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Analysis: Joc Pederson isn't J.D. Martinez, but he is a big upgrade for Diamondbacks
In what has been a sluggish hot stove season, the Diamondbacks, relatively speaking, have been makin’ moves. On Thursday, general manager Mike Hazen made another.
According to multiple reports, the Diamondbacks signed free-agent slugger Joc Pederson to a one-year deal that includes a mutual option for 2025.
Pederson will reportedly make $9.5 million in 2024. Per Nick Piecoro, the 2025 mutual option is for $14 million and includes a $3 million buyout. The deal guarantees Pederson $12.5 million and could max out at $23.5 million over two years.
By his standards, Pederson is coming off a down year. In 2023, he hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers, 51 RBI and 0.6 fWAR in 425 plate appearances as a member of the rival San Francisco Giants. Pederson’s 2023 season was a far cry from his 2022 campaign, in which he slashed .274/.353/.521 and made his second All-Star team.
Pederson is a valuable player, but he has two clear areas of weakness: defense and hitting left-handed pitching. He played 38 games in the outfield corners in 2023; he totaled –5 defensive runs saved and –4 outs above average. He had 52 plate appearances against lefties; he posted a paltry .606 OPS.
For some Diamondbacks fans, though, Pederson’s biggest flaw is the simple fact that his name is neither Jorge Soler nor J.D. Martinez, both of whom the club reportedly coveted before agreeing to terms with Pederson. In a poll conducted by PHNX Sports earlier this month, around 80 percent of respondents voted for either Martinez or Soler as the free-agent hitter of choice. Pederson received only 2.1 percent of the vote.
To be fair, Martinez and Soler clearly outperformed Pederson in 2023. They each had an OPS north of .850. Both were All-Stars. Both hit north of 30 homers. Neither has much to offer defensively, but they are both competent hitters against lefties and righties.
Nonetheless, while Pederson was not exactly the consensus pick among Diamondbacks fans to fill the DH role in 2024, he should help his team this year. Like, a lot.
When Pederson is doing the thing he is best at — batting against right-handed pitchers — he is a real asset. In 2023, the 31-year-old slashed .241/.351/.435 against righties. His 115 wRC+ against righties in 2023 would have ranked third on the Diamondbacks, trailing only Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte.
Moreover, Diamondbacks hitters combined to hit an unsightly .218/.286/.390 in the DH slot in 2023. That works out to a .676 OPS, which was the third-worst mark in baseball. For reference, all National League teams combined for a .754 OPS in the DH slot last year.
Pederson is not a complete solution in that he won’t face lefties much, but he should be a fixture of the lineup against righties. That 115 wRC+ against righties in 2023 was actually better than that of Soler (111), and he is a more formidable option in that role than any of the Diamondbacks’ alternatives.
It is also worth noting that, while Pederson’s surface-level stats dropped from 2022 to 2023, his underlying metrics remained strong and, in some cases, even improved.
In 2023, Pederson posted a hard-hit rate of 52.2 percent, which ranked in the 96th percentile across the league. His 12.1 percent barrel rate was in the 79th percentile, and his 92.1 mph average exit velocity was in the 91st. Pederson would have led all of last year’s Diamondbacks hitters in each of those categories.
While continuing to make plenty of hard contact, Pederson also managed to cut down on strikeouts in 2023. His 20.9 strikeout rate was his lowest since 2018. His 13.4 percent walk rate, meanwhile, was his highest mark since his rookie year. On a rate basis, Pederson actually walked more and struck out less than both Martinez and Soler in 2023.
Pederson’s xwOBA actually fell just one point from .367 in 2022 to .366 in 2023, which suggests that he was basically just as good a hitter in 2023 as he was in 2022. (xwOBA is an all-encompassing hitting stat that is based on Statcast data and reads like an on-base percentage.)
More simply, Pederson’s expected OPS, based on Statcast data, was .846 in 2023. That’s a lot better than the .764 mark being printed on his baseball card — and actually quite comparable to that of Soler (.853) and Martinez (.893).
All that is to say: There is considerable evidence that Pederson was pretty unlucky in 2023. He consistently hit the ball hard, and he arguably had his best year ever from a swing-decision standpoint.
While none of that necessarily makes Pederson as valuable as Martinez or Soler, Pederson’s 2024 projections are actually comparable to both. ZiPS projects Pederson for a 115 OPS+ in 2024 compared to a 106 mark for Martinez and a 116 mark for Soler. Granted, Pederson’s projection is aided by the underlying assumption that he won’t get many at-bats against lefties. Neither Martinez nor Soler have such limitations.
So, again, we arrive back at the realization with which we started: Pederson is a limited player. He has a .622 career OPS against lefties, and he was a tick worse than that against south paws in 2023. There is a reason that the Diamondbacks were able to nab him for $12.5 million guaranteed, while both Martinez and Soler are widely expected to get guarantees of double, triple, or, in Soler’s case, potentially even quadruple that.
And that leads us to perhaps the biggest question surrounding this Pederson signing: How will the Diamondbacks handle the DH slot against left-handed pitchers? The answer, clearly, is not Pederson.
One option would be using those extra DH at-bats to get position players off their feet. Ketel Marte, for example, could start at DH every now and then instead of at second base. This path, of course, would mean tapping into whichever right-handed hitters are on the bench to fill those gaps in the field.
On that front, the organization has several right-handed hitting position players whose roles for 2024 are unclear. Among them are top shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar, infield prospect Blaze Alexander, third baseman Emmanuel Rivera and infielder Kevin Newman, who recently signed a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training. Newman’s track record against lefties stands out here, as he slashed .278/.349/.464 versus south paws in 2023 with the Cincinnati Reds.
Another option for the Diamondbacks would be acquiring a platoon partner for Pederson externally — perhaps a player who has some defensive value, too. Randal Grichuk, for example, could make sense. He can play all three outfield positions — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is currently the only right-handed hitting outfielder on the 40-man roster — and he owns a career .822 OPS against lefties, including a .995 mark in 2023. Obviously, signing someone like Grichuk would mean spending more money. It is unclear how much, if any, the club has left to spend.
Acquiring that right-handed hitter via trade could make sense as well. The Diamondbacks have more depth at several positions than they can use right now. Mathematically, there is no way for all of Rivera, Jace Peterson, Dominic Fletcher, Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith to make the club. Perhaps the Diamondbacks could find a way to flip a couple of players they don’t have room for one that would fit the roster better.
Until we know more about the team’s plan in the DH slot against lefties, it will be difficult to fully assess the acquisition of Pederson. What we can say for sure is that Pederson should add plenty of thump to the Diamondbacks’ lineup when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound. Given that around 72 percent of MLB innings are thrown by righties, that is a meaningful upgrade.
So, no, Joc Pederson is not J.D. Martinez. There is no heartwarming, I-once-hit-29-homers-in-62-games-with-the-Diamondbacks storyline here. But Pederson might be able to approximate Martinez’s production in 72 percent of situations. Maybe that’s not what you were looking for, Diamondbacks fans, but 72 percent of ideal is at least passable, right?
Top photo: Matt Kartozian/USA TODAY Sports
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