Coyotes keys: A look at the lottery standings, lottery odds and potential draft picks

There is exactly one month remaining in the NHL’s regular season. The Eastern Conference’s eight playoff teams have been decided for nearly two months while eight teams appear to be battling for the final five spots in the Western Conference.

That’s not the main point of interest in Arizona, however. The NHL Draft Lottery and the subsequent NHL Draft are the next key storylines on the Coyotes’ horizon. Arizona currently owns seven picks in the draft’s top 45 selections. The team hopes that the first of those picks will land them something that the Arizona chapter of the franchise has never witnessed before: a top-two draft pick; preferably No. 1.

With a 6-1 loss in Edmonton on Monday — the team’s sixth straight (0-5-1) — the Coyotes were officially eliminated from playoff contention. Given the team’s stated goal of rebuilding, that was a foregone conclusion before the season began, and certainly after the team started the season 0-10-1.

More importantly, the loss kept the Coyotes in last place in the NHL standings, two points behind the Montréal Canadiens and three points behind the Seattle Kraken, who beat the Kings by the same 6-1 score in Los Angeles on Monday. All three teams have played 66 games, leaving 16 games on the schedule.

With a month left in the Coyotes’ season, here is an updated look at all of the relevant information when it comes to the 2022 draft; a potential watershed moment for the franchise.

NHL standings

Here is a look at the bottom of the NHL standings as of Tuesday morning. The Coyotes have nine home games and seven road games remaining. The Canadiens have eight home games and eight road games remaining. The Kraken have nine home games and seven road games remaining.

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If you want to check the strength of schedule for the Coyotes, Canadiens and Kraken, there are several sites that list them but they vary widely. That’s because there are multiple variables that come into play. None of the sites that I have found take into account all of the following: travel, days rest, streaks, slumps, injuries and goaltenders. Those are all important factors when measuring the difficulty of an opponent.

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Draft Lottery

The specific odds for the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery have not yet been released. They should be released at some point in April, a little before the lottery, which typically occurs during the first round of the playoffs.

Based on the new rules, teams can move up a maximum of 10 spots (which impacts the odds) and no team can win the No. 1 pick more than twice in a five-year span from here on out. Also, the league reduced the number of picks involved in the lottery from three to two. The team with the worst record cannot draft lower than No. 3.

Here is a look at last year’s odds of winning the top overall pick, based on reverse NHL standings. The Coyotes were forced to forfeit their 2021 first-round pick (11th overall) for violating the NHL’s combine testing policy under previous GM John Chayka.

1. Buffalo Sabres – 16.6%
2. Anaheim Ducks – 12.1%
3. Seattle Kraken – 10.3%
4. New Jersey Devils – 10.3%
5. Columbus Blue Jackets – 8.5%
6. Detroit Red Wings – 7.6%
7. San Jose Sharks – 6.7%
8. Los Angeles Kings – 5.8%
9. Vancouver Canucks – 5.4%
10. Ottawa Senators – 4.5%
*11. Arizona Coyotes – 3.1%
12. Chicago Blackhawks – 2.7%
13. Calgary Flames – 2.2%
14. Philadelphia Flyers – 1.8%
15. Dallas Stars – 1.4%
16. New York Rangers – 1.0%

* — forfeited

By now, you are likely aware of tankathon.com’s awesome draft lottery simulator. Now is the time of year to start running those daily (hourly?) simulations to see where the Coyotes might end up. I ran it five times and the Coyotes came up a winner in three of those, never dropping below second. I decided to quit right there.

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Draft picks

In addition to their own 2022 first-round pick, the Coyotes own the Colorado Avalanche’s first-round pick (Darcy Kuemper trade) and the better of the Canadiens’ two first-round picks (Christian Dvorak trade). However, the Canadiens’ pick is top-10 protected and Montréal is clearly going to finish among the 10 worst teams in the NHL standings so the Coyotes will instead get the first-round pick that Montréal acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes as compensation for the Jesperi Kotkaniemi offer sheet.

In addition to the three first-round picks, Arizona also owns four second-round picks: their own, the Flyers’ (Shayne Gostisbehere trade), the Islanders’ (Andrew Ladd trade) and the Sharks (Adin Hill trade).

Based on today’s standings (without the lottery and playoffs factored in, of course), here is where those picks would fall.

First round
No. 1 (Coyotes)
No. 31 (Hurricanes)
No. 32 (Avalanche)
Second round
No. 33 (Coyotes)
No. 38 (Flyers)
No. 43 (Islanders)
No. 44 (Sharks)

If the Coyotes acquire any more picks at this year’s draft (a Jakob Chychrun trade, for instance), I would expect those picks to be pushed out to 2023 or 2024 to keep a steady stream of prospects coming through the system.

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Prospect rankings

Here is a compilation of some top draft experts’ opinions on the top 10 prospects in this year’s draft, as well as links to their fuller lists. Keep in mind that Russian forward Ivan Miroshnichenko was recently diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma and could miss the entire the 2022-23 season. Miroshnichenko is currently receiving treatment in Germany. This will certainly impact his draft stock. It did in the list released by The Athletic’s Corey Pronman on Tuesday.

Sportsnet rankings via Sam Cosentino:
1. Shane Wright, C, Kingston (OHL)
2. Joakim Kemell, LW, JYP (Finnish Liiga)
3. Logan Cooley, C, USNTDP
4. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS Turku (Finnish Liiga):
5. Brad Lambert, C, Lahti (Finnish Liiga): 
6. Matthew Savoie, C, Winnipeg (WHL):
7. Danila Yurov, RW, Magnitogorsk (KHL):
8. David Jiricek, D, HC Plzen (Czech Extraliga): 
9. Ivan Miroshnichenko, LW, Omsk (Russian VHL):
10. Conor Geekie, C, Winnipeg (WHL):

TSN midseason rankings via Bob McKenzie:
1. Shane Wright
2. Logan Cooley
3. Joakim Kemell
4. Matthew Savoie
5. Juraj Slafkovsky
6. Ivan Miroshnichenko
7. David Jiricek
8. Danila Yurov
9. Simon Nemec, D, HK Nitra (Slovak Extraliga)
10. Conor Geekie

TSN rankings via Craig Button:
1. Shane Wright
2. Logan Cooley
3. Joakim Kemell
4. Danila Yurov
5. Simon Nemec
6. David Jiricek
7. Juraj Slafkovsky
8. Matthew Savoie
9. Ivan Miroshnichenko
10. Liam Öhgren, F, Djurgårdens (Sweden, SHL)

Daily Faceoff rankings via Chris Peters:
1. Logan Cooley
2. Shane Wright
3. Ivan Miroshnichenko
4. Joakim Kemell
5. Matthew Savoie
6. David Jiricek
7. Simon Nemec
8. Danila Yurov
9. Frank Nazar, C, USNTDP
10. Juraj Slafkovsky

The Athletic rankings via Corey Pronman:
1. Shane Wright
2. Juraj Slafkovsky
3. Logan Cooley
4. David Jiricek
5. Simon Nemec
6. Joakim Kemell
7. Conor Geekie
8. Matthew Savoie
9. Danila Yurov
10. Jonathan Lekkerimaki, RW, Djurgårdens Jr. (Sweden-Jr.)

NHL Central Scouting rankings:
North American skaters
European players
North American goalies
European goalies

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