D-backs Buy or Sell? Which Way Should they go?

We’re roughly a third of the way through the season, and already the D-backs have had an unbelievable set of ups and downs. From hard-earned road wins generating fun nicknames to star pitchers going down with season-ending injuries, the D-backs have been through a lot this year. Despite it all, Arizona is still hovering around .500 and certainly not out of the running to make the postseason. However, they’re not exactly a threat right now either. Should the D-backs push their chips in and continue this season’s pursuit of a World Series title, or should they sell off some of their pieces and retool for another championship run next year? We’ll make the case for both buying and selling.

Why the D-backs Should Buy

The D-backs have the second most blown leads in the National League with 23 and the second most 9th inning blown leads in baseball this year with three. So why is that a reason the D-backs should buy at the deadline? It’s because it shows Arizona has been putting themselves in positions to win every single night. The problem often comes down to the bullpen’s inability to close things out.

Let’s say you take just of five those blown lead losses and turn them into wins. Not much, right? By hypothetically doing this, the D-backs surpass the Padres and have the same amount of wins as the San Francisco Giants who sit second in both the Wild Card standings and in the NL West. Suddenly you’re feeling much better about your chances of capturing a postseason spot.

Amidst all the struggles, the D-backs can still boast one of the best offenses in baseball. They have the fourth most home runs, third most doubles, the third most RBI, the fourth best OPS+ and the sixth least amount of strikeouts, all hallmarks of a great offense. When you have a team hitting as well as they are, it’s important to buy into other assets on the pitching side which can help the team maintain these leads.

Some names the D-backs could look at to help the bullpen are Pittsburgh’s David Bednar and Washington’s Kyle Finnegan, two guys who seem to be perpetually on the trade block. If they’re feeling exceptionally good about their chances, they could look at Baltimore Orioles closer Felix Bautista who has returned well from Tommy John surgery this year.

The MLB playoffs can be wild and unpredictable, so just getting there is enough to elevate almost any team to a playoff contender. Sure the D-backs ended up losing the 2023 World Series, but not many would have predicted they were going to make it that far when they went on an extended losing stretch following the All-Star break and fell to 57-59 in the middle of August.

Why the D-backs should sell

Simply put, the NL West is an absolute monster of a division. Every team except the historically bad Colorado Rockies are at least .500 and entered the season with championship hopes of their own. The Dodgers will always be a threat with their borderline unfair amount of spending and the Padres typically develop prospects well alongside their stars. Plus the Giants just made a blockbuster trade for megastar Rafael Devers and always seem to be competitive. But even with an expanded playoff system, there’s only so many spots available. Could it be a futile task trying to fight for one of those spots when things are trending the wrong direction?

All year Merrill Kelly has bounced back well from an injury-shortened 2024 season, but he’ll be a free agent at season’s end. Zac Gallen has not quite looked like his usual self on the mound this year and will also be a free agent. Obviously this means the D-backs could lose two of their most valuable pitchers for nothing at the conclusion of this season. The same goes for the offensive side of the ball. Josh Naylor has filled in admirably in Christian Walker’s place this season while Eugenio Suárez continues to mash dingers left and right. Are the D-backs really willing to gamble on losing them in free agency?

By trading those players away, the D-backs could create some extra money to use in free agency as well as acquiring some prospects back in the hypothetical trades. Though they’re unlikely to fetch someone with a top prospect pedigree, sometimes it’s the unheralded guys who can become valuable contributors the same way some top guys fail to pan out once they make the majors. Plus, Suárez being off the team would allow Arizona’s own top prospect Jordan Lawlar to get some consistent at bats, something he’s been unable to come by in his first two stints in the big leagues which may have contributed to his struggles when his name’s been called upon.

Plus, the D-backs have been ravaged by injuries. Just on Friday it was announced catcher Gabriel Moreno has a hairline fracture “just below the knuckle, in the middle of his hand,” according to manager Torey Lovullo, and AJ Puk will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In total, the D-backs have 11 pitchers on the injured list with six of them set to miss the remainder of the season.

Perhaps the D-backs would be better served to cut their losses this season and revamp for next year with a clean slate on the record books.

Get Arizona's Best Sports Content In Your Inbox!Become a smarter Arizona sports fan with the latest game recaps, analysis and exclusive content from PHNX's writers and podcasters!

Just drop your email below!

Email *

Sign Up Now!