When the Diamondbacks took an early 8-0 lead in their series finale with the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, it looked like they had a four-game sweep in the bag.
A win meant a three-game lead in the National League wild card race with six games to play — and a potentially stress-free postseason berth some time early this week.
But, in stunning fashion, the Diamondbacks blew that eight-run lead. They lost, 10-9. Now, after also dropping Monday’s series opener to the San Francisco Giants, the team’s cushion in the postseason race has almost entirely evaporated.
Entering play on Tuesday, the Diamondbacks hold the third and final NL wild card spot, with the Atlanta Braves just 1 1/2 games behind them. The New York Mets are half a game in front of them and in the second wild card spot, and the San Diego Padres are 3 1/2 games up, occupying the top wild card spot.
Making matters trickier, the Diamondbacks do not hold the tiebreaker with either Atlanta or New York. The tiebreaker with San Diego will be determined by a three-game series this weekend.
According to Fangraphs, the Diamondbacks’ postseason odds have dwindled to 72.9 percent, their lowest mark since Aug. 8.
Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo is trying to keep perspective.
“I’m not worried about anything other than tomorrow,” Lovullo said after Monday’s 6-3 loss to the Giants. “That’s how I’m gonna look at it. We’ve got to. We’ve got to slice it up as thinly as we can. That’s been the way we’ve looked at this entire season. We just take one game at a time, come out tomorrow and play our best game.”
With five games left on the schedule, it is officially crunch time for the Diamondbacks. Here is everything you need to know as the regular season comes to a close.
How the Diamondbacks can clinch a postseason spot
At this point, it is impossible for the Diamondbacks to win the NL West, but they do control their own destiny in the wild card race.
If the Diamondbacks go 4-1 or 5-0 the rest of the way, they will make the postseason regardless of how the Mets, Braves and Padres perform.
Of course, going 4-1 or 5-0 is easier said than done. More than likely, they will need some help from other teams. Here is a look at every other possible scenario.
If the Diamondbacks go 3-2, they will make the postseason if ANY of the following are true (only one is required):
- The Braves go 4-2 or worse.
- The Mets go 2-4 or worse.
- The Padres go 0-6.
If the Diamondbacks go 2-3, they will make the postseason if ANY of the following are true (only one is required):
- The Braves go 3-3 or worse.
- The Mets go 1-5 or worse.
If the Diamondbacks go 1-4, they will make the postseason if ANY of the following are true (only one is required):
- The Braves go 2-4 or worse.
- The Mets go 0-6.
If the Diamondbacks lose all five of their remaining games, they will only make the postseason if the Braves go 1-5 or 0-6.
Which other teams should Diamondbacks fans root for?
With the Diamondbacks likely needing help from other teams, fans may want to split their allegiances over the final week of the season.
Before we dive in, here’s a look at each wild card contender’s remaining schedule:
- D-backs: 2 vs. SF, 3 vs. SD
- Padres: 3 @ LAD, 3 @ ARI
- Mets: 3 @ ATL, 3 @ MIL
- Braves: 3 vs. NYM, 3 vs. KC
And now, here is your rooting guide:
Los Angeles Dodgers … and the San Diego Padres?
Perhaps the thought of rooting for the Dodgers makes you nauseous, but the reality is that the Diamondbacks are no longer in contention with Los Angeles. It appears to be in the Diamondbacks’ best interest for the Dodgers to win their three-game series over the Padres at Dodger Stadium.
By “win,” however, we do not necessarily mean sweep. If the Dodgers were to sweep San Diego, the Padres might still be jockeying for wild card position upon arrival to Arizona this weekend.
The happy medium here seems to be the Dodgers winning two of three. In that case, the Padres would come to Arizona without any hope of catching the Dodgers in the NL West but a wild card spot clinched.
At that point, San Diego might still be in the hunt to secure home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series, but they likely would not need the whole weekend to do that. Perhaps they would wind up resting players in the final game or two against the D-backs.
New York Mets
The fact that the Mets are about to play a three-game series with the Braves is a big help for the Diamondbacks. It guarantees that one of those teams will lose each day of the series.
There aren’t any disastrous outcomes here, but, as of now, the best one for the Diamondbacks appears to be the Mets sweeping the Braves.
While that would make it difficult for the Diamondbacks to catch the Mets, it would also bury a Braves team that already trails the D-backs by 1 1/2 games.
The Diamondbacks would only have to go 2-3 the rest of the way to guarantee themselves a postseason spot — and that’s assuming that Atlanta turns around and sweeps the Kansas City Royals to end the season.
If the Braves win the series, that would put both them and New York in decent position to beat the Diamondbacks in the standings. Of course, it’s okay for one of those teams to finish above Arizona; just not both of them. (Technically, the Diamondbacks could finish behind both the Mets and Braves and still make the playoffs, but that requires the Padres to lose all six remaining games.)
Kansas City Royals
After the Braves’ three-game series with the Mets, they finish their season with a three-game set against a Royals team that figures to be quite motivated.
Entering play on Tuesday, the Royals are tied with the Detroit Tigers for the second American League wild card spot, with both teams holding a one-game lead over the Minnesota Twins, who are on the outside looking in.
The Royals have little hope of catching the Baltimore Orioles for the top wild card spot — Baltimore is four games up on them entering Tuesday — so they’re likely just focused on getting in.
On that note, as part of your new Royals fandom, you might also want to adopt the Twins. A good week for the Twins would keep the pressure on the Royals when they face Atlanta.
The Twins finish with a three-game series against the Miami Marlins followed by a three-game set against the Orioles.
Milwaukee Brewers
After taking on the Braves, the Mets will finish out their season against the Brewers in Milwaukee. If the Diamondbacks find a way to eliminate Atlanta — which is currently more likely than eliminating New York — then that Brewers-Mets series might not matter much.
For the moment, however, passing the Mets is one possible route to a Diamondbacks postseason berth, so it might be time to dust off that old Brewers cap that your grandma inexplicably gave you when you were 12.
Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, it seems unlikely that the Brewers will have much to play for over the weekend. The Brewers already clinched the NL Central, and they trail both the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies by 3 1/2 games in the chase for a first-round bye. They do not hold the tiebreaker over either team, so they might pack it in sooner than later and decide to rest key players.
Key questions for Diamondbacks
How will starting pitching matchups look?
Here is a look at the projected starting pitchers for every Diamondbacks game the rest of the way, assuming that each team simply stays in line:
- Sept. 24 vs. SF: RHP Logan Webb vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
- Sept. 25 vs SF: RHP Mason Black vs. RHP Zac Gallen
- Sept. 27 vs. SD: LHP Martin Pérez vs. RHP Merrill Kelly
- Sept. 28 vs. SD: RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery
- Sept. 29 vs. SD: RHP Michael King vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
There are a few caveats here. First, Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson is scheduled to throw a 25-pitch bullpen Tuesday, and it sounds like he could return from a shoulder inflammation injury when first eligible this weekend.
When asked about Nelson’s role, Lovullo said that it will depend on how many pitches he can throw.
“We’re not going to run him out there and start him for 35 pitches if that’s what the number is,” Lovullo said. “We’ll put it all into the search engine. If it spits something out that’s positive with a big number, we may. If not, we might have him piggyback or come out of the bullpen. He’s a weapon. We want to find the best way to use him as a weapon.”
It’s also worth noting that Pfaadt would be on sufficient rest to pitch the last day of the season if the Diamondbacks preferred him to Rodriguez. Rodriguez, similarly, could be moved up to Saturday if the team preferred him over Montgomery.
As discussed earlier, the Padres might not have much to play for this weekend. Perhaps Padres manager Mike Schildt would opt to, say, save Michael King — who has arguably been his best starter this year — for Game 2 of the Wild Card Series rather than start him on the last day of the year.
Can Diamondbacks’ bullpen right the ship?
As discussed at length in a story on Monday, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has struggled mightily in September. That unit has a 6.58 ERA this month entering Tuesday.
In order to get to the postseason — and to succeed once they got there — the Diamondbacks will probably need high-leverage arms such as Justin Martinez, Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel to step up. They will also need left-hander A.J. Puk to continue to dominate.
Given that none of those four arms were used in Monday’s loss and the off-day on Thursday, the Diamondbacks could be pretty aggressive with how they deploy them the rest of the way.
That group will go a long way in deciding whether the Diamondbacks are soon popping champagne bottles, or lamenting one of the most brutal late-season collapses in franchise history.
Top photo: Michael McLoone/Imagn Images
