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The Wildcats are back in the Sweet 16.
To get there, Arizona mounted a comeback against the Oregon Ducks in the Round of 32 and Caleb Love reminded the mainstream media who he is en route to a huge 29-point performance. Tobe Awaka showcased his rebounding prowess and helped guide the Wildcats back into the game. It was a contest that showed flaws in Arizona’s game but also showcased the Big-12’s effect on the toughness of the Wildcats.
Meanwhile, Duke and Cooper Flagg took out the Baylor Bears 89-66 without much issue. Norchad Omier was in early foul trouble and it played a huge role in the point disparity.
This has set the table for a rematch between two teams that met in the 2011 Sweet 16. Arizona versus Duke, with an Elite 8 on the line. Will it be Caleb Love channeling his inner Derrick Williams or will it be Cooper Flagg and Duke proving why they are the true number one seed in this tournament?
Dancing with the Blue Devils
Duke is the only team in the top three in offensive (1st) and defensive (3rd) raw efficiency, per KenPom. This year’s Blue Devils team is the second-highest net rating in KenPom history (38.30); the 1998-99 squad is the only other team with a higher net rating (43.01).
Duke is also the nation’s tallest team, with no rotation player shorter than 6-foot-5. They’ve won 28 of their last 29 games. Junior Tyrese Proctor has gone 13-16 from 3-point range and has 44 points and seven assists through two NCAA Tournament games.
All of that and superstar freshman Cooper Flagg, the presumptive number one overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft, has not even been mentioned yet. The Maine product leads Duke in every major statistical category: points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He is also the first freshman since 1994 with 30+ points, 15+ rebounds, and 10+ assists.
Flagg scored 24 points and recorded seven rebounds and three assists in the November matchup between Duke and Arizona at McKale Center. It is difficult to stop a player like Flagg, and the difficulty is compounded by the talented surrounding him. It is not simply Proctor and Flagg.
Khaman Maluach, a freshman from South Sudan stands 7-foot-2 and has been acknowledged by Arizona Head Coach Tommy Lloyd as a uniquely talented big man who can protect the rim, challenge guards, and also use his athleticism to get back into defensive plays he maybe out of position on.
Kon Knueppel, another talented freshman, can shoot the lights out. Knueppel was proficient from beyond the arc versus Arizona in November and has been getting NBA Draft buzz since.
At the helm of all this talent is 3rd-year head coach Jon Scheyer who has accumulated the 4th most wins in his first three seasons as a head coach at the D-1 level. Scheyer ranks just below Tommy Lloyd, Brad Stevens and Brad Underwood. He has been drawing up creative and effective defensive schemes all season, which has led in part to Duke’s incredibly high net rating. Can Arizona overcome the powerhouse that is the 2024-25 Duke men’s basketball team?
Smells like 2011
The Arizona Wildcats are no stranger to being a near double digit underdog to the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16. In 2011, an Arizona team led by future NBA veteran Derrick Williams, Solomon Hill, Lamont Jones, and Kyle Fogg faced off against Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, and both Plumlee brothers. In that Sweet 16 matchup, the Wildcats were also almost 10-point underdogs and overcame the odds to defeat Duke and advance to the Elite 8 where they would later lose to UConn.
So what Can the Arizona Wildcats do to repeat history tomorrow?
Keys to the game
Arizona was punched in the mouth by Oregon and fell to an early 15-point deficit versus the Ducks with hard-nose play and set a new Round of 32 mark for biggest comeback victory. If Arizona is going to defeat Duke, a quick start on both ends will be a necessity. That looks like the Wildcats setting the tone with physicality and pace to start this game. Tobe Awaka, Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, and Trey Townsend have to start with a Big-12, heavyweight boxing mentality.
On offense, Arizona needs a hot start because in tournament games where the offense struggles, the Wildcats have failed to find wins. Arizona under Tommy Lloyd is 6-1 in NCAA Tournament games where they score 70+ points and 0-2 when scoring less than 70. Even in conference play this caught up to the Cats, as they fell to Kansas State in a surprising loss, shooting 2-22 from beyond-the-arc.
The second key to this game for Arizona will be the performance of the front-court. In two of three Duke losses this season, the Blue Devils have lost the offensive rebound percentage battle. The Wildcats have steadily been becoming a better rebounding team by the game.
Awaka finished 5th in RPG in the Big-12 and has the potential to cause rebounding problems for Duke with his physicality and tenacious mentality. Maluach is an incredible rim presence but even at his size he is only part the rebounder Awaka is at this point in their careers. Awaka played just 12 minutes versus Duke in the November contest.
Henri Veesaar is Arizona’s only player that can match Maluach’s size and skillset on both ends. Veesaar also did not play the same role in November as he does now. The skilled big has begun attracting the attention of some NBA scouts and looks to be one of Arizona’s most promising talents. Will that show in this game? Veesaar has a ton of potential and this is an opportunity for him to prove his level against a top-end team like Duke. He also played just 13 minutes in the first matchup against Duke in the fall. The Estonian big-man will have to be a tool for Arizona, combating the size of this Duke team.
The third and final key to victory in this game for Arizona is limiting self-inflicted errors. The Wildcats committed 15 turnovers in the November matchup and lost by 14 points, while Love, the public enemy number one for all Duke fans among active players, did not shoot the ball well. Sometimes the shots don’t fall and Love is expected to have a big game in this Sweet 16 setting.
What Arizona cannot afford is another 10+ turnover game. Some of Duke’s past opponents have also shot themselves in the foot, reducing their own odds to win the game. NC State had 11 turnovers, losing by 10. Auburn had eight and lost by just six points. To further drive home this point, Baylor had just five turnovers and still lost by 23.
Arizona was in it in McKale, going back and forth with Duke. Duke pulled away in part because Arizona was not executing the little things that lead to winning. If the Wildcats can clean up the self-induced errors that have plagued them at times this season, they give themselves a greater chance to win in this one.
Cashin’ in?
Odds via Bet365:
- Spread: Arizona +9.5 (-110)
- Total: 153.5 (-110)
- Money Line: Arizona (+390) & Duke (-525)
Where to watch
The Sweet 16 rematch will take place 6:39 MST on CBS. Brain Anderson is on play-by-play for the game, Jim Jackson and Allie LaForce will also report for the Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament matchup on Thursday.
Watch our full Arizona versus Duke preview:
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