Every D-backs fans’ worst fear just came true: Corbin Burnes will require Tommy John surgery, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. After leaving his June 1 start against the Nationals with elbow pain, Burnes underwent an MRI and was placed on the 15-day IL before seeking a second opinion. That second opinion confirmed the need for surgery.

Burnes was set to be a staple atop the D-backs rotation for years after agreeing to a six-year pact with a with an opt-out clause after 2026. The star pitcher signed with Arizona in late December before making it official in January. A Cy Young Award winner with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021, Burnes brought legitimate pitching pedigree to an otherwise inconsistent group of starting pitchers. He’ll have surgery next week and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season and potentially a large chunk of 2026 too.

What This Means for Burnes

Burnes had undoubtedly been Arizona’s best pitcher this season, posting a 2.66 ERA in 11 starts with 63 strikeouts across 64.1 innings before his injury. Since April 30, he had a 1.67 ERA in his last seven starts. Really the only bugaboo for Burnes this season was giving up walks. His 3.6 walks per nine innings represent his highest total since 2020. Still, Burnes has been top-five in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and innings pitched since 2020, minimum 100 starts.

The 30-year-old pitcher had not missed a start in over three years before this, a testament to his durability in an era where pitching injuries are so prevalent. The fact that he’ll miss the majority of these next two seasons likely means that Burnes will not exercise his opt-out clause and will be with Arizona through 2030, his age 35 season.

Burnes has not ever had Tommy John surgery in his career, which is a good prognosis for his chances of at least making a solid comeback. At this point, undergoing the surgery might as well be a rite of passage if you want to be able to say you’re a major league pitcher. However, this isn’t to say there haven’t been success stories of guys who have undergone Tommy John surgery twice. Two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon and Walker Buehler are examples of some recent pitchers who have come back and had some success after going under the knife a second a time.

What it Means for the D-Backs

It’s certainly a monumental loss. That much is for certain. With Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly free agents this offseason, there’s no guarantee either returns to the rotation for 2026 and Burnes was set to keep the top of the rotation afloat alongside Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. Now that won’t be the case.

Arizona already lost one starting pitcher to Tommy John surgery before the season started in Jordan Montgomery. Although he was an absolute disaster for the D-backs last year, the hope was this season he could recoup some trade value. A team riddled with injuries this year, the only time another starting pitcher had headed to the IL all year was Eduardo Rodríguez who just came back after a 19-day absence due to left shoulder inflammation.

Without Burnes, the D-backs might struggle to find a starter they can rely on to give the team a win once every five days. Rodriguez has an ERA above seven, Pfaadt has one above five and a half and Zac Gallen has been a true mark of inconsistency, sometimes pitching an electric game like he did with only one earned run given up against the Braves or his blow ups against the Cubs and Rockies where he gave up six runs in each.

Ryne Nelson should be expected to handle Burnes’s spot in the rotation for the remainder of the season while rookie Christian Mena could see some spot starts if another starter gets injured or simply needs a little bit extra time off between starts

This also puts a blow to what the team and fans are hoping is a return to the postseason after a World Series loss in 2023 and then missing out on the postseason despite winning 89 games in 2024.

If the injury bug continues to nibble at the D-backs and starts affecting the starting rotation, it could be an uphill battle to take either the division where they are 6.5 games back of the Dodgers or the wildcard where they are 3.5 games back of the Giants for the final spot.