Here's why the Arizona Cardinals won't look past the 49ers

With Halloween month upon us, now would be a good time for the Arizona Cardinals to focus on exorcising some demons.

While last week’s marquee victory over Sean McVay’s LA Rams was certainly welcomed, there’s another upcoming divisional matchup that just seems more personal.

It’s not news to anyone who follows this franchise that the Arizona Cardinals are still trying to snap a five year post season drought. That’s in part because, in Week 16 of last year, the 5 and 9 San Francisco 49ers upset the heavily favored Redbirds in what was undoubtedly the low point of the 2020 season.

For those that remember, it was an absolute disaster of a performance that was not so conveniently aired nationally on Amazon Prime Video.

The 49ers, led by third string QB C.J. Beathard, had been hotel living in Arizona for weeks due to the then Santa Clara County COVID-19 policies outlawing the playing of contact sports. Yet Kyle Shanahan and company still managed to stroll into State Farm Stadium and put together a performance that shocked the Arizona Cardinal organization to it’s core.

Led by three Beathard touchdown passes, combined with a defensive performance that likely netted Robert Saleh the Jets head gig, the Niners stunned Arizona 20-12 as the Cardinals seemingly never recovered.

The fall out from this disastrous defeat was predictably major blame on Kliff Kingsbury, fueling the fire that the former collegiate coach had no business hanging with big boys in the vaunted NFC West. That messaging continued long into the offseason, with the large majority of national media pundits seemingly writing off Arizona indefinitely despite a flurry of upgrades and additions.

Instead of potential contract extensions for Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim, the 2020 collapse only put greater pressure on pairing to get it done this season.

The problem with that being, outside of the desert, the 2021 Cardinals were preseason afterthoughts in large part because no one could forget what they had seen back on December 26th, 2020. They had convinced themselves that this Cardinals team was mentally and physically soft, to the point where no influx of talent could save them.

Yet fast forward a month into the current season, and here sits Kingsbury’s Cardinals at 4-0, anxious to welcome back Shanahan’s bunch following last year’s inexplicable loss.

It’s the primary reason, despite the San Fran’s mediocre start, that I believe we will see a buttoned up Cardinal squad ready for the challenge ahead.

But it won’t be easy. The Cardinals, via the DraftKings SportsBook, are currently a -4.5 point favorite despite their tremendous resume to begin the season.

For only the second time in five games, the Cardinals will be back in front of their home crowd at a popping State Farm Stadium. This is a staunch contrast to that forgettable Week 16 contest, in which the Red Sea was prohibited (due to COVID-19) from cheering on their squad’s pursuit of a post season birth.

On that day, in front of an empty stadium, Vance Joseph’s defense allowed backup running back Jeff Wilson to go for over 180 yards rushing while netting an absurd 8.3 yards per carry. It’s not hyperbole to suggest that, as a result, Michael Bidwill made it a priority to bring on some much needed toughness and physicality along his defensive line.

Which is why it’s imperative that we see the best version of J.J. Watt, to date, in a Cardinal uniform Sunday.

Arizona currently ranks 9th in total points allowed defensively, but is a pedestrian 25th against the run with some frustrating performances against the Vikings and the Rams. Both of whom lean on similar zone run concepts as these 49ers, with Shanahan desperate to replicate his ground game from a year ago.

Compound that with the uncertainty at the quarterback position, with smart money on rookie Trey Lance to earn his first career start, and you can expect the Niners to fully commit to the run for four quarters on Sunday.

Incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo is nursing a sore hamstring that would likely limit is already marginal play to begin this season.

#49ers John Lynch on Garoppolo status for Sunday at #AZCardinals after missing past 2 practices:
"He wanted to get out there, too. It's painful. He's been living in training room. Today is critical. If he’s not out there, we go with Trey (Lance."

— Cam Inman (@CamInman) October 8, 2021

While Lance is openly the number two quarterback according to Shanahan, he does possess the kind of traits that have burned Vance Joseph led defenses in years prior. His ability to move in the pocket, with a heavy run offense already prioritized, could give Arizona’s defense problems especially with the return of All Pro LT Trent Williams.

Lets not forget the kind of performances rookie QB’s have had against Joseph, with the most recent examples being standout efforts by both Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts.

That’s a recipe that will at least give some in that 49er locker room a belief that they can in fact upset the last unbeaten team in football. If Lance does indeed run with the starters, the Cardinals can expect a large amount of roll-outs, QB keeps and RPOs in an attempt to limit possessions for Kyler Murray’s offense.

Kliff Kingsbury says it doesn’t look like Byron Murphy will be available Sunday and we’ll see about Marco Wilson.

“must stay tuned” to see what they do if Murphy can’t play.

— Chierstin Susel (@ChierstinSusel) October 8, 2021

Perhaps more so than any other game this season, it’s imperative that Cardinal defenders do a quality job wrapping up and tackling against San Francisco. Lance is liable to make some mistakes (as is Garoppolo), as Kingsbury would love to replicate last week’s quick start thanks to some convenient turnovers. That can’t happen if the Niners are consistently able to run downhill, keeping each down and distance manageable.

On the flip side, the Cardinal offense will attempt to do what most teams have done against the 49er defense this season which is pressure them deep. San Francisco’s corners are some of the worst the NFL, which means their only saving grace is a quality pass rush. That puts greater ownership on D.J. Humphries to handle standout DE Nick Bosa on a consistent basis.

Regardless, with the way Kyler Murray is currently operating, it would take a heroic defensive effort by the Niners to slow him off of his MVP pace.

The bottom line is that the Arizona Cardinals, as they were last December, are the better team. With a loss, the 49ers would enter a tailspin of three straight defeats while the Cardinals would be flying high, sporting a quick 2-0 start in the NFC West.

Unlike a season ago, this Arizona team is much more self aware of who they are and what they are capable of doing. For large stretches of play, following their 6-3 start, the 2020 Cardinals appeared to merely be hanging on for dear life. As a result, they routinely played not to lose, which ironically led to them finishing 2-5 while missing the playoffs entirely.

The 2021 Arizona Cardinals are no longer a passive football team, rather they routinely go on the attack most Sundays which has led to three end results of double digit win margins.

Kingsbury, who is seemingly building more confidence with each passing week, has an opportunity to keep his foot on the gas Sunday against San Francisco. He also has a chance to school Shanahan’s 49ers just as they embarrassed him last year. It’s worth noting that, at the writing of this article, Kliff Kingsbury currently sports a higher regular season winning percentage when compared to Shanahan.

Kliff Kingsbury (.486)
Kyle Shanahan (.456) https://t.co/Sc6iE1KAEe

— Johnny Venerable (@JohnnyVenerable) October 4, 2021

Something that I would argue is completely foreign to the general public.

Not that any of it matters to this new and improved version of Kliff Kingsbury, who has his 2021 squad firing on all cylinders as they look to lay waste to the team that seemingly cost him everything a season ago.