Myth buster: Agents opine on Coyotes’ ability to sign free agents

When the Coyotes signed forwards Travis Boyd and Liam O’Brien to contract extensions earlier this month, it brought their total players under contract in the NHL and in the overall system to 24. The maximum number of contracts for NHL teams is 50, although most teams generally leave a handful of slots open for flexibility throughout the season.

The Coyotes have nine restricted free agents in their ranks. They could take on a couple of bloated contracts with term from other teams at the March 21 trade deadline in order to also acquire assets. There is also a good chance that they will bring back unrestricted free agent goaltender Scott Wedgewood, so the number of players under contract will likely swell at least into the 30s. That means GM Bill Armstrong and his staff will still have some work to do this summer to fill out their roster.

An oft-heard national (and Canadian) narrative is that Armstrong will have trouble doing so in the free-agent market, given a trio of realities: 

• The Coyotes will play at Arizona State University’s 4,700-seat capacity arena for at least the next three seasons.
• They do not have a permanent arena solution. After being evicted from Gila River Arena by the City of Glendale (by June 30), they are awaiting word from the Tempe City Council on their proposed arena and entertainment district along Rio Salado.
• A string of financial issues with Glendale and in the 2020 playoff bubble have created the perception — real or imagined — that the Coyotes either do not have or do not want to spend the money necessary to do business in the NHL.

The Coyotes are aware of external perception and they are working hard to combat it, but will that even matter as Armstrong looks to fill out his roster this summer? It should be apparent in any analysis that the Coyotes will not be chasing big-name free agents this summer. They are in the midst of a rebuild. Big-ticket free agents don’t make sense right now.

It’s debatable whether the Coyotes will even pursue mid-tier free agents. The glut of players whom they will be looking to sign are lower-tier free agents.

I spoke to eight player agents to gauge their thoughts on this particular group, with some allowance for the possibility that the odd, mid-tier free agent could also sign here. All of the agents were granted anonymity so that they could speak freely.

Here are their responses.

Given the Coyotes’ current situation, do you think that they will have trouble filling out their NHL and organizational rosters?

One agent: It’s a multi-faceted question and I think it’s hard to answer it with too general a statement because every situation is unique. For some players, the opportunity to play an expanded role, compared to what might be available to them with more competitive teams could be attractive. There certainly is a subcategory of player like that. So whether that’s a player who has seen his role diminished over time and is trying to re-establish himself as a top-nine forward instead of being a fourth line forward, or it’s a veteran player who’s being viewed by other teams as maybe declining, I can envision circumstances where certain categories of players will view the opportunity to play an expanded role as a positive and maybe overcome some of the other considerations that might be present.

Another agent: They won’t have a problem. I think there are a lot of players out there, either for entry-level contracts or guys who want to keep playing in the NHL. I mean, the money’s pretty good, even at the low end. The league minimum is pretty good. It’s an opportunity to where you maybe play there a couple years and then hit unrestricted free agency where you have built up your résumé.

Another agent: They’ll fill out a roster. Obviously, people want to play in the NHL. There’s only so many jobs and people aren’t going to make the choice to sit at home on their couch as opposed to go play in the National Hockey League, even if it’s in front of 4,700 fans. Are they going to be first in line to get the guys? No, but then there’s going to be this sort of musical chairs and by the end of it, guys are going to be looking for opportunities to get a job and probably look at the fact that maybe their playing time or their opportunity with a club like the Coyotes might be a little higher, and they might jump on it.

Another agent: I think that they will be willing to spend money on the right player for the fit, but I think their real issue is they don’t want to enter a free-agent market that requires a lot of term on players; so multiple years on any free-agent contract. There could be a player or two that could be in the middle tier for sure; maybe even a higher tier that is willing to go there for a year or two, and maybe be a little overpaid from the market point of view, but willing to go there to help their transition or help with their youth coming along.

Another agent: They are going to get guys who need jobs. There’s 32 teams in the league. People will take the job. But will guys sign there voluntarily if they have other options? I don’t know about that.

Another agent: I don’t think it’s going to be as big a challenge as others think because I think those types of players that you’re talking about — and you’re exactly right that those are the types of players they’re looking for — from an agent’s perspective might have better opportunity in Arizona than elsewhere. For that reason, I really don’t think it’s a huge issue.

I also think the climate and the quality of life and lower cost of living and tax situation in Arizona, to me, more than offsets playing in a 4,000 or 5,000-seat arena. Now, if you tell me they’ll want to go after some higher profile players, that’s when I would think this bizarre home-arena arrangement would become a problem.

Another agent: I tend to disagree with anyone that says that they’ll not be able to fill out a roster. Let’s be honest. Money talks.

When you are advising your clients, what do you tell them when the Coyotes come calling?

One agent: I think the biggest fear is stability, long term. That middle to lower tier player is probably not doing more than a one- or two-year deal so in those cases you don’t get too wrapped up in it. When you start to talk about term, I think that’s when you really have to communicate with your clients that there is a, quote-unquote, unstable situation there and you could wake up any given summer and be packing for Quebec City or Houston or wherever. I think you just have to go into any longer-term relationship with your eyes open when you deal with Arizona right now.

Another agent: I would just say that the Arizona market has been and hopefully in the future will be a compelling market for the players, but under the current status of affairs, I think that there are going to be other markets that other players will want to play in.

Part of that is the commitment to success. The other part is this strangeness that the National Hockey League would actually even allow a team to play in a small arena, which from a brand standpoint seems like it’s going backwards 150 years. None of it makes any sense, to be frank with you. There’s different tiers of teams and it’s all based on quality of ownership and how the team is operated and the Coyotes have got the distinct pleasure of being in the bottom tier, based on the actions and the operating of the club. That’s reality. There’s no blustering there. That is reality.

Another agent: It depends on who the client is obviously and where he’s at in his career. If it’s an entry-level chance to play in the NHL, or if you can get a one-way which is more lucrative even at the low end, it’s a chance to parlay that as a springboard to somewhere else. I guess the concern would be term because I think the team is four or five years away from competing for a playoff spot so do you want to put your client in that situation?

Another agent: There’s still a lot of information that isn’t known with certainty in terms of the overall environment that is going to be present for the player. So number one, I would need to get more verified information than what’s currently available to know what the environment is going to be for everything from practice facilities to medical staff and training staff and resources available to the players above and beyond the fact that they’re playing in a non-traditional NHL arena.

Another agent: It’s a difficult question for sure because I’m not sure we have all of the information yet, but it’s not something we’d hide behind. I’ll say this: We have concerns. I can say that out loud. We have concerns that would need to be addressed, but we’ve had concerns with ownership in that marketplace for some time previous to this ownership.

What are some of those main concerns when advising your clients on the Coyotes?

One agent: Imagine having an 18-year-old kid that is eligible to get drafted. You and your wife made sacrifices for your child to be able to go play hockey, big sacrifices? You know the story.

So then your son gets drafted by the Arizona Coyotes and let’s say a year from now he ends up making the team. So let’s say you played on a junior team or a college team or you played in the Swedish league or the Finnish league and you played in front of 8,000 people. So you make the NHL and you’re going to play in front of 4,700?

The average career in the NHL is five and a half years so you might play a majority of your career in front of 4,700 people. Why would you ever want your client to be in that situation? Why would any player ever want to be in that situation? This falls on the National Hockey League. That’s how we view this as a group. This is a quality control issue. This is on the commissioners office and the other owners. How owners in the league are allowing the Arizona Coyotes and the NHL to do any of this is baffling. One would hope that from a quality standpoint and an integrity for the league standpoint, that they would all speak up because it’s not right. It’s bad for the league. It’s bad for the game and it definitely is a huge setback. I feel very strongly about it.

Another agent: The length of term of that temporary arena situation is unknown. Is there going to be an end-goal arena deal that gets done? These are things that we don’t know and may not know with any certainty or clarity when it gets to the point of free agency this summer. The most important thing would be to try and gather as much information as is verifiable in relation to the overall environment that the players are going to be working in. That encompasses all of the facilities, not just the main arena. And while we know that they’re going to be playing in a 4,700-seat arena, none of us knows what that’s going to be like because it’s unprecedented.

There’s some elements of it that might be good. There’s some elements of it that might not be good, but it’s certainly a unique situation that I haven’t really encountered other than perhaps with the New York Islanders when they were transitioning a little bit from Long Island to Brooklyn. There’s going to be an element of this that’s going to be different, but I really do believe that all of the surrounding parts of the environment are going to be critical in getting a player to be confident to commit to working in that environment for a period of time.

Another agent: I think there has to be a balance in spending on payroll. There’s a difference between not trying to compete for a championship and spending as little money as you can. There’s retooling, rebuilding, resetting and all the different terms that teams use when they’re trying to increase their organizational strengths to get them to the point of being a competitive organization. So I think trying to understand where on that spectrum the Coyotes are is an important part of the consideration for a free agent.

Another agent: I think one of the keys will be: What do you think of the coach? I’d want my player, if he was a UFA or coming out of college, to speak with the coach and kind of get a flavor for him, and also to ask other people: ‘What do you think of the coach?’ Because that’s who you’re playing for the next one, two or three years.

I would have one of my clients introduce my guy who is considering Arizona to guys on the team, and maybe have a chance to get a player’s perspective of the coach from those guys.

Another agent: To me, the arena doesn’t matter at all. It’s about whether the player is comfortable playing in that environment and willing to play in that environment for 41 games a year as opposed to what other options are. It’s all relative, right? Would you rather play in front of 4,700 fans in the National Hockey League or be in the American league in some other organizations? Everyone’s going to take the National Hockey League option, right?

To me, it’s a broader concern as far as the league. I’m worried as far as what happens if the Coyotes slip to the point where they’re not even able to sell that arena out and the environment slips and the novelty wears off after a year and a half and all of the sudden it’s a major drag on hockey related revenue and they’re losing a bunch of money. What then?

If the Tempe City Council votes to approve the Coyotes’ proposed 16,000-seat arena, does that change your optics on this franchise?

One agent: If they have the bigger plan in place before we get to the summertime, that helps smooth the waters a little bit, and then if they can guarantee that everything’s up to NHL standards, that’ll help, too, in terms of the temporary facility.

Another agent: I think it has to improve the optics, for sure, because then there’s a clear plan as to returning to a more normal NHL environment, but I assume that the majority of the contracts that the Coyotes are going to sign this summer are not going to extend to the point where the new arena is going to be actually usable. I think it goes back to that previous question of where on the spectrum are they in the development of the organization and the plan to get to be competitive.

Another agent: I mean, it would, but the problem for a high-end guy is you’re still not going to have a very good team for the next three or four years. Winning 16 to 20 games wears thin after a while. There’s only so much golf you can play in Arizona. So I would only look at it for my guys for the short term. The arena may help, but it may not help until it is actually built.

Another agent: I guess you’d say yes and you’d certainly feel good about that. At the same time, with the amount of stops and starts that you’ve seen over the years in places like Long Island, just because things have been approved, I still probably wouldn’t feel great until I actually saw a shovel in the ground. There’s still always that little bit of worry. Are they really going to build it just because it’s been approved? Do they have the funding, etc.? I would feel much better when construction was actually taking place as opposed to just the vote.

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