With the Winter Meetings set to take place in Dallas next week, not much has happened around baseball.
Almost all of the top free agents — most notably Juan Soto — are still out there. The trade market has yet to develop. Here in Arizona, the Diamondbacks‘ offseason to-do list is basically just as long as it was a month ago.
Nonetheless, there is a sense in the industry that this year’s Winter Meetings could be livelier than those of recent years. Soto could sign during the meetings — or perhaps before. If he does, it could send a shockwave to all corners of the market.
The Diamondbacks figure to be active. With sluggers Christian Walker, Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk reaching free agency, they would like to replenish the middle of their lineup. They would like to add to the backend of the bullpen. They could use a bench piece or two.
With top starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly just one year away from free agency, this is perhaps the franchise’s most important — and most fascinating — offseason in over a decade.
As we ponder what the Diamondbacks will do in the coming days and weeks, it’s helpful to know their starting point. So, here is our best guess at what the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster would look like if the season began today.
Starting pitchers (5)
Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery
Other candidates on 40-man roster: Ryne Nelson, Yilber Diaz, Tommy Henry, Blake Walston, Cristian Mena, Joe Elbis
The Diamondbacks’ rotation had an underwhelming 4.79 ERA this season. Ironically, it is also an area of surplus that the club could use in trades this winter.
Entering 2025, the Diamondbacks have six starters that they could comfortably pencil in to their rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson.
Montgomery is seemingly the most likely of the group to be traded. He is owed $22.5 million next season after posting a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings in 2024. The Diamondbacks would probably have to eat money to deal him, but the money they save could go a long way toward improving other areas of the roster.
If the Diamondbacks keep Montgomery, he figures to get every opportunity to start out of spring training. As we have projected here, that could mean that Nelson — who went 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA from June 14 through the end of the 2024 season — is the odd man out.
If the Diamondbacks opt to keep all of their starters, they might not regret it. Excluding openers, they needed 11 different starting pitchers to get through the 2024 season.
Relievers (8)
Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, Joe Mantiply, Seth Martinez, Bryce Jarvis, Drey Jameson
Other candidates on 40-man roster: Kyle Nelson, Slade Cecconi
The Diamondbacks have the makings of a solid bullpen, but they will look to add to it this offseason.
Currently, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson and Joe Mantiply look like locks for the Opening Day roster. That leaves three spots possibly up for grabs.
Right-hander Bryce Jarvis had a strong 2024 season before succumbing to an elbow sprain in August. His 3.19 ERA in 59 1/3 innings was soured by poor underlying metrics, however, including a 14.7 percent strikeout rate that barely outpaced his 12.8 percent walk rate.
If the season started today, right-hander Seth Martinez would likely make the team. The Diamondbacks claimed Martinez off waivers from the Houston Astros last month. In 2024, he posted a 3.59 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings with Houston.
In this initial roster projection, we have Drey Jameson rounding out the group. Jameson had Tommy John surgery in September 2023, but he is expected to be ready to pitch — likely out of the bullpen — in spring training, according to a recent MLB.com story. Jameson showed promise in a relief role in 2023, posting a 2.81 ERA in 32 innings out of the bullpen.
Other options on the 40-man roster include left-hander Kyle Nelson and righty Slade Cecconi.
Nelson underwent thoracic outlet surgery in May and should be ready for spring training. Cecconi struggled to the tune of a 6.66 ERA in 2024, but he remains one of the club’s more intriguing young pitchers. Cecconi worked out of the bullpen to finish the 2024 season, but he could be an option to start as well.
Catchers (3)
Gabriel Moreno, Jose Herrera, Adrian Del Castillo
Other candidates on 40-man roster: N/A
It seems unlikely that the Diamondbacks will carry three catchers heading into the 2025 season, but, if the season began today, it would arguably make sense.
In this universe, Adrian Del Castillo would serve primarily as a designated hitter, a role that is now unoccupied with Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk reaching free agency. Whether the Diamondbacks are interested in using Del Castillo as a DH — or, perhaps, trying to get him reps at first base — will become clearer as the offseason progresses.
Whatever his role might be moving forward, Del Castillo showed promise offensively in his first taste of the majors. In 87 plate appearances in 2024, he slashed .313/.368/.525 with four homers and 19 RBI.
The big question for Del Castillo is his glove; the Diamondbacks sent him down in September because they preferred Jose Herrera‘s defense.
For now, take this three-catcher arrangement with a grain of salt.
Infielders (5)
Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Eugenio Suárez, Pavin Smith, Blaze Alexander
Other candidates on 40-man roster: Jordan Lawlar, Tim Tawa
The biggest question facing the Diamondbacks in the infield is how they will replace free agent Christian Walker at first base.
The solution could be as simple as bringing Walker back. That probably won’t come cheaply, though, with Walker’s market already looking robust, according to reports.
Instead, the Diamondbacks could replace Walker internally with former first-round pick Pavin Smith. The 28-year-old looked better than ever in 2024 with an .896 OPS in 158 plate appearances. The Diamondbacks could give him the majority of the first-base reps but look for a platoon partner to face lefties. They could also look for a full-time first baseman via trade or free agency, and have Smith contribute elsewhere.
In addition to a first baseman, the Diamondbacks could also use a utility infielder. Veteran Kevin Newman was excellent in that role in 2024, but he was one of the first free agents to sign this winter, inking a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
A veteran from outside the organization could be a nice addition, but young infielders Blaze Alexander and Jordan Lawlar are both names to watch.
Alexander showed promise with the bat early in the 2024 season, but he went 4-for-42 in his final 50 major-league plate appearances. While Alexander was well-regarded on defense as a prospect, he struggled on that side of the ball. According to reports, the Diamondbacks are open to getting Alexander some outfield reps in 2025.
While Lawlar missed almost the entire 2024 season with injuries, he is the top prospect in the organization and one of the top prospects in the sport.
Lawlar played 27 games in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, and he seems likely to open the 2025 season in the minors. He could be an option for the major-league team shortly thereafter, potentially covering a variety of infield positions.
Outfielders (5)
Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Jorge Barrosa
Other candidates on 40-man roster: N/A
After trading outfielders in back-to-back winters — Daulton Varsho in 2022-23 and Dominic Fletcher in 2023-24 — could the Diamondbacks do it again? Their outfield depth is not quite as sturdy as it has been in recent years, but it might be advantageous to do so. The center field market is thin.
In the right trade, the Diamondbacks could possibly afford to part with Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas. (Corbin Carroll is all but certain to stay put.) McCarthy is coming off an excellent year in which he hit .285/.349/.400 with eight homers, 56 RBI and 3.0 fWAR. Thomas, meanwhile, struggled to stay healthy in 2024 and hit just .189/.245/.358 in a small sample of 103 major-league plate appearances.
If the Diamondbacks were to swing a trade for one of them, they could backfill the spot by acquiring another hitter who can play in the outfield.
Dealing an outfielder could also mean a bigger role for 23-year-old switch-hitter Jorge Barrosa. Barrosa played eight games in the majors in 2024, going 3-for-17 with two doubles and a stolen base. He is regarded as a solid defender at all three outfield positions.
It is also worth noting that Pavin Smith appeared in 17 games in right field and 16 in left field in 2024. Depending on how the Diamondbacks fill their first base and DH needs, Smith could be a factor in the outfield as well.
Top photo: Benny Sieu/Imagn Images
