Diamondbacks roster projection 2.0: Early Cactus League edition

Since our first attempt at projecting the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster, the team has signed veteran slugger Joc Pederson and lefty-mashing outfielder Randal Grichuk as free agents, and played a week or so of spring training games.

Those events are not exactly seismic, but they are enough to cause a few changes and give clarity on several key topics. We do not necessarily know more about which specific players will make the club, but we do have a better idea of how the team is viewing its various spring competitions.

Without further ado, here is a second attempt at projecting the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster for 2024.

(Note: Any changes from our previous roster projection are denoted in italics.)

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Starting pitchers (5)

Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Tommy Henry

Other candidates on 40-man roster: Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Blake Walston, Bryce Jarvis, Cristian Mena

The top four spots in the Diamondbacks’ rotation are effectively set in stone. They will go to Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt.

Tommy Henry entered spring training as the presumptive frontrunner for the fifth spot based on his performance last year, and he certainly hasn’t done anything to lower his status so far.

In two Cactus League starts, Henry has logged five scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and one walk with four strikeouts. He has needed only 51 pitches for those five frames. As long as Henry is pitching well, it is hard to see anyone else overtaking him.

Nonetheless, Ryne Nelson has certainly made his presence known. With a revamped slider, the 26-year-old has tossed five innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts over two starts. Nelson has generated 18 whiffs in those two games. For reference, he has never generated more than 14 whiffs in a regular season start.

Slade Cecconi is also in the mix for that fifth starter spot. He looked good in his first spring training outing, but struggled on Friday against the Cincinnati Reds. Blake Walston and Bryce Jarvis are being stretched out as well. It seems likely, however, that the spot will come down to Henry or Nelson.

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Relievers (8)

Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, Miguel Castro, Scott McGough, Luis Frías, Joe Mantiply, Andrew Saalfrank

Other candidates on 40-man roster: Kyle Nelson, Corbin Martin, Justin Martinez, Peter Strzelecki

This is the same bullpen that was presented in our previous roster projection, but a few things are worth mentioning.

First, picking from the Diamondbacks’ crop of left-handed reliever options remains difficult. It seems likely that veteran Joe Mantiply will make the team, but it is hard to say who has the edge between Andrew Saalfrank and Kyle Nelson, both of whom were on the 2023 World Series roster. Perhaps the Diamondbacks would be alright with three lefties in their Opening Day bullpen.

On the topic of lefty relievers, it should also be noted that Kyle Backhus, a 26-year-old who reached Triple-A last year, is off to a strong start this spring. He has struck out six of the nine batters he has faced.

Second, Luis Frías received an extra minor-league option for 2024. That means that Frías can still be sent to Triple-A Reno without the risk of losing him to another organization. Of course, that does not guarantee that Frías will start the year in Reno. He has pitched well in his first three Cactus League games, and he is still included in this Opening Day roster projection.

Finally, it is worth noting that the group of eight relievers presented above lacks a clear long man. Of course, there is still time for the team to stretch one of those guys out. However, manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday that the team has had discussions about rostering one of the fifth starter candidates as a long reliever, much like it did with Drey Jameson last year. Thus, even if Henry nabs the final rotation spot, a major-league bullpen role could still be on the table for Nelson or Cecconi, among others.

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Catchers (2)

Gabriel Moreno, Tucker Barnhart

Other candidates on 40-man roster: Jose Herrera

What is manager Torey Lovullo looking for in a backup catcher?

“Consistency with receiving the baseball,” Lovullo said Thursday, “blocking the baseball, following a game plan, stepping in there for the 40-plus games that you’re probably going to start and not have the team take a step backwards.”

It is too early to have a good feel for how Tucker Barnhart and Jose Herrera compare in those areas, but Lovullo seems to be happy with what he has seen from them so far.

In this roster projection, we are sticking with Barnhart as the backup. So far in the Cactus League, he has gone 3-for-6 with two singles, a double and a walk.

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Infielders (6)

Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Eugenio Suárez, Jace Peterson, Emmanuel Rivera

Other candidates on 40-man roster: Blaze Alexander, Jordan Lawlar, Pavin Smith

Lovullo made it clear early in camp that Geraldo Perdomo will be the Diamondbacks’ everyday shortstop. The million-dollar question is who will back him up.

The most obvious answer is seemingly top prospect Jordan Lawlar, who served as Perdomo’s backup toward the end of last year. The D-backs would like him to play every day, however, and that opportunity does not exist in the majors. It seems likely that Lawlar will open the year in Triple-A.

Lovullo has said that both Emmanuel Rivera and Jace Peterson will get a look at shortstop this spring. The jury is still out on how that is going, but there are few questions about Rivera’s ability to play the corners and Peterson’s ability to play both second and third. It seems possible that, between the two of them and the other infielders on the roster, the D-backs could conjure up a good-enough backup shortstop situation.

It should also be noted that Rivera is out of minor-league options. Leaving him off the Opening Day roster would likely mean losing him to another organization, a scenario that the Diamondbacks might want to avoid.

Other backup shortstop candidates include prospect Blaze Alexander and non-roster invitees Kevin Newman and Elvis Andrus. On paper, the case for Alexander is strong. He is probably the best defensive shortstop of any of the potential backups, and he is also a whopping 7-for-15 with three extra-base hits so far in the Cactus League.

The biggest question with Alexander is whether the Diamondbacks would be willing to use him in a part-time role; they do not seem to be with Lawlar. For now, we’ll leave Alexander off our Opening Day roster projection, but he is someone to watch moving forward.

Newman has gotten off to a slow start in spring training, but he has significant major-league experience at shortstop and slashed .278/.349/.464 against lefties last year with the Cincinnati Reds.

The most recent addendum to the list — and also a fairly intriguing one — is veteran infielder Elvis Andrus, whom the Diamondbacks signed to a minor league deal with an invite to big-league camp on Sunday.

In 2023, the 35-year-old played mostly shortstop and second base for the White Sox, and slashed .251/.304/.358 with six homers and 44 RBI. We’ll leave him off the projected Opening Day roster at least until he has played in some games, but, on paper, Andrus looks like a formidable backup shortstop candidate.

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Outfielders (5)

Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alek Thomas, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk

Other candidates on 40-man roster: Jake McCarthy, Jorge Barrosa

All five outfielders listed are locks to make the team, with the caveat that recently signed slugger Randal Grichuk is recovering from an ankle procedure that he had in January. As of now, Grichuk is still expected to be ready for Opening Day, although he might be limited to designated hitter duty upfront.

With the additions of Grichuk and Joc Pederson, Jake McCarthy’s path to make the team is murky at best. Lovullo said early in camp that rostering six outfielders had been discussed internally, but doing so would leave room for only one backup infielder. It does not seem like an optimal path.

After a season of being shuttled back and forth from Reno, McCarthy might have a hard time securing major-league at-bats once again in 2024. Of course, having quality depth is a good thing, and injuries are inevitable over the course of a 162-game season. McCarthy will have a part to play in the majors at some point, even if he does not on Day 1.

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Top photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic