Did Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson save rotation spot with dominant outing against Phillies?

With his starting rotation spot seemingly on the line, Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson pitched perhaps the best game of his life on Friday.

In 7 1/3 innings against a stellar Philadelphia Phillies lineup, Nelson allowed just two runs on three hits. He walked one and tied his career high with nine strikeouts.

“He was in total command of the game,” Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said.

Nelson has been a strike-thrower since his big-league debut in September of 2022, but he took that to another level on Friday. He threw first-pitch strikes to each of the first 17 batters that he faced. He did not allow a baserunner until the fifth inning. It took until the sixth inning for a Phillies hitter to see a hitter-advantaged count.

Friday’s dominant outing was not a one-off for Nelson. Since July 1, he has a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. In that span, he has averaged more than six innings per start. His ERA has plummeted from 5.69 to 4.51.

With right-hander Merrill Kelly expected to return from the injured list on Sunday, the Diamondbacks have a decision looming over how they will proceed in the rotation. Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are locks to stay put, leaving Nelson and veteran left-hander Jordan Montgomery as the pitchers in question.

Ryne Nelson on the impending starting rotation decision with Merrill Kelly expected to return soon:

"I try to flush that and just go out there and compete and do everything I can to make their decision as hard as it can be." pic.twitter.com/GSt9UfnwHj

— Jesse Friedman (@JesseNFriedman) August 10, 2024

Numbers wise, there is no question that Nelson has out-pitched Montgomery. After signing a last-minute contract before the season began, Montgomery has been among the worst pitchers in baseball. In 17 starts, he has a 6.37 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and .316 opponent batting average.

Montgomery has looked better recently — he came within one out of tossing six scoreless innings against the Phillies on Thursday — but he has also been inconsistent. Since returning from a knee injury on July 23, Montgomery has a 6.11 ERA in four starts. Opposing hitters have an .859 OPS against him in that span.

Prior to Friday’s game, Lovullo told reporters that he had ruled out the possibility of a six-man rotation after Kelly’s return, implying that one of his starters — possibly Nelson — would lose his rotation spot. It is unclear how Nelson’s gem affected the team’s calculus, but Lovullo sounded like he was back to the drawing board after Friday’s game.

“I don’t know,” Lovullo said. “I don’t know what we’re thinking. We had the conversation. It ended. And we’re gonna reload that conversation.”

Torey Lovullo on Ryne Nelson's outing tonight with a starting rotation decision looming:

"I don't know what we're thinking. We had the conversation. It ended. And we're gonna reload that conversation." pic.twitter.com/q3wVXqZkc1

— PHNX Diamondbacks (@PHNX_Dbacks) August 10, 2024

Lovullo did not offer any more clarity on Nelson’s role in his pregame presser on Saturday, but he did say that optioning Nelson to Triple-A Reno was never a consideration. Whatever role Nelson has moving forward, it is going to be in the majors.

While Nelson’s numbers are better than Montgomery’s at this stage of the season, the decision is not that simple.

First, Montgomery cannot be optioned to Triple-A without his permission. That is likely a nonstarter.

Montgomery also has a player option for 2025 that has already vested for $20 million; given how his season has gone so far, it seems likely that he will exercise it. The option could escalate to $25 million depending on how many starts he makes the rest of the season. If the Diamondbacks were to move on from Montgomery altogether, they would not only have to eat the roughly $7 million that he is owed the rest of the season, but the $20-plus million that he could be owed next year.

Of course, eating that money could make sense if the Diamondbacks felt that Montgomery would not make their rotation next year anyway. But that is hardly an obvious conclusion.

While Montgomery might be past his prime at age 31 and his 2024 season has been by far his worst ever, the fact that he missed spring training altogether should not be overlooked. With a full spring and normal offseason next year, it does not seem all that far-fetched that Montgomery could bounce back and return to form as one of the better starters in baseball. The Diamondbacks are probably going to want to find out.

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Therefore, with both Montgomery and Nelson likely staying in the majors for the time being, there are only two other options here: Move Nelson to the bullpen and keep Montgomery in the rotation, or move Montgomery to the bullpen and keep Nelson in the rotation.

On paper, the former option seem more likely. While Nelson has worked almost exclusively as a starter in his professional career, he worked as a high-leverage reliever for almost his entire collegiate career at the University of Oregon.

Nelson also has the kind of arsenal that could play up in the bullpen. He touched 99 mph on Friday in a game in which he threw 97 pitches. How hard could he throw as a reliever? How effective could he be if he did not have to worry about facing hitters a second or third time through?

When asked Friday about the possibility of moving to the bullpen, Nelson was open to the idea.

“Whatever I can do to help the team win,” he said. “Obviously, I would love to stay in the rotation, but it’s out of my hands.”

Ryne Nelson's 3Ks in the 5th. pic.twitter.com/8q3s24UQk0

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2024

Montgomery has almost never pitched out of the bullpen. Combining his collegiate (at the University of South Carolina) and professional career, he has pitched in 268 games. Only four of them came out of the bullpen.

It is also unclear how much Montgomery’s effectiveness would benefit from a move to the bullpen. He has a 5.82 ERA in the first inning this year. His most-used pitch, a sinker, has averaged 91.6 mph. He likely would not be a hard-thrower in a bullpen role, either.

The Diamondbacks have some time to make their decision. Montgomery’s rotation spot comes up next on Wednesday against the Colorado Rockies. Nelson’s next start would line up for Friday on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Whatever the team decides, the fact that this decision is tough to begin with is a testament not only to Montgomery’s unexpected struggles, but an impressive run for one of the team’s young starters.

Nelson was asked on Friday if he felt he had established himself as a big-league starter over this recent stretch.

“That’s what I’m trying to do,” he said. “I think just trying to go out there every day and give this team a chance to win.

“Whatever happens, happens.”

Top photo: Rick Scuteri/USA TODAY Sports

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