D-backs roster Set for Major Changes at Trade Deadline

As our Patrick Brown wrote on Friday morning’s newsletter, the first domino of the D-backs trade deadline has been tipped over. That domino was first baseman Josh Naylor who was sent packing to the Seattle Mariners for minor league pitching prospects Brandyn Garcia and Ashton Izzi. If you want to count Randal Grichuk’s trade as another domino, there’s a second one. There had been plenty of speculation about what could happen to the D-backs at the deadline given they sit just under .500 at 51-56.

If you ask general manager Mike Hazen, there still is some uncertainty about what direction Arizona is heading. But if the D-backs are sending off one of their better hitters, it seems to indicate a sell off is more likely than buying and making a playoff push for a team 12 games out of first place and 7.5 games out of the Wild Card race. While there’s plenty of options on the trade block for the D-backs, it’s unlikely all of them end up traded. It would simply be a crazy amount of transactions to go through. So what are the cases for keeping or selling off the players most likely on the block?

Eugenio Suárez

The Case to Keep: Suárez has inarguably been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last year or so. The third baseman is hitting .276 with 167 hits, 55 homers, 32 doubles, 137 RBIs and 114 runs scored in his last 162 games, the length of a full season. If the D-backs have any hope of making a second half run to a postseason spot, it involves keeping Suárez who leads the team in bWAR, home runs, RBI and is second in runs scored. He’s durable too, having played in at least 143 games every full season since 2016. As a 34-year-old entering free agency, the return for Suárez might not match his true value either

The Case to Sell: The Yankees just acquired a third baseman, Ryan McMahon, from the Rockies but that doesn’t mean other teams aren’t interested in trading for Arizona’s slugger. At this point, it could be too lucrative to not trade Suárez. There are multiple teams in need of someone at the hot corner, including the Cubs, Tigers, Brewers and aforementioned Mariners.

Plus, there’s a logjam on Arizona’s infield depth chart. The current number-11 ranked prospect in all of baseball, Jordan Lawlar, is being blocked at all the infield spots, and while Lawlar hasn’t proven much at the big league level, he hasn’t been given consistent at bats to do so, either. Sending Suárez away would open up playing time for the 23-year-old.

Zac Gallen

The Case to Keep: Gallen has been a Diamondback for all but seven games of his major league career, making him essentially a D-backs lifer, at least to this point. But as great as he’s been, Gallen’s most recent season might be the worst one he’s had so far. He lays claim to a 5.58 ERA and leads the National League in home runs allowed with 23 and has the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career at 2.52. Basically what I’m getting at here is that he might not have the value at the moment to make it worth sending him out, especially if there’s no plans to re-sign him once the offseason comes.

And even if he’s having one of the worst seasons of his career, that top of the rotation pitcher is still somewhere in there. Again, if the D-backs are to make an unlikely postseason push, Gallen would have to be one of the players on the roster to step their game up.

The Case to Sell: No sense in keeping around a player who’s not performing, right? Hazen said he won’t be making trades to save money but it wouldn’t hurt the club to save money while getting some prospect capital in return. On top of that, the D-backs have some pitching talent in the minors and acquired via the Naylor and Grichuk trades who could potentially start. While Hazen said he sees Brandyn Garcia as a reliever, he’s primarily started during his time in the minors. Similarly, Andrew Hoffmann who was acquired in the Grichuk trade had been a starter in the minors up until this season.

Merrill Kelly

The Case to Keep: With the multitude of pitching injuries suffered by the D-backs this season, it might behoove the team to hold on to the healthy arms they have left just so they can complete the season with major league talent pitching at the highest level. While it’s entirely possible both Gallen and Kelly get traded to new teams at the deadline, if I were the one making decisions, only one of them would get traded at the most. To me, it just doesn’t make much sense to send even more pitching depth away.

Plus, Kelly has been a picture of health the majority of his career, leading the majors in 2022 and this season as well. Sure he missed time last year and with the luck this season his health could run out at any second, but it would be wise to ride with someone who’s proven they can stay healthy the majority of the time when there’s been so much poor injury luck surrounding the arms on the team.

The Case to Sell: Of the two pitchers on the trade block, Kelly has been the one having the much better year. Therefore it would make sense he could earn the best return in a trade. Even if he’s regarded as an inferior pitcher talent-wise to Gallen, teams will need to take a look at the numbers which show Kelly has flat out been better this year. Kelly bests Gallen in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, walks allowed, hits allowed and innings pitched all while having teh same amount of strikeouts. With both on expiring contracts, they should be seen relatively equally as far as future value goes on a respective team’s roster