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When the San Diego Padres traded for highly coveted starting pitcher Dylan Cease last week, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo was asked how he felt about it.
Lovullo said what many D-backs fans were probably thinking. “I wish the best players would quit coming to the NL West.”
Several days later, reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell signed a two-year contract with the San Francisco Giants, joining forces with the 2023 NL Cy Young runner-up, Logan Webb.
Lovullo echoed his previous response.
“Everybody seems to wanna come to the NL West for some reason,” he said, smiling. “I mean, is there other leagues? Other divisions? Come on.”
Now entering a franchise record eighth season as manager of the Diamondbacks, Lovullo knows all about playing in the NL West.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 10 of the last 11 division titles, and they committed more than $1 billion in free agent contracts this offseason, including $700 million to megastar Shohei Ohtani.
The Giants and Padres, despite disappointing 2023 seasons, consistently operate in the top half of the league in payroll. The former won three World Series titles in the 2010s and produced a 100-win season as recently as 2021. The latter went to the NLCS in 2022, and its roster is still teeming with star talent. And then there are the Rockies, who, granted, are a far cry from every other team in the division.
The Diamondbacks are set to the enter the 2024 season with a franchise record payroll, and, yet, that payroll still ranks last in their division. This is life in the NL West.
“We embrace it,” Lovullo said last week. “I don’t hear one player complain about it. I don’t hear one player talk about payrolls externally. What I hear is what we got to take care of. These players know what’s in front of them. And when they do things right, we’re gonna be just fine.”
With Lovullo’s words as the backdrop, let’s take a closer look at what the Diamondbacks are up against in 2024. We’ll go in order of projected wins (via Fangraphs), which, of course, means we’re starting with the Dodgers.
The Dodgers did not exactly look like a team of destiny in the Seoul Series earlier this week. Had a ball not gone right through Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth’s glove, in fact, they might have gotten swept.
Nonetheless, the Dodgers had a monstrous offseason. They added the best player available in Ohtani, a frontline starting pitcher in Tyler Glasnow, and arguably the most highly sought after pitcher on the market in Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Granted, neither Glasnow nor Yamamoto pitched especially well this week — and there is plenty of drama surrounding Ohtani right now, due to an alleged theft by his former interpreter — but all signs point to the Dodgers being outrageously talented. Expectations are through the roof.
Of course, for as amazing as this roster is on paper, it is not foolproof. Health in the rotation will be important, particularly as the playoffs draw near. Glasnow has never thrown more than 120 innings in a season. Paxton has not reached 100 innings since 2019. Walker Buehler is returning from his second Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw, whom they re-signed in the offseason, is not expected back from a shoulder injury until the second half of the year. There is also the question of how good Yamamoto will be; the early returns have not been promising.
Another question for the Dodgers is their infield defense. After seeing Gavin Lux struggle at shortstop this spring, manager Dave Roberts opted to move Lux to second base and Mookie Betts to short. Betts played 16 games at shortstop last year, but at no point in his professional career has that been his primary position. Third baseman Max Muncy, meanwhile, will turn 34 in August and seems to be on the decline defensively.
Granted, any criticism of this Dodgers roster somewhat feels like nitpicking. If they score seven runs a game, it won’t matter much if their infield defense is subpar or their rotation gets banged up. This team is probably going to coast into the playoffs no matter what. The real question here is what happens when they get there.
After their remarkable World Series run last year, the Diamondbacks had a busy offseason. They addressed their most pressing needs, adding a starting pitcher (Eduardo Rodriguez), a third baseman (Eugenio Suárez) and more thump in the designated hitter slot (Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk).
Per Fangraphs, the Diamondbacks project as the second-best team in the NL West behind the Dodgers; the margin, however, is small. Both the Giants and Padres’ projections are within one win of that of Arizona.
I know what you are thinking: How is it possible that the Diamondbacks won 84 games last year, made clear improvements over the offseason and now own a win projection that is less than their final win total last year?
There are a few factors at play. First, the Diamondbacks were actually outscored by 15 runs as a team last year. Mathematically, that is indicative of an 80-win team. Second, while projections systems do foresee improvements for a few players, they uniformly expect regression from several key contributors, including Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Geraldo Perdomo and newcomer Eduardo Rodriguez.
On the flip side, the Diamondbacks’ roster has plenty of upside. Alek Thomas, Gabriel Moreno and Brandon Pfaadt are viable breakout candidates. Perhaps Suárez and Pederson could get back to the hitters they were in 2022, when they posted OPS+ marks of 129 and 146, respectively. Maybe Jordan Lawlar, the team’s top prospect, could find his way to the majors early in the season and play a big role.
It is not all that hard to envision a scenario in which the Diamondbacks win 90 games. However, a return to the postseason is far from a sure bet. According to Fangraphs, they have a 46.3 percent chance to make the playoffs this year.
Historically, the Diamondbacks have struggled to string together competitive seasons. They have not made the postseason in back-to-back years since 2001-02.
What had been a fairly uneventful offseason for the San Francisco Giants has quickly changed course in recent weeks. Since Feb. 18, the Giants have signed Snell, third baseman Matt Chapman and designated hitter/outfielder Jorge Soler.
This Giants’ roster is clearly more talented than the one that won 79 games last year. In the rotation, they have one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball in Snell and Webb. Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, meanwhile, add depth and upside, although the former is not expected back from Tommy John surgery until midseason. Alex Cobb was an All-Star last year and seems to be relatively close to returning from offseason hip surgery. Kyle Harrison, meanwhile, is widely viewed as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in baseball.
The lineup lacks a clear star-level position player, but Chapman and Soler add much-needed thump. Jung Hoo Lee has yet to play a real major-league game, but he has impressed this spring. The bullpen was fine last year and figures to be fine again.
This team is not without questions, of course. Shortstop is one of the biggest ones; former Diamondbacks veteran Nick Ahmed has had a great spring and could get the majority of the reps. Patrick Bailey, the team’s primary catcher, did not hit much last year. As alluded to earlier, Lee is not a sure bet.
Fangraphs pegs San Francisco for 83.2 wins, less than half a win below the D-backs. With their resurgent offseason, the Giants look like a legitimate wild card contender.
Dylan Cease was a nice add for the Padres, but there is no getting around the fact that they lost more than they gained this offseason, at least in terms of major-league-ready talent.
The Padres traded one of the best position players in baseball in Juan Soto, and they lost both Snell and star closer Josh Hader in free agency. Along the way, they also dealt sure-handed center fielder in Trent Grisham in the Soto trade and lost a pair of starters with sub-4.00 ERAs in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo.
The fact that Padres are still legitimate playoff contenders speaks to how talented last year’s team was. The 2023 Padres only won 82 games, but their plus-104 run differential ranked third in the National League, trailing only the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves. Losing 23 of 32 one-run games was a big reason for their underwhelming end-of-season record.
Nonetheless, the Padres now have one of the better starting rotation trios in baseball with Cease, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. After that, there is quite a bit of uncertainty.
Likewise, the top of the Padres’ lineup is stacked with impactful position players in outfielder Fernando Tatís Jr. and infielders Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim. Getting bounce-back seasons from Tatís and Machado, both of whom are coming off down years offensively, would be a big development. Health will be particularly important for San Diego, given the top-heaviness of the roster.
Fangraphs gives the Padres a 40.4 percent chance of making the postseason in 2024. That is less than half their playoff odds a year ago at this time, but a return to the postseason in 2024 is anything but far-fetched.
Things aren’t great in Rockies Land. After winning 59 games last season, the Rockies are bringing back nearly the same squad for 2024.
It is hard to envision the team staying relevant in a postseason race for long; the big question in Colorado this year is which youngsters will separate themselves as key contributors for the future.
Nolan Jones sure looked like one last year. After being acquired from the Cleveland Guardians in a trade last offseason, Jones slashed .297/.389/.542 in 106 games in 2023 with 20 homers and 20 stolen bases. He was the best player on his team by a wide margin, and he will probably show up on MVP ballots if he can replicate his 2023 success over a full season.
Ezequiel Tovar is another player to watch in 2024. He had a subpar 77 OPS+ in his first full season in the majors, but he is also an elite defender at shortstop. Still only 22 years old, Tovar could blossom into an above-average regular with some more seasoning at the plate.
Another big question for the Rockies in 2024 is with regard to veteran infielder Kris Bryant, whom they signed to a seven-year, $182 million contract prior to the 2022 season. The deal has been disastrous so far, as Bryant has played just 122 games in his first two seasons in Colorado due to a variety of injuries. When he has been on the field, he has posted a mediocre 93 OPS+. Getting something — anything — from Bryant in 2024 and beyond would be big for Colorado.
Top photo: Rob Schumacher/The Republic
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