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The calendar has turned to February. Pitchers and catchers report in less than 10 days. Baseball is almost back.
Since joining PHNX Sports, I have conducted an annual survey of Diamondbacks fans on Twitter before the start of each season. Over the past two years, the survey consisted of one simple question: What needs to happen this year for the Diamondbacks to meet your expectations? I would then write a story about common themes, highlighting unique responses along the way.
This year, I decided to try something new. I still asked about expectations for the 2024 season, but the question was accompanied by a hodgepodge of others as part of a Google Form survey.
If you were one of the roughly 800 people who took the time to chime in, thank you. If you weren’t, I’d love to add to that number next year.
Without further ado, here is what D-backs fans had to say about their favorite players on the team, their predictions for the 2024 season and much more.
1. How many games will the Diamondbacks win in 2024?
Unsurprisingly, D-backs fans are feeling optimistic following the team’s 2023 World Series run.
There are a few ways to frame the results for this question.
One is to point out that 92.1 percent of you said that the Diamondbacks will win more regular season games in 2024 than they did last year. (Recall that the team had 84 wins in 2023.)
Another way of looking at this is that nearly half (46 percent) of you believe that the team will reach 90 wins in 2024. The Diamondbacks have done that just three times over the past 20 seasons. It last happened seven years ago in 2017.
While there are valid reasons to be optimistic heading into 2024 — the current roster is clearly better than it was a year ago — Fangraphs projects this year’s club for a modest 84 wins.
Obviously, projections should not be taken as gospel, particularly with the offseason not yet complete.
2. who is your favorite D-backs player?
Surprise, surprise. You people like Corbin Carroll.
I suppose a 23-year-old who won NL Rookie of the Year and finished top five in MVP voting in his first full season is pretty marketable. Carroll got 37.7 percent of the vote; not quite a majority, but nearly three times that of any other player.
In second place is another up-and-comer in catcher Gabriel Moreno. Moreno, 23, looked like a star in the second half of the year, and hit several dramatic homers in the playoffs.
After the top five listed on the graphic above, the next five vote getters were Christian Walker (4.4 percent), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3.4 percent), Kevin Ginkel (2.9 percent), Merrill Kelly (2.4 percent) and Geraldo Perdomo (2.3 percent).
Also receiving multiple votes: Jake McCarthy, Brandon Pfaadt, Joe Mantiply, Paul Sewald, Tommy Henry, Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Pavin Smith.
3. How would you grade the D-backs’ offseason?
Before we get into the results on this one, it should be noted that this survey was circulated prior to the D-backs’ signing of Joc Pederson and their trade that sent Dominic Fletcher to the Chicago White Sox. Had this question been asked after those moves, maybe the results would be different.
Nonetheless, it is clear that fans have a favorable view of general manager Mike Hazen’s work this winter, which includes the additions of starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, third baseman Eugenio Suárez, the aforementioned Pederson and the re-signing of outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. More than 95 percent of respondents gave Hazen either an A or a B; neither D nor F was selected even once.
In (very) unscientific fashion, I did re-ask this question on Twitter to get a sense of how fans felt after the Pederson signing. It turns out, their opinion of the offseason got…worse?
Twitter (now X) is a fairly negative place in general, so maybe it shouldn’t be surprising that there were fewer votes for A or B and more for C. Maybe the results are also indicative of the fact that some fans preferred other designated hitter targets over Pederson. Nonetheless, among a (very different) sample of nearly 2,000 voters, still more than 85 percent gave Hazen and company an A or B.
While we’re here, we might as well look at the results of a question that is no longer relevant, but remains interesting. Prior to the Pederson signing, I asked D-backs fans which free-agent hitter they wanted most.
It probably comes as no shock that J.D. Martinez get well over half the vote, with Jorge Soler coming in an easy second:
Pederson was on the ballot. He received 2.1 percent of the vote.
4. How do you feel about the job Torey Lovullo has done in seven years as Diamondbacks manager?
Following a pennant win, approval ratings for Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo are sky high. Nearly 90 percent of you said that you either approve or strongly approve of Lovullo’s managerial tenure.
Lovullo’s tenure, of course, includes some years in which the D-backs fell short of expectations, such as 2020 and 2021. He probably would not have done so well in polls in those years. Nonetheless, the D-backs stood by him, and it just paid off with the most remarkable postseason run in franchise history. Now, Lovullo is soaring in popularity.
Last year at this time, Lovullo was entering his third consecutive season as a lame-duck manager. When the club signed him to a one-year extension in June, it looked as if 2024 would be a fourth straight year in that situation.
That is now no longer the case. In November, the Diamondbacks extended Lovullo through 2026. He is already the longest tenured and winningest manager in franchise history, and it looks like he’ll have plenty of time to create distance between himself and the rest of the pack in the years to come.
5. How do you feel about the job Mike Hazen has done in seven years as Diamondbacks general manager?
For as positive as Lovullo’s poll results were, Hazen’s came in even more so. For Hazen, 93.6 percent of respondents said they either approve or strongly approve of his work in Arizona compared to 87.4 percent for Lovullo. Like Lovullo, Hazen also signed an extension last year. Hazen’s deal is longer, extending through 2028.
As is the case for every GM, not all of Hazen’s moves have panned out. In 2018, he traded Paul Goldschmidt for what now looks like an unremarkable return. A year later, he signed starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner to a five-year deal; Bumgarner was designated for assignment in 2023 with around $35 million left on his contract.
Nonetheless, Hazen’s impact on the franchise has clearly been positive, as evidenced by the team’s World Series run last year. Some of his moves have paid huge dividends, such as signing Merrill Kelly out of Korea prior to the 2019 season, trading for Zac Gallen in 2019 and extending Ketel Marte before his first breakout season. Like managers, opinions of MLB GM’s tend to fluctuate, but Hazen is one of the most respected in the industry.
6. Which player do you want the D-backs to extend most?
It comes as no surprise that Zac Gallen, who is under contract for two more seasons, was the top choice here. Moreno took a fairly big chunk of the vote, however, at 26.8 percent, with Christian Walker (controllable through 2024) and Merrill Kelly (controllable through 2025) also garnering attention.
Moreno’s case, of course, is very different from the rest. He is under club control for five more seasons. He is not going anywhere any time soon.
Of course, neither was Corbin Carroll around this time last year. But that didn’t stop the D-backs from signing him to an eight-year, $111 million extension prior to the start of the season.
The deal turned five years of club control into eight, with an additional club option for a ninth year. Perhaps the Diamondbacks could land a similar arrangement with Moreno, who figures to be a cornerstone player for years to come.
As for Gallen, it is hardly surprising that fans are hoping for an extension. Since being acquired in a trade with the Miami Marlins, Gallen has gone 38-28 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .217 opponent average in 108 starts. Last month, MLB Network ranked Gallen as the third-best starter in baseball.
Of course, a Gallen extension would not come without risk. The price tag could exceed $200 million and the deal could stretch into Gallen’s upper 30s.
Last month at the Diamondbacks’ Celebrity Golf Classic, Gallen expressed interest in staying in Arizona for the long haul.
7. Where do you want the D-backs to play long term?
More than 80 percent of respondents favored staying at Chase Field over building a new stadium, which I found surprising.
With a new stadium, the D-backs could create a more intimate setting with fewer seats, more attractions in and around the stadium and less of an airplane-hangar-like feel than Chase Field. Renovating Chase Field, while impactful, could seemingly only go so far.
Either way, it appears that fans hoping to stay at Chase Field will likely get their wish. Diamondbacks managing general partner Ken Kendrick said in December that staying at Chase Field is the most likely outcome. He was not ready to rule out the possibility of building a new ballpark in the Phoenix metropolitan area, however. (Kendrick did say that moving out of state was “not going to happen.” Hence, that was not an option in this poll.)
Based on these poll results, fans seem to have formed a bond with the D-backs’ original home over the 26 years of the franchise’s existence. I still find it hard to believe that folks would be up in arms if the team opted to build a new stadium, but it could only be reassuring for team officials to know that many fans are content with the location and structure of the ballpark they already have.
8. How confident are you in the D-backs’ overall direction?
Maybe this was a dumb question? The Diamondbacks are a relatively young team with upside, and they just went to the World Series. I would’ve been surprised if anyone felt they were heading in the wrong direction.
Sure enough, more than 99 percent of respondents said that they are either somewhat confident or very confident in the team’s direction.
9. Will the D-backs win the World Series in the next 10 years?
This was an outrageous question that led to a fun conclusion: More than four out of every five of you believe that the Diamondbacks will win the World Series in the next decade.
Ten years is a long time, to be sure. But that is still bullish. Statistically, in a 30-team league, there is a one-third chance of a random team winning the World Series in a ten-year span.
The Diamondbacks, of course, are no random team. They were three wins away from winning the World Series just three months ago. With the team looking better now than it was then, it is understandable why fans are feeling bold about the next 10 years.
Still, it should not be underestimated how difficult it is to get to a World Series in the first place. The Diamondbacks needed a lot of things to go their way to get there, and many teams believed to be more talented did not make it as far as they did.
History tells us that, in the MLB postseason, anything can happen. Theoretically, the Diamondbacks could win 90-plus games for each of the next five seasons and never even make a World Series in that span. Or, they could win 84 games again in 2024 and win it all.
Anything is possible. But, with a 12-team postseason field, the odds are always stacked against you.
10. What has to happen in 2024 for the Diamondbacks to meet your expectations?
This was the lone free response question in the survey, so I don’t have a neat stat graphic to show. Here were some of the common themes.
Make the playoffs
There was a clear consensus that the club needs to at least make the postseason in 2024.
Many folks were not satisfied with a playoff berth, however. Winning at least one playoff series was a popular addendum, as was the general notion of a “deep run” in the playoffs. Some went even further.
“Win the whole damn thing,” wrote one respondent.
Several others shared that World-Series-or-bust mindset.
Development of youngsters
A plurality of you pointed to growth from the D-backs’ young core as a primary concern for 2024.
Jordan Lawlar, Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Brandon Pfaadt were some of the more common names mentioned in that context.
The Dodgers
Suffice it to say that Diamondbacks fans have caught wind of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ $1 billion-plus spending spree this offseason.
Some folks simply expect the Diamondbacks to hold their own against the Dodgers, perhaps play above-.500 ball against them in the regular season. “Compete with the L.A. Deferred’s,” wrote one respondent.
Others went much further.
“Send the Dodgers to hell in the playoffs,” said another participant. “I mean, home.”
Another: “Beat the Dodgers again please God.”
Surely, defeating the Dodgers in the playoffs for a second straight year would be an impressive accomplishment. Given how many pieces the Dodgers have added this winter, any team that manages to bounce them from the postseason would get plenty of attention.
Against all odds, the Diamondbacks did it in 2023. Maybe they could do it again.
Top photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic
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