If you said prior to the start of the season that the Phoenix Mercury would finish in seventh place, I would have been surprised.

I had already accepted that there would be an inevitable learning curve with so much newness. In addition to 2024 being the league’s shortest scheduled training camp in history, the Olympic Break interruption added another layer with Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner, Kahleah Copper and Rebecca Allen all participating in Paris.

However, what I did not account for, and what ultimately led to the team’s record of 19-21 and a seventh-place finish, is games lost to injury.

There were just 12 games for this group with their starting unit intact, 30% of their 40-game schedule. In those 12 games, Phoenix went 7-4, including notable wins against Minnesota, Seattle and New York, all of which were at home.

In their planned starting units’ 157 minutes spent together, the Mercury had an offensive rating of 104.0, defensive rating of 96.4 and net of 7.6. 16 other lineups were featured for 140 or more minutes this season.

That’s quite a bit of impact lost in not having that lineup to feature for a longer stretch. And it seems the injury bug is following Phoenix into the postseason.

A missing piece

All season long, Rebecca Allen was the glue that made the identity the Mercury desired to play to, stick — especially from an ancillary role on the margins.

Offensively, she did all of the functional things within the team’s spacing principles, on a snappy cadence and promptness, to create advantages. She also made quick decisions with the ball in her hands to keep the offense in a flow.

Defensively, she enabled Kahleah Copper rest from guarding the best perimeter player, and allowed Natasha Cloud to defend forwards in cross matching, with her defensive versatility to guard down and play with size at the point of attack.

On Saturday, the team announced that Allen underwent successful surgery to address a lingering back injury and will miss the entire postseason. Not having her in the lineup, and all that comes with her presence, hurts the Phoenix Mercury in their matchup against the Minnesota Lynx.

How Phoenix and Minnesota match up

The Minnesota Lynx are dominant for two reasons.

They’re a team that forces opponents to defend both ball movement and player movement in a way that tugs at defenses’ rotations and responsibilities at a rhythmic cadence that leaves no room for error in a team’s shell.

They also force opponents to work to create space with how intact and active they are defensively. If the ball is stagnant or spacing is stagnant, they can load up in the gaps, especially at the nail paired with early low man activity. They also remain on a string when defending in rotation too — with discipline.

Here are two screenshots depicting a solid bit of what it’s looked like on the Mercury’s main offensive trigger: Brittney Griner post-ups.

Here is a clip of what the Lynx look like in rotation.

This is good ball movement. The Lynx are just on a true string in rotation, conceding nothing, then walling up late clock.

Below is what it’ll need to look like for the Phoenix Mercury in this context. This was Griner’s first possession of the 2024 season.

Notice Taurasi as the entry passer, with Copper spaced to the opposite 45 and Allen in the opposite corner.

The template for spacing in their positioning is great, who’s where in that is perfect, and the movement of the ball in succession from the pass out by Griner couldn’t be better. The challenge here is being sharp in this process on consistency, when getting into their bench rotations, especially now without Allen in the lineup.

Griner post touches will likely be the Mercury’s main trigger offensively for her to score, navigate to the line and make plays.

Additionally, her featuring as a playmaker in usage will be important too, past just out of the post, plenty of which was spoken on in this video.

Next, the Mercury playing off the advantages conceded by the defense when Kahleah Copper has the ball will be important.

This is a solid example of what she’s seen on a lot of her touches — loading the strong side block and the nail.

For the Phoenix Mercury, playing to their advantage on the second side with pin-in’s and cutting the nail to move the defense will be vital to their process.

Head coach Nate Tibbetts spoke earlier this season about the desire for spacing.

A great bit of the Mercury cycling through these dynamics over the flow of the games will bode majorly in whether they can snatch one of two in Minnesota, to earn the opportunity to play back in Footprint Center for a decisive game three.

Paint touches

Cloud and Copper will be vital in this series, as it’s a surefire way for them to get the Lynx in rotation from their shell. Watching for how frequently they can “get their feet muddy” before getting into play will be important, and some of it can be processed in unconventionally — as shown below in inverting their offense.

Finding ways to generate them independently, and in addition to Griner’s inevitable touches 12-15 times a game, could help to tilt the scale if they can do so effectively.

ATO’s

The Phoenix Mercury finished as the best team in the league executing after timeouts, with a 1.029 PPP, shooting 47.6% from the field and scoring, generally, 47% of the time, averaging 11.7 points per game from there — all league tops.

Conversely, Minnesota had the best after timeout defense, with a defensive PPP of just 0.810. They held opponents to just 39.6%.

That inner-game dynamic will be key to watch.

Copper’s playmaking

Watching for Kahleah Copper’s growth as a playmaker as teams continue to work to break her rhythm, will be key in this series as well.

Rebounding

Rebounding the basketball will be vital to the Mercury in this series. They simply have minimal margin for error with this Lynx team, especially without Allen.

Shrinking if not outright winning on the margins, getting up more shots on goal and getting out in transition more often would do them great solids in flow.

Big-time players

Lastly, the Phoenix Mercury have a slew of big-time — time on task — performers. Taurasi, Griner, Copper, and Cloud all have multiple playoff moments bookmarked in their respective careers, on the playoffs stage.

In a small setting series like WNBA round one, all it takes is just one game from one of them (or even Cunningham, their best three-point shooter and one of the best in the W this season) to guarantee a game in Phoenix. Then it’s a true dice roll.

X-Factor(s)

Natasha Cloud, who is effective against the soft defenses teams throw at her at times, will have to be as sharp as ever for Phoenix in this series. The team will need every bit of her playmaking impact to be on display.

Sophie Cunningham is one of just 18 players in the WNBA who took north of 170 three’s in 2024. Her 37.8% clip ranks fourth of that elite group. That’s the version of Cunningham that needs to show up as a laser on the margins to burn the Lynx in rotation, as well as her quick decision-making.

Also of note, just 17 lineups have logged north of 140 minutes together this season. Of those units, the Cloud/Taurasi/Copper/Cunningham/Griner group has an offensive rating of 107.0 (5th of that group) and a true shooting percentage of 60.2 (1st).

Monique Billings will need to step up in the absence of Allen, especially for her rebounding in minutes without Griner on the floor.

Prediction

With Rebecca Allen out of the lineup, I just see too many areas where the Mercury have no margin for error, especially against the sharpness, depth and health of the Minnesota Lynx.

These games will be played closely in score and possessions, but I predict the Lynx winning this one in two.