Diamondbacks takeaways: Positives, negatives, oddities after 2 weeks

Two weeks ago, the Diamondbacks began their 2024 season with much pomp and circumstance after the team’s surprising World Series run last year.

Surely, their 6-7 start cannot be considered a success. But it also would not seem fair to call it a failure, given the volume of injuries the team has had to deal with in the early going.

After getting swept by the Atlanta Braves over the weekend in a trio of closely contested games, the Diamondbacks got back on track by taking two out of three from the Colorado Rockies. Now, they return home for a three-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals, followed by another home series against the Chicago Cubs.

It’s going to take a lot more than two weeks for the ink to dry on the true identity of the 2024 Diamondbacks, but that does not mean we have learned nothing about this team so far.

Here are some early takeaways.

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First-inning assassins

In spite of the Diamondbacks’ modest 6-7 start, they have absolutely obliterated opponents in the first inning.

Through 13 games, the Diamondbacks have scored 24 first-inning runs, an average of 1.8 runs per game. Their .465/.513/.873 team slash line in the opening frame is bonkers.

Of course, a 1.386 OPS in the first inning is not sustainable. It is telling, though, that the team’s expected slash line, according to Statcast, is a blistering .394/.445/.699 in the opening frame — way better than that of any other team. By no means has this been a complete fluke.

D-backs starting pitchers, meanwhile, have also excelled in the first inning. They have allowed just four combined runs in 13 innings, good for a 2.77 ERA.

As far as the offense is concerned, the narrative has flipped later in games. The Diamondbacks have scored just nine runs this season in innings 7-9, three of which came in Wednesday’s 5-3 win over the Rockies. Their team slash line in those final three frames is .136/.285/.220.

It seems possible that this is just an early-season anomaly and these numbers will even out over time. We will find out in the coming months.

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problems at shortstop

The Diamondbacks have been decimated by injuries early in the season, with starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, closer Paul Sewald and center fielder Alek Thomas all on the injured list, but there is a strong case to be made that they have felt shortstop Geraldo Perdomo’s absence more than anyone else.

Perdomo had surgery earlier this week to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, an injury that he suffered while running the bases in the series finale against the New York Yankees. Perdomo is reportedly expected to miss at least a month.

In his absence, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo has given four of six starts at shortstop to rookie Blaze Alexander, but Alexander has struggled mightily on defense.

In just 35 innings at the position, Alexander has logged a league-worst –5 outs above average. It is not unreasonable to wonder if Lovullo could pivot away from him soon.

Lovullo’s other shortstop options do not look great on paper, however. Recent call-up Kevin Newman has received one start at the position, but defensive metrics have not been keen on his work at shortstop over the years. Veteran Jace Peterson has also made a start at the position after getting reps there in spring training, but, at age 33, Peterson has played all of 59 1/3 innings in his career at shortstop.

As of now, there is no clear solution to the Diamondbacks’ shortstop woes, and how they fill that gap until Perdomo returns is one of the biggest storylines to follow in the coming weeks.

For what it’s worth, the Diamondbacks did sign veteran infielder Kolten Wong to a minor-league deal on Wednesday. Wong has never started a major-league game at shortstop in his career, so he is probably not an option there. But he does give added depth at second base, something the team seemed to be lacking.

Wong, 33, split time with the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers last season. After struggling to the tune of a .165/.241/.227 slash line for Seattle, Wong signed with the Dodgers and managed to hit .300/.353/.500, albeit in a limited sample of 34 plate appearances.

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another troublesome bullpen?

At first glance, the 2024 Diamondbacks bullpen has not been bad at all. The group has a combined 3.56 ERA, which ranks 11th in baseball, and a 1.17 WHIP, which ranks eighth. Both represent improvements over last year’s bullpen ERA and WHIP of 4.22 and 1.30, respectively.

So, why the entry about a troublesome bullpen?

There is a big difference between holding big leads and shutting the door in close games, and the Diamondbacks have excelled at the former but struggled at the latter. The latter, of course, has a lot more impact on winning and losing.

According to Fangraphs, opposing hitters have slashed .433/.471/.633 in high-leverage situations against Diamondbacks relievers. They also have struck out just 14.7 percent of the time, a sizable dip from other situations.

Here is a full breakdown of how the Diamondbacks bullpen has performed based on leverage:

Leverage	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
Low	30	2.10	0.97	22.1	7.1
Medium	12	3.75	0.92	22.9	6.3
High	6	10.50	2.67	14.7	8.8

Looking at these numbers, it comes as no shock that the Diamondbacks had leads of three runs or more in three of the games in their recent five-game losing streak.

Of course, it is still early. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen finished the Rockies series well, amassing seven combined scoreless innings in important situations to seal a one-run win on Tuesday and a two-run win on Wednesday.

Nonetheless, the loss of Sewald coupled with the fact that the team did not make any significant bullpen additions this offseason has seemingly left Lovullo with few reliable weapons in close games. It is something to watch in the comings months, particularly while Sewald is out.

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a very good rotation … soon

The Diamondbacks’ starting rotation hasn’t been anything special to open the year. In 68 innings of work, D-backs starters have posted a 4.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, both of which rank 16th in baseball.

However, it is important to note that Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry are soon expected to be replaced by left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Nelson and Henry have a combined 6.65 ERA so far this season. Montgomery and Rodriguez combined for a 3.24 ERA in 2023.

After signing a last-minute contract with the Diamondbacks shortly before the season, Montgomery told reporters in his introductory presser that he is targeting April 19 for his Diamondbacks debut. Montgomery made a rehab start for Triple-A Reno on Sunday, and he figures to get one more start for Reno before coming to the majors.

Rodriguez, meanwhile, seems to be progressing well in his return from a lat injury, which he suffered a little over a week before the season began. His timeline is less clear, but it appears that he might not be too far behind Montgomery.

When Montgomery and Rodriguez are ready to go, they are expected to join a rotation that includes Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt.

Gallen and Kelly have picked up where they left off last year as one of the better 1-2 combos in baseball, with a combined 2.27 ERA after three starts each.

Pfaadt, meanwhile, has shown signs of building off his strong second half and excellent postseason run last year. His 5.06 ERA does not jump off the page, but Pfaadt set a career high with 20 swings-and-misses in his last start against the Atlanta Braves. He also has gotten opposing hitters to swing at 39 percent of his pitches out of the zone, which ranks in the 94th percentile. That 39 percent chase rate is even higher than the stellar 34.2 percent mark he posted in the playoffs last year.

On paper, if and when Montgomery and Rodriguez join forces with Gallen, Kelly and Pfaadt, the Diamondbacks’ rotation could go from roughly average to one of the best overnight.

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Bat on ball

It probably should not come as a surprise that Diamondbacks hitters have excelled at putting the ball in play in the early going; they were pretty good in that regard last year, too. So far, however, they have taken that to a new level.

In 2024, the Diamondbacks have both the lowest strikeout rate in the league at 17 percent and the lowest whiff rate at 20.2 percent. (That 20.2 percent whiff rate means that 20.2 percent of Diamondbacks swings have resulted in misses.) Last year, the Diamondbacks had strikeout and whiff rates of 20.4 percent and 22.6 percent, respectively. For reference, the league average strikeout rate this year is 22.6 percent, and the league average whiff rate is 25.6 percent.

Notably, Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno, who have struggled to open the year, have remarkably low whiff rates of just 9.5 percent and 14.8 percent, respectively, both of which are significantly lower than they were last year.

Carroll and Moreno had strong series in Colorado. Perhaps their early-season slumps are coming to an end.

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Top photo: Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports