5 observations from Phoenix Suns' first bumpy stretch without Chris Paul

Sunday’s matinee showdown with the Utah Jazz was the type of game the Phoenix Suns usually win. It was at home, where they were 26-6 entering the day. It was against a winning team, which they were a league-best 21-7 against. And it involved crunch-time, a special trigger that unlocked an NBA-best 25-3 record whenever pulled.

But for the first time since Dec. 27, the Suns lost back-to-back games, and the absence of Chris Paul was immediately identified as the reason why.

In a 118-114 loss to the Jazz, the Suns fell to 1-2 in their first three games without the Point God. Three games is an admittedly small sample size, but a few observations about the good, the bad and the ugly provide proper context for what we’ve seen.

1. The Point Book lineups have been fine…

With or without Aaron Holiday over the last three games, the Suns have predictably opted for Point Book lineups, moving Cam Johnson into the starting lineup and giving Devin Booker the reins of the offense. It exerts a heavy toll on Book to play big minutes all while leading the team in scoring and facilitating, but the returns have been pretty encouraging.

Since being moved into this new but familiar role coming out of the All-Star break, Booker is averaging 28.3 points, 8.0 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals per game on .484/.350/.889 shooting splits. He’s racked up 24 assists to 11 turnovers, and for the most part, the offense has continued to hum with him playing the role of primary playmaker.

“I think it’s my job to make sure everybody’s involved,” Booker said. “Especially starting at the point guard spot and the ball being in my hand a lot. I feel like a broken record from my first few years, but just trying to find that balance between scoring it and making plays for others. I’m not really going into it thinking, ‘All right, this is my time to pass,’ or, ‘This is my time to score.’ Just watching the game after and see where I could get somebody else going or see if I could attack in this certain spot or that certain spot.”

In a resounding win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, Point Book shined, feeding Phoenix’s 3-point shooters against a defense that collapses on the bigs’ dives to the rim. It wasn’t as smooth against the New Orleans Pelicans, as former Suns assistant Willie Green had his team blitz Booker, mixing it up with switches to keep the offense guessing. Missing Paul, Holiday and Cam Payne certainly didn’t help when the Pelicans forced the ball out of Book’s hands.

“I didn’t think we responded well to the blitzes consistently, I should say,” Williams said. “But like I said, without Chris, without Cam, without Aaron, we knew we were going to have a game like this. Just trying to figure it out as you go.”

The Suns are fully aware that with Paul and Payne out, defenses are going to throw a ton of different looks at Booker to get the ball out of his hands. Williams noted there have been quite a few instances where Booker made the correct skip pass, but the shots just didn’t fall. The numbers back that up, since Booker has averaged 7.5 potential assists over the last three games.

The big area for improvement in Williams’ eyes was providing better spacing when opponents blitz Booker and attacking defenses with paint-to-great looks.

“It’s knowing what’s coming and getting ahead of the storm.” Williams said. “I didn’t think we did a good job of reading what New Orleans was doing. There were times where they blitzed, there were times where they were in coverage, and typically, we pick that up pretty quickly. And again, we typically have another ball-handler on the floor so Book’s not in that situation time and time and time again. The other night, it was him all night, and so that put us in some tough spots.”

Booker said for his part, he can be better about not holding onto the ball for so long.

“Out of those blitzes, they have two on the ball, and then I have to do a better job of getting it out quicker, and then everybody play free,” he said. “We have the talent to do that, we have the playmakers to do that, and we have the players to do it. So it’s just going to be communication amongst each other, and I’m sure we’ll figure it out.”

Although the Jazz mostly played in drop coverage, the Suns fared much better in those respects offensively. Every starter scored in double figures and shot 50 percent or better from the floor — a growing sign of comfort with this new lineup.

The Suns starters today played 25 mins. Had a 153.2 Offensive Rating & 138.3 Defensive Rating. +14.9.

The next 5 man group played just 5 mins. It had an 81.8 O & 210.0 D.

— David (@theIVpointplay) February 27, 2022

“Guys are getting in there attacking,” Booker said. “I think you’ve seen a lot of that tonight. We had Cam Johnson bring it up a lot tonight, Jae [Crowder] bring it up a lot tonight. So everybody’s getting comfortable, everybody’s getting used to it, and they’re trying to find ways to get me off the ball and not have to work so hard.”

Despite being 1-2 over the last three games, the Suns’ new Point Book starting lineup is actually a +14 in 62 minutes together. That five-man group has shot 59.1 percent from the floor and 47.6 percent from 3-point range together.

In fact, the offense remains as potent as ever. The new starting five boasts a +13.0 Net Rating, a 63.1 assist percentage and a 2.93 assist-to-turnover ratio. The Suns’ preferred starting lineup, with Paul in Johnson’s place, has posted a +6.6 Net Rating, 63.7 assist percentage and a 2.74 assist-to-turnover ratio. Obviously one lineup’s numbers are far more impressive since they’ve come over a much longer period of time, but the point still stands: This five-man unit hasn’t lost much on the offensive side of the floor so far.

“I think at times our pace is really high, which is going to be a strength of that lineup,” Cam Johnson said. “And just continuing to move the ball. I think we found some easy shots throughout the course of the game, high-percentage shots.”

Learning to distribute and keep the offense churning without Chris Paul has been a process, but in terms of the starting five, Point Book lineups have gotten the job done. Jae Crowder went as far as saying it’s been good for Phoenix to try and figure all this out on the fly, even while being down a couple of ball-handlers.

“At times, you see we struggled at that, but at times, we figured it out,” he said. “The ball is hopping, the ball’s moving, finding energy, finding good shots. I think it’s good for us to go through this.”

2. …but the bench unit has not

As much as Point Book has proven to be a viable short-term solution in its own right, it’s not a sustainable long-term solution, nor is it necessarily good for the team in short-term either. The reason? With Cam Johnson in the starting lineup, Phoenix’s bench unit has been running on fumes.

Not having Paul and Payne obviously hurts the backcourt depth. The game Holiday missed put even more pressure on the shorthanded rotation, which got a full-dosage reminder of why Elfrid Payton is unplayable. But even with Holiday back on Sunday, the difference in the Jazz loss was glaring when Phoenix’s bench got creamed by Utah’s reserves:

• Jazz bench: 43 points, 18-31 FG, 10 assists
• Suns bench: 11 points, 4-19 FG, 5 assists
• Jordan Clarkson by himself: 22 points, 10-17 FG, 3 assists

Every Suns starter finished with a double-digit, positive plus/minus in a game Phoenix lost by 4 points, except for Booker and Mikal Bridges, who logged the most minutes and thus spent the most time playing with the reserves. Torrey Craig (-15), JaVale McGee (-20), Aaron Holiday (-12), Landry Shamet (-2) were as bad as the numbers sound.

Over the last three games, the Suns’ bench has posted a -3.6 point differential, shooting 32.4 percent from the field and 25.8 percent from 3. Those numbers are putrid.

Suns starters vs. Suns bench

Game in a nutshell pic.twitter.com/rlbjiHE93d

— Matt Petersen (@TheMattPetersen) February 27, 2022

The Suns are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is being put to the test right now. Murphy’s Law continues to overshadow the Law of Averages for Landry Shamet. Playing on a bum ankle didn’t help continue the momentum of Holiday’s incredible start in Phoenix, and it’s moments like these that not trading for Eric Gordon at the trade deadline stings.

Payne’s return and a healthier Holiday will help alleviate the bench concerns, especially since Payne could move Johnson back into the second unit, giving the reserves a bit more scoring punch.

3. Suns are giving up too many offensive rebounds

This is completely unrelated to Chris Paul, but a recurring theme over the last two games has been one of Phoenix’s few Achilles heels: giving up offensive rebounds and second-chance points.

“I know we was ball-watching a little bit,” Deandre Ayton said after the Pelicans loss. “Them dudes got us on the O-boards in some moments when we were trying to make a run, or we was getting stops but it was just the 50-50 balls, or they’re running two [7-]footers and they got a little bit of an advantage down there a few times.”

Against New Orleans, the Suns gave up 16 offensive boards and 15 second-chance points. It got worse against another super-sized center tandem on Sunday, as Phoenix gave up 14 offensive rebounds leading to 27 second-chance points — the most scored by a Suns opponent all season.

“This is two games in a row we’re playing against bigger guys,” Williams said. “They had 14 [offensive boards]. That’s deflating when you get a stop and you give up that many extra possessions, and then you couple that with 17 3s made. So we have to do a much better job of — especially when you’re blitzing in pick-and-roll, it exposes you on the backside. The 3s and the offensive rebounding put us in a bit of a bind.”

We’ve identified this potential weakness before, but it’s really come to the forefront since the All-Star break. On the season, the Suns surrender 13.3 opponent second-chance points per game, which ranks 19th in the NBA. Over the last three games, that number has shot up to 17.7 points per game, which would be dead-last by a wide margin.

Pinning all of that on Deandre Ayton, who is only averaging 6.7 rebounds per game over the last three contests, is unfair. Opponents are targeting him in the pick-and-roll to force switches or generally pull him out to the perimeter, leaving Phoenix’s wings and guards to deal with the rolling big on the glass.

But Ayton has also never been proficient at boxing out, typically preferring to use his size, length and strength to out-reach or out-jump people for loose boards. There were several instances where he simply didn’t put a body on Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside or Jonas Valanciunas, and they made the Suns pay for it:

Even in the cases where it was a bad shot (like that airball from the corner) or he got switched onto the ball-handler (Rudy Gobert’s multiple rebounds over Jae Crowder), Ayton’s lack of second effort to get back in the play sticks out like a sore thumb. Too often he found himself in no man’s land on pick-and-rolls, caught between helping on the ball-handler without really contesting the shot versus sticking with the rolling big to prevent putbacks.

Ayton needs to be better, and the Suns’ team rebounding needs to be better in those situations where he’s pulled away from the rim in the pick-and-roll. Both can be true.

4. Time to rely on defense again

The Suns have been a top-10 offense all year, but the defensive end is where they’ve been truly elite. Before the All-Star break, they boasted the NBA’s third-stingiest defense, with a 105.4 defensive rating. In the three games since, that number has skyrocketed to 114.1.

Again, this is small sample size theater we’re dealing with, but the reason this team has struggled lately is not because of the Point Book lineups or the offense; it’s been the defense, Phoenix’s main calling card for the last two years.

“It’s a lot of back and forth today, and we don’t like to do that,” Booker said after the Jazz loss. “Usually we like to guard and pride ourselves on defense.”

In the last two defeats, the Suns have given up 117.5 points per game. The third-quarter defense in particular has been a cause for alarm, with the Pelicans scoring 42 points on Friday and the Jazz following it up with 38 on Sunday.

Monty Williams noted his team’s uncharacteristic lapses on the defensive end could be a product of not having any practice time lately, Paul’s absence and a number of other things. But Williams is more concerned with the specific mistakes than making excuses. From going under screens on Utah’s shooters to not closing stops with a defensive rebound, Phoenix needs to tap back into its identity on that end.

“Two games in a row we’ve given up close to 40 points in the third quarter,” Williams said. “That’s not been something that we have come accustomed to here. The third-quarter defense has to get a lot better.”

As much as the Suns hide Paul on worse perimeter players on defense, they’re certainly missing his communication and penchant for calling out the opponent’s plays.

“He knows pretty much every action another team is going to run,” Johnson said. “So he sniffs it out really early. It’s that vet savvy that he has. Not that the other guys don’t know, but that’s really a big strength of his, especially at this point in his career, is just knowing everything that the other team is going to run.”

“I think he does a great job of just communicating, putting guys in position,” Crowder added. “I think his leadership is missed. Obviously he’s a hell of a leader for our team, so just another voice on the court who knows what he’s talking about.”

Without Paul, finding ways to turn defense into offense is key. Against OKC, the Suns won the battle of points off turnovers 23-18. They proceeded to lose that same battle 17-6 against New Orleans and 15-10 against Utah. For a team that averages 17.4 points off turnovers per game and only gives up a league-best 14.1 points off turnovers a night, their recent averages (13.0 points off turnovers and 16.7 opponent points off turnovers) need to flip back again.

5. Perspective is important

If it seems like it’s all doom and gloom, it’s not. The Suns may have lost two consecutive games for the first time in two months, but they’re missing their two preferred options at point guard, they missed Holiday for one of those games and Payton is unplayable.

Losing to a very good and healthy Jazz team, without Paul and Payne, with the bench struggling that bad, in a game where the Suns had a chance to force overtime on the final possession? It’s really not cause for alarm.

Even the guy who threw the game-deciding turnover said he and his teammates are keeping their heads held high.

“I just embrace the ups and downs of basketball, especially at this time of the year when you’re trying to tune up everything, gearing up into the final stretch of the season,” Crowder said. “You gotta embrace situations like this, and I think this is a good game for us, to be down, fourth quarter, and fight back and give ourselves a chance to win, knowing we can — especially with how the game was going up until that point. So it’s good for us to go through it.”

It should be mentioned that the Suns are one of only three teams that had to play a back-to-back immediately coming out of the All-Star break. That meant they couldn’t practice on Saturday, and since Sunday’s game was an early matinee contest, they didn’t have shootaround or even a full two days in between Friday and Sunday’s games.

“Three out of four [days], basically three out of three-and-a-half, that’s a tough scenario, especially without two of your top point guards,” Williams said. “I’m proud of our guys, the way we battled. If we could have gone 2-1 in this scenario, it would’ve been a huge win for us. We went 1-2 — not what we wanted, but I think we’re learning a lot about our team. We’re learning how much we appreciate Chris and Cam and the guys that handle the ball a ton, but all of this stuff is gonna make us stronger.”

While the Suns experiment with different lineups, compete against a healthy Jazz squad and get a closer look at what guys can and can’t do, they haven’t lost significant ground on their Western Conference lead. Thanks to the Golden State Warriors’ collapse Sunday night, Phoenix still holds a 6-game lead over the Dubs for the NBA’s best record.

Now, Phoenix is off until Wednesday against a tanking Portland Trail Blazers team that’s lost its last two games by a combined 69 points, followed by a New York Knicks squad that’s lost nine of its last 10. The schedule is still in the Suns’ favor, and even when they take their lumps, it’s all in service of the ultimate goal.

“I wouldn’t even call it adversity, just learning,” Booker said. “These are big moments for us, and I think later in the season and when it comes to playoff time, all these moments are going to help us. We’re learning a lot — close-game situations, learning how to close a quarter, controlling the pace, controlling the ball without Chris in the game, if teams ever try to take him out when he comes back. So there’s a lot to learn. And we’re going to do that.”

The Suns rarely lose back-to-back games, and Booker said their “antennas are up” for the next one against Portland. With Holiday having a few more days to get healthy and Payne hopefully nearing his return, don’t be surprised if this bumpy patch is just a blip on the radar.