Jalen Smith's big opportunity is showing his potential...and his limitations

Winning NBA teams with young stars and respected basketball cultures aren’t always the best environments for newly-drafted players. Former 10th overall pick Jalen Smith has learned that the hard way with the Phoenix Suns, only set against the backdrop of a COVID-ravaged introduction to the pros.

Not only did Stix get coronavirus in the first month as a rookie last year, but the normal initiation process to the NBA — getting drafted in June, playing in Summer League, participating in involuntary workouts over the summer and then going to training camp — was condensed into a 34-day whirlwind that scrapped Summer League altogether, rushed training camp and squeezed that whole orientation process into the shortest offseason in NBA history.

“Obviously it was my first year coming into the league, and it was a hard offseason coming in, so I didn’t really get the full package,” Smith said before the season began. “But that’s no excuse, so now it’s just being able to put everything together and also showing that even though I didn’t get much time as most people, I can still do what I can do and do my job well.”

Jalen Smith is finally getting his chance to show out, and it’s confirming what most people have thought of the 21-year-old stretch-big…no matter which end of the spectrum you fall on.

The potential of Jalen Smith

Our season preview for Stix was literally titled “Jalen Smith has a lot to prove,” which felt like an understatement for a top-10 pick who played a grand total of 156 minutes in his rookie year. He’s already surpassed that number with 170 minutes through 14 appearances this season, and for an injury- and COVID-depleted Suns squad, he’s capitalizing on his chance to prove himself.

“Not to get too philosophical, but oftentimes in life, we all just need an opportunity,” acting coach Kevin Young said before Friday’s game. “But the one thing about him is he has stayed ready throughout his time with us.”

When Deandre Ayton entered health and safety protocols on Monday, Stix stepped into the backup center role, notching a then-career-high 15 points and 9 rebounds while going 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. He followed that up with 11 points, a career-high 14 rebounds and 2 blocks in a win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday.

Then on Friday, with backup center JaVale McGee joining Ayton in health and safety protocols, Smith earned his second career start. He was one of the lone bright spots in the game, finishing with a new career high of 19 points and 7 rebounds on 7-of-9 shooting.

Tough night for the Suns but Jalen Smith went to work.

19 PTS | 7 REBS | 7-9 FG#ValleyProud | @SweetJames pic.twitter.com/sx1Z5T4zvB

— Bally Sports Arizona (@BALLYSPORTSAZ) December 31, 2021

“Amazing, he played unbelievable,” Devin Booker said. “Catching passes, finishing, defending, talking, more more talkative than I’ve ever heard him, so I’m proud of that. That’s part of development: getting chances, getting thrown out in the fire, and he did well with it.”

Over the last three games, Stix is averaging 15.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 26.8 minutes per game. He’s shot 15-for-26 from the field (57.7 percent), 2-for-6 from 3-point range and 13-for-15 from the foul line. It’s not just box score production either; he’s a team-high +27 overall in this three-game stretch, setting a new career high in scoring twice, a new career high in rebounding and tying his career high in blocks.

“Like coach Monty [Williams] says, you always gotta be ready for the unexpected, and I was just ready,” Smith said. “They called my name up for me to step up even more, and obviously with JaVale and DA being out, I tried to carry as much of their load as I can.”

After the Thunder win, Young said Smith’s performance is gaining the confidence of his teammates, with Devin Booker even bringing it up to his acting head coach.

“Any time he’s around the basket, he’s got a real nose for the ball, and I thought you saw that tonight,” Young said. “To be able to have guys you can plug and play is a luxury, especially given the situation that we’re in league-wide.”

Before this three-game stretch, Smith was only averaging 8.0 minutes a night over his 11 appearances. So what gives? How does a player who looks NBA-ready slip through the cracks of a rotation like this?

The limitations of Jalen Smith

As great as Stix has been, the last three games have also painted a pretty clear picture of his limitations. The offense and rebounding have been welcome contributions for this shorthanded group, but Smith is also proving why it’s hard to fill DA’s or even McGee’s shoes if the goal is to compete at a championship level.

Aside from the obvious that Phoenix has lost two of its last three games, the numbers indicate just how much this team is missing the rim protection, rebounding, communication and defensive versatility that Ayton and Jae Crowder provide on the back line.

In this short stretch, the Suns are giving up a whopping 58.7 points in the paint and 18.7 second-chance points per game — marks that would rank dead-last in the NBA over a full season by a significant margin. For reference, the Suns were only giving up 44.6 points in the paint (11th-best mark in the league) and 13.3 second-chance points per game (18th) leading up to the last three games.

Oh, and the Suns have also been out-rebounded by 18 in that stretch…despite winning the battle for the boards by 11 against OKC.

Pinning all of that on Smith is obviously unfair, and it’s encouraging to see him produce on an individual level. But some of the shortcomings in his game — understandable as they may be for a second-year player trying to fill in for one of the game’s top-five centers — become more apparent when set against the backdrop of a title contender’s expectations.

“You look at the box, I mean, I think he had a big night in the box,” Young said halfheartedly after Friday’s blowout loss to the Celtics. “Proud of him, but at the same time, there’s areas he can get better in as well. But those are two big, physical guys he was going against, so all in all, I thought he did well.”

Young’s words are reminiscent of what Monty Williams said of Smith after the youngster played 22 up-and-down minutes in an Ayton-less game three weeks ago, also against Boston.

“Jalen was good in areas that we want him to progress in,” Williams said. “The rolling to the basket is something that we feel like he’s really good at. I thought there were a few 3s that he could have got to the second side or attacked the basket or rolled out of that pick-and-roll. He’s a good roller. I’m glad he did knock one down, and I thought his energy tonight was where it needs to be.”

There’s areas he can get better in as well.

I thought his energy tonight was where it needs to be.

Read between the lines and it’s clear that while the Suns enjoy watching Jalen Smith produce, they’re not entirely convinced he’s capable of helping them win. It’s always been this type of back-and-forth praise for Smith, which hints at the unfortunate truth: While he’s probably an NBA player, what he’s capable of offering at this stage isn’t enough to carve out minutes on a contender like the Suns.

In normal, non-COVID circumstances, Ayton and McGee have the center rotation taken care of, and when Frank Kaminsky is healthy, he deserves to be ahead of Stix on the frontcourt depth chart. Smith doesn’t navigate pick-and-rolls like Kaminsky, nor is he the same caliber or rim-running threat on dives to the basket like Ayton and McGee, which could explain part of the Suns’ 3-point shooting woes over the last handful of games.

In Phoenix’s win over the Celtics a few weeks back, Williams praised his performance but simultaneously pointed out an underlying problem: Smith’s best position is as a 5, where three seasoned, superior vets obstruct his path to minutes.

“That’s the one thing that early in the year last year when he did get a chance to play was the switching that gave him problems,” Williams said. “He was playing the 5 tonight, and against [Al] Horford, you gotta be ready to switch that pick-and-roll when he pops, and I didn’t think that was his problem tonight.”

What’s next?

Jalen Smith seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, his pick-and-pop footwork, pure shooting stroke, immense length and rebounding instincts indicate an NBA-caliber player who could blossom into something more if his team was able to invest more time into cultivating him.

“In this league, a lot of times, the only way to learn is with experience,” Chris Paul said. “Stix has been putting a lot of work in, and hopefully he continues to take full advantage of his opportunity.”

He’s certainly got people in his corner rooting for him, from Booker to JaVale McGee — who said he understands how hard it is to not get the minutes you think you deserve and still remain ready without consistently being in the flow of the rotation — to Jae Crowder, who said he was proud of Stix weeks before this revelatory three-game stretch.

“Seeing that opportunity meet preparation, he’s prepared for these moments,” Crowder said. “He put a lot of work in. He’s gained his respect in our locker room by just working. He don’t talk a lot, but he’s putting in time, so you get respect behind that.”

The problem is, the Suns have already chosen to decline Smith’s third-year rookie option worth $4.7 million, which will make him an unrestricted free agent after this season. It indicates their wariness of the sunk-cost fallacy, as well as the simple truth that his best position is currently occupied by 2-3 players who are simply better than him.

If the goal is contending for titles for the last few years of Chris Paul’s prime, it’s hard to see where Stix fits on this roster, especially if the Suns prioritize re-signing key depth pieces like McGee and Kaminsky.

Over the next few games, Smith has a golden opportunity to boost his value — either for the Suns to keep him around beyond this season in an unlikely reunion, or as an audition for his next team, which could arrive on the trade market or in free agency. In either scenario, it’ll be good to see him continue to produce, even with his cloudy long-term future in Phoenix looming overhead.