ducks and bullet passes into the third row that are totally within their power to eliminate” stuff:

“We just gotta stay away from the unforced ones,” Vogel said. “Our guys are really looking to extra pass the basketball, which is how we want to play, which is who we want to be. We just gotta do it with more care.”

Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done, since Vogel said something nearly identical back in November. The “downright sloppy” turnovers account for nearly 13 percent of the total when you include these abhorrent outlet passes:

“I think that’s where a lot of our turnovers come from, just ill-advised, not even being pressured,” Beal said. “Just little, simple things that we can definitely take out of the game.”

Even if we exclude those mind-numbingly bad turnovers, however, the Suns often operate like an opponent’s limbs don’t exist. The number of pick-sixes they give up to rotating defenses is concerning, and they have a bad habit of pretending they can just throw the ball through an opponent’s arm in the passing lane:

“We try to make the risky play sometimes,” Durant said. “Cross-court passes, they get their hands on it.”

As the film shows, and as Vogel and the Suns have said themselves, a point guard isn’t cleaning up a lot of these mistakes, especially with how often the ball would be in Durant, Booker and Beal’s hands anyway. There is no successor to the “Point God” coming to save this group from sinful turnovers.

True change will have to come from within, and knocking off even 1-2 of those sloppy passes would help Phoenix lower their average to a more manageable 13 turnovers per game. Considering the Suns are 20-12 when they commit 13 turnovers or fewer, that should be the most immediate goal if this team truly wants to contend.