The Arizona Diamondbacks have a lot of questions to answer this offseason, but one of the first is whether or not to bring back Manager Torey Lovullo.
Lovullo has managed 692 regular season games with the D-backs since taking the job prior to the 2017 season. Only Kirk Gibson has managed more games in franchise history at 729.
Over Lovullo’s five-season stint as manager, the D-backs are 332-360 (.480) in the regular season. The overall numbers are fairly average, but his tenure in Arizona has seen many highs and lows.
Lovullo burst on the scene in 2017 by instantly winning National League Manager of the Year honors. Following a disastrous 2016 campaign under previous manager Chip Hale, Lovullo led the D-backs to a 93-69 finish, good enough for an NL Wild Card Game appearance that yielded one of the most memorable postseason moments in franchise history.
Unfortunately, it’s been mostly downhill since for Lovullo and the D-backs. A year after taking the league by storm, the D-backs won 82 games. By mid-2019, the team had traded or moved on from core pieces Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin.
Nonetheless, Lovullo’s D-backs clawed their way to an impressive 85-77 finish in 2019, enough for the team to push their chips in again leading to 2020. Things turned south quickly.
Since the start of the delayed 2020 season, Lovullo and the D-backs have gone 72-134, the worst record in the National League in that span.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Lovullo is bad at his job. He won a Manager of the Year award for a reason. He didn’t become horrible overnight.
That said, job security for MLB managers is only as stable as team performance, and the D-backs have been virtually unwatchable since May.
Unfortunately, it’s almost impossible to separate team performance from managerial performance, especially since Lovullo has had very little talent to work with the last two seasons amid countless injuries. However, there are a few stats worth noting.
According to FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, no team has been better at base running since Lovullo’s tenure began than the D-backs. That includes a respectable 9th best mark this year, despite the absence of baserunning guru Dave McKay due to an injury scare.
Under the Lovullo regime, the D-backs have stolen 329 in 417 attempts since 2017. That works out to a 79% success rate, which is among the best marks in baseball.
One of the early critiques of Torey Lovullo was that he left pitchers in too long. Lovullo has changed in that regard over the years. As shown below, he is protecting his pitchers from the third trip through the batting order as much as ever.
| Year | Total Batters Faced Third Time Through the Order |
| 2017 | 1,027 |
| 2018 | 956 |
| 2019 | 837 |
| 2020 | 239 (proportional to 645 over a full 162 game season) |
| 2021 | 648 |
Granted, Lovullo’s faster hook can be partially explained by the fact that the quality of his starting pitching has generally declined since his tenure began. In 2017, Zack Greinke was a legitimate ace, and both Robbie Ray and Zack Godley had breakout seasons. Those are the type of guys you want pitching deep in games.
Nonetheless, the very next year, both Ray and Godley posted ERAs of 9.00 or higher when facing hitters for the third time. Lovullo’s hook has only continued to quicken ever since.
This year, only Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner have faced more than 100 batters the third time through the order, with Zac Gallen right behind at 98. Aside from those three, Lovullo has extended those opportunities pretty sparingly. When he has, D-backs pitchers have performed near league average. All that to say, there is little evidence that Torey Lovullo is mismanaging his pitchers.
It’s probably easy to point to situations here and there where his decisions have backfired, but frankly, that’s probably more indicative of a bad roster than a manager that isn’t pressing the right buttons. Lovullo has had very few bullpen weapons to work with throughout his tenure.
From a player’s perspective, Lovullo has always received high praise. Many have suggested that he stunted the growth of players who have found success elsewhere. Go ask American League Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray if Lovullo held him back – the answer is going to be no. Ray’s first breakout season came the year Lovullo arrived. It’s a baseless argument.
This is not to say Lovullo doesn’t have his quirks. We’ve seen his signature player loyalty get him in trouble time and time again. He should probably leverage platoons more. His pre-scheduled off-days for players somehow always seem to plant the hottest hitter on the bench.
There is also a valid argument to be made that a very young team would benefit from having a new voice in the clubhouse to usher in the next era of Diamondbacks baseball.
But for a team that is crawling to the finish line amid serious roster depth questions at virtually every position, Lovullo is probably the least of their concerns.
Notably, the Diamondbacks have historically had little patience with managers in similar situations as Lovullo.
Just three years after winning them a World Series, Bob Brenly was let go in mid-2004 in what turned out to be the worst season in franchise history. Similarly, the club moved on from 2011 N.L. Manager of the Year Kirk Gibson after an underwhelming 2014 season.
If club history is any indication, it would be far from shocking to see the D-backs move on from Lovullo.
That said, one thing is certain: Lovullo is beloved across baseball. If the D-backs let him go, he won’t be unemployed for long.
2 Comments (1 conversation)
DesertCanuck
I don’t think much is this year’s troubles are attributable to Lovullo. He has had a minor league pitching staff for most of the year, and the trading of Escobar has left the roster pretty much comprised of young players. Veterans like Walker and Ahmed have come up small. And MadBum seems to have been a huge mistake. Firing the manager isn’t the answer.
Thanks for reading! I agree. He’s the natural fall-guy for a season as bad as this one. But a lot of other teams would jump at the chance to have him.