Stephen’s Mercury Notebook, Vol. 1: woeful defense, Nogic notes, shot variance

The Phoenix Mercury have had varied results, in process and indicative by record, throughout the two full weeks of the season.

They are currently 2-5, tied for third in the Western Conference, with a 108.9 offensive rating (6th), 107.6 defensive rating (10th) and 1.3 Net (8th).

Here are some of the things that have caught my attention over the most recent pocket of play.

Mercury have work to do defensively

Phoenix is a team whose identity is rooted in defensive dominance. Head coach Nate Tibbetts is defensive-minded at his core. A team with Alyssa Thomas hasn’t had a defense that wasn’t top-5 since – *checks notes* – 2017! Two-time WNBA Champion Kristi Toliver, who’s in charge of the Mercury defense this season, knows how important that side of the floor is. DeWanna Bonner’s also made an all-defensive team before.

That’s a defensive infrastructure in mindset, at its core, that will care a whole lot about that particular side.

Phoenix had the fifth-best defense last year, forcing turnovers on 18.9% of their possessions (4th), and were among the elite in terms of pressure – extending pick-up points as high up as anyone and shrinking the shot clock on opponents as often as anyone, too.

That was the foundational season of Tibbetts having a roster more aligned with his vision, as well as Thomas and Kahleah Copper establishing the standard. It’s what their tone in training camp was set off of, and that precedent has them not worried, even while acknowledging they have work to do on that end.

It certainly hasn’t all been bad, and Phoenix’s offense can do them some favors on that front too, but they’re gathering themselves on that end while also incorporating some new pieces as they approach things a little differently than they did last year in scheme.

So far, there’s been significantly less ball pressure on the extended pick-up’s front and more work being done in the half-court. I will be curious to see what that trend looks like when Monique Akoa-Makani makes her return to Phoenix, but the early portion has shown to be a little different so far.

This season, albeit with a smaller sample size, the Mercury’s defensive pressure looks different than how the team fared in their 2025 Championship-appearing season.

It’s a stark difference from what we’ve seen so far in 2026, and as Nate Tibbetts mentioned to me recently, “people have just been comfortable, that’s the most disappointing thing.”

Comfortability for an opponent was certainly not something used to describe the Mercury last season. This year, it’s been both as Tibbetts mentioned and as Thomas said to me, “Teams are coming in and getting anything and everything they want against us… for us it’s, we gotta decide if we want to defend.”

Phoenix hasn’t had the most fun on that end of the floor quite yet, and it’s in large part due to execution levels at the point of attack not being where they need it to be.

Phoenix has found pockets of ramping up the activity in meaningful moments, on the terms shown above. It hasn’t been sustained, though.

Kiana Williams spoke in detail with me about the importance of those layers of their defense and where they are in that.

The foundation is there, the awareness and personnel are in place as well. Now, it’s about building the chemistry and continuity with this season’s group.

When assessing a problem, generalizations are adverse to solutions. Taking a closer look, you see that there is a common denominator that resides on the shoulders of the Mercury’s point of attack defensive faction. Walk with me…

• Veronica Burton (5.10): 14 drives, 22 points created via (1.73 points per direct drive) – the 22 points created are her 2nd most in her career; her 27 points created mark in 2025 actually came against Phoenix on August 19.
• Olivia Miles (5.12): 13 drives, 15 points created via (1.25 points per direct drive) – 1.25 is her career-best mark, thus far.
• Brittney Sykes (5.19): 14 drives, 16 points created via (1.60 points per direct drive) – 1.60 is her best this season and 5th best mark of the last five seasons.
• Jordin Canada (5.24): 9 drives, 13 points created via (1.44 points per direct drive) – 1.44 is her 7th best mark over the last for seasons.

There are quite a few others (Gabby Williams, Rickea Jackson, Kelsey Plum, Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Rae Burrell, Marina Mabrey) that got their respective games off too much on their terms, with all listed above but Jackson, and saw wins against the Mercury in part due to their contributions.

Point of attack defense is paramount to anything scheme-related. There is no scheme if the ball isn’t contained well, and the Mercury are first in the W in blow-by’s conceded (58), blow-by’s conceded per game (8.3) and blow-by rate (27.5%).

Now, they aren’t the worst defense in the league defending drives, conceding the 2nd fewest per 75 minutes, and the 6th fewest points per game via drive at 27.6. However, the timing and contexts in which they’re conceding the first defensive domino to opponents, with these blow-by’s, is what’s dinged their defense and has led to instances like the 30 three’s conceded to opponents in a two-game span (15 vs LAS, 15 vs TOR).

It’s a small sample size of teams having played at most seven games, so two blips like that will weigh heavy.

Phoenix allowed 30+ three’s only 11 times last season, just 20.5% of their games. They’ve done so three times already this season through seven games. They also conceded double-digit three’s made in just 11 games last season, a quarter of their games played. This season, they’ve already conceded that four separate times.

It’s as simple for them as containing the ball and being much sharper in communication.

“Defense, it’s a want. It’s a will,” noted Thomas, and it can’t be incumbent on her and someone like Monique Akoa Makani, who should’ve been an All-Defensive Team member in 2o25 (and is likely to return for the Mercury sooner than soon) to uphold that standard.

Akoa Makani is someone who was near the top of the league in volume of instances picking the ball up full court and pressuring the ball, which was key to the Mercury’s defensive successes in 2025. They had a 0.778 points allowed per chance when she was picking up in the backcourt, and a 0.78 points allowed per chance mark when she did so and pressured the ball. That’s irreplaceable depths of impact there.

I also imagine a dial-up in minutes and impact is in-store from Valériane Ayai as she grows more comfortable, in tandem with Noémie Brochant, to assist Akoa Makani and bolster the Mercury’s point of attack faction.

When and how that hits will be the barometer for where Phoenix is operating and if they’re maximizing this group’s potential.

Early shot quality and variance

You often hear the term, “it’s a make-or-miss league,” tossed around quite a bit throughout basketball season on any given level of play.

That holds true in many regards, as the literal point of the game is to score more points than the opponent.

It’s also true when taking a look at things through a bit of an analytical lens, and assessing the trends of shot making and quality of shots taken, while using the eye test and applying what a team’s deemed shooting talent is.

Teams with more shooting talent can live with quality of shots that come on the lower (less in quality) side of the spectrum, while teams that do not have a ton of shooting talent will want to create as clean a look as possible.

A big thing for the Mercury last season was their three-point shooting, and the ability to both make and generate shots on the terms they desired – regardless of how an opponent may have looked to defend them.

This season, the results are yet to hit on the shots made dynamic, which leads me to believe positive regression is on the way.

I’ll also tap the sign on this being partially the result of the defense not having its footing. They’re not forcing as many turnovers as they’ve shown to, but even more-so, they haven’t been grabbing rebounds.

Phoenix has conceded the 2nd most points (89) via offensive rebounds, which has been key to slowing their offense down.

Cleaning up the execution of their game process will unlock better shot quality and rhythm into shots created. It feels more like a matter of when than if, but will be key to watch.

Jovana Nogic Is a problem

There is sure to be *plenty* more to say on the Jovana Nogić front as the season develops for the Mercury.

Jovana Nogić is shooting 8-for-10 from deep through her first 2 games in the WNBA.

She's averaging 17.5 PPG.

Instant impact, & yet another example of the Mercury's international assessment of talent, being aligned with their roster vision & fit complementary to style of play. pic.twitter.com/piiR0U1j5z

— Stephen PridGeon-Garner 🏁 (@StephenPG3) May 11, 2026

For now, what continues to stand out is the partnership in action with Alyssa Thomas (akin to, but still unique from, Thomas’s synergy with Sami Whitcomb) and what this development can mean for the Mercury as they get closer to full strength and work against half-court defenses and the coverages opponents throw at Thomas.

This, in addition to the ways Nogić can toggle to an off-ball creation role to add to the team’s spacing, functionality on the periphery, and even manipulating things in their favor from there, have her set up for success as a great fit in skill and how she processes the game.

Jovana Nogić has gotten a lot of attention for her shooting, rightfully so.

However, she also thinks the game through well from the periphery, adding layers to how Phoenix can manipulate defenses.

Spoke in detail (with film added below) about this on our Merc pod yesterday 👇🏾 https://t.co/gOpB9hErMV pic.twitter.com/Q16alDEjCt

— Stephen PridGeon-Garner 🏁 (@StephenPG3) May 12, 2026

She has challenges on the way in the form of working through an uptick in physicality to come off-ball as she’s gotten more attention, in addition to handling against much more pressure, then guarding her yard on the other end. However, it’s clear that she is a great fit for the Mercury to hopefully take some task off of Sami Whitcomb’s plate and give the Mercury guard group a much-needed boost.

14.7 PPG on 51.3% from deep on 5.3 attempts is quite the start.

tidbits

• Natasha Mack is fifth in the WNBA in offensive rebounds per game (3.3).
• Alyssa Thomas leads the WNBA in total assists (56), three-point assists (27), and assist points created (139), passes leading to shots (184), and potential assists (118).
• Alyssa Thomas (55 – 2nd) and Kahleah Copper (50 – 4th) are the only teammates in the top-10 for total free throw attempts.
• Alyssa Thomas has 13 three-point assists to Jovana Nogić (1st in the W) and Nogić is shooting 56.5% on three’s attempted from Thomas passes..