It has been just over a month since the Diamondbacks watched helplessly on TV as their postseason hopes withered away.
The sting of no October baseball has, perhaps, begun to wore off. The Los Angeles parade that took place over the weekend probably did not help.
Regardless, the hot stove season has arrived. As of Monday afternoon at 3 p.m., MLB free agents can sign with all 30 teams.
Several Diamondbacks players had options for 2025, all of which were resolved in recent days.
According to reports, the Diamondbacks exercised club options on third baseman Eugenio Suárez ($15 million) and right-hander Merrill Kelly ($7 million). Left-hander Jordan Montgomery picked up his $22.5 million player option.
DH Joc Pederson and OF/DH Randal Grichuk declined their mutual options of $14 million and $6 million, respectively. The Diamondbacks declined their $4 million mutual option on right-handed reliever Scott McGough. All of those decisions went as expected.
That leaves the Diamondbacks with seven free agents this winter: Walker, Grichuk, Pederson, McGough, RHP Paul Sewald, UTIL Kevin Newman and 1B Josh Bell.
The club is expected to give Walker a one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer. He will almost certainly reject it and look for a multi-year deal in free agency.
Surely, not all of the Diamondbacks’ free agents will return next year. But as the bidding wars commence, here’s a look at why they should — and shouldn’t — retain each of the seven.
Christian Walker, 1B
In favor: The case to retain Walker is perhaps as strong as anyone on this list. Since 2022, he is one of only 10 major league hitters with 95 or more homers and an OPS over .800. He just won his third consecutive Gold Glove, and is arguably the best defensive first baseman in baseball.
If the Diamondbacks do not re-sign Walker, their first base production is all but certain to take a hit. It’s basically impossible to replace a 120 OPS+ and elite defense at first base, and that is precisely what Walker provided the past three years.
Against: Letting Walker go might seem risky, but retaining him carries risk, too. Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently pegged Walker for a three-year, $72 million contract. That’s a hefty commitment for a player entering his age-34 season.
While replicating Walker’s production would be difficult, the Diamondbacks might be able to approximate it at a lower cost.
Free agent veterans Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt could probably be had on one-year deals. The trade market figures to have some noteworthy options, such as the Cleveland Guardians’ Josh Naylor and the Texas Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe. Any of these alternatives would cost less financially than re-signing Walker, allowing the club to allocate more resources to other needs.
It’s also worth noting that Diamondbacks 1B/OF Pavin Smith had an .895 OPS in 158 major-league plate appearances in 2024. He probably deserves a more extended look in 2025, particularly against right-handed pitching.
Paul Sewald, RHP
In favor: Despite Sewald’s unsightly 4.31 ERA in 2024, he actually had a higher strikeout rate (26.1 percent), lower walk rate (6.1 percent) and lower opponent OPS (.728) than he did in 2023 after the Diamondbacks acquired him at the trade deadline.
Yes, Sewald fell off dramatically as the season went on — he had a 10.60 ERA in July after posting a 0.54 ERA in his first 18 appearances — but his velocity and movement numbers held relatively steady.
It’s not all that hard to imagine Sewald being a serviceable closer again in 2025, and he figures to be affordable after a brutal second half.
Against: The Diamondbacks will be looking to contend in 2025, and it probably makes sense to target a reliever with a better recent track record than Sewald.
From Sewald’s perspective, a change of scenery might serve him well. A reunion seems unlikely.
Kevin Newman, UTIL
In favor: Newman had a sneaky good year for the Diamondbacks in 2024. When Geraldo Perdomo tore his meniscus in early April, Newman filled in admirably as the everyday shortstop and continued to play well in a utility role upon Perdomo’s return.
More often known for his bat than his glove, Newman’s defensive metrics were spectacular in 2024. He posted 4 outs above average in 428 innings at shortstop and 3 outs above average in 284.2 innings at second base, both matching or exceeding his career highs.
If the Diamondbacks do not re-sign Newman, they will need to find someone else to serve in a similar role. The best way to replace him might be to bring him back.
Against: After posting 2.2 bWAR in 2024, Newman figures to have a more robust market this offseason than he did last year, when the Diamondbacks signed him to a minor league deal.
It’s also worth noting that Newman outperformed his underlying batted ball metrics in 2024. He slashed a solid .278/.311/.375, but his expected batting average was .257 and his expected slugging percentage was just .326.
Josh Bell, 1B
In favor: Several free agent first basemen could conceivably approximate Christian Walker’s production, but only one has actually done it. That would be Josh Bell.
When Walker went down with an oblique injury in late July, the Diamondbacks acquired Bell in a trade with the Miami Marlins. Bell slashed .279/.361/.436 with five homers and 22 RBI with the Diamondbacks in the second half.
Bell figures to be affordable, and could provide some stability at first base alongside Smith. Bell could also contribute at DH.
Against: While Bell excelled with the Diamondbacks, he has been rather inconsistent for the past two seasons. On the whole, he slashed just .249/.319/.405 in 603 plate appearances in 2024. He also graded out as one of the worst defensive first basemen in baseball, and was below replacement level as a result.
At this stage of his career, Bell looks more like a bench bat than a frontline first baseman on a contender.
Randal Grichuk, OF/DH
In favor: It is hard to imagine Grichuk having a better 2024 season than he did. In 279 plate appearances, he slashed .291/.348/.528 with 12 homers and 46 RBI in his age-32 season. He figures to get a relatively short-term deal (two years, perhaps) at a reasonable AAV.
Grichuk probably won’t approximate Pederson’s production against right-handed pitching, but he rakes against lefties, and he more than held his own (.801 OPS) against righties in 2024. The fact that he can still play the outfield in a pinch is a bonus.
The Diamondbacks generally stuck to their original plan to use Grichuk only against south paws in 2024, but it often felt like he deserved a bigger role. They could give him that larger role to him in 2025 — and save money in the process by not spending big on a platoon partner for him.
Against: Much of Grichuk’s value in 2024 came from the fact that he hit well against righties for the first time in a while, and he figures to get a pay raise as a result. There are reasons to believe that uptick in production against righties was not sustainable, though.
First, there is the fact that he had just 95 plate appearances against same-handed pitchers this year. He had 337 plate appearances against righties in 2023, with an OPS of just .694. Many of those at-bats came in hitter-friendly Coors Field while playing for the Colorado Rockies.
Second, while Grichuk’s .801 OPS against righties in 2024 looks impressive, it was largely due to the fact that 13 of his 22 hits (59 percent) were extra-base hits. It’s difficult to maintain such a high extra-base hit frequency in the long run. (League average is 35 percent.) Grichuk’s on-base percentage against righties in 2024 was just .274.
All that is to say: Even after his spectacular 2024 season, Grichuk might still be best viewed as a short-side platoon bat. That profile still has value, but perhaps not enough to outbid other contenders for his services this winter.
Joc Pederson, DH
In favor: There were many factors at play in the Diamondbacks’ league-leading offense in 2024, but the presence of Joc Pederson might have been the biggest one.
In 2023, Diamondbacks designated hitters combined for a .676 OPS, the third-lowest mark in baseball. In 2024, they combined for an .873 OPS, the third-best mark in the league. Pederson was responsible for roughly two-thirds of those at-bats.
In 2024, the left-handed slugger slashed .275/.393/.515 with 23 homers and 64 RBI in 449 plate appearances. His .908 OPS was the highest mark of his career.
Pederson reportedly rejected his side of a $14 million mutual option for 2025, and retaining him will not be cheap. Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine the Diamondbacks’ DH production not taking a significant hit if they don’t.
Against: There is no debating that Pederson was incredible for the Diamondbacks in 2024, but it was also a career year. There are no guarantees that Pederson will post an OPS north of .900 in 2025, much less 2026. He is entering his age-33 season, and it will probably take a multi-year deal to retain him.
Pederson is also rather one-dimensional at this stage of his career. He did not log a single inning on defense in 2024, and he has not historically hit well against lefties. He has to destroy right-handed pitching to be valuable.
Scott McGough, RHP
In favor: It was not all that long ago that Scott McGough logged 22 1/3 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run (May 14 to June 25, 2023). Perhaps that version of him — and, specifically, the wipeout splitter that he has flashed at times — is still in there somewhere.
Cost will not be prohibitive, as McGough seems likely to sign a minor league deal after posting a 7.44 ERA in 2024.
Against: With the Diamondbacks declining their side of McGough’s $4 million mutual option, it is hard to see a reunion coming together. McGough is probably best served going elsewhere, where there is more opportunity and perhaps a new plan to get him back on track.
Top photo: Rick Scuteri/Imagn Images
