How the Suns can continue to shrink Anthony Edwards' superhuman production in playoff matchup vs. Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards finished the 2023-24 season as a top-15 scorer on a top-five NBA team, but you wouldn’t know that if you’d only seen his three games against the Phoenix Suns.

As we covered in our five keys to the series, the Minnesota Timberwolves couldn’t have asked for a worse first-round matchup, and one of the biggest reasons is how well Phoenix’s defense has limited a rising superstar.

When asked about the team’s mindset following Sunday’s 125-106 thrashing at the Suns’ hands, it was telling to hear Edwards respond (via Dane Moore), “Figure out a way to beat Phoenix, ’cause we ain’t been able to do it. So that’s the mindset.”

Not only are the Wolves 0-3 with a -15.7 point differential against the Suns, but Phoenix has found a way to shrink Ant-Man’s super-strength production down to size. The chasm between his numbers on the season and his numbers in three games against Phoenix is massive:

• Ant this season: 25.9 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.1 TOs, 46.1 FG%, 35.7 3P%
• Ant vs. Suns: 14.3 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.3 TOs, 31.0 FG%, 27.3 3P%

Three games is a small sample size, but limiting Edwards to 43 total points on 42 shots is significant, especially since the Suns have also bottled up his passing, holding him to 11 assists while forcing him into 10 turnovers.

Among all 29 Wolves opponents this season, Edwards has posted his third-lowest scoring average, third-lowest shooting percentage and sixth-lowest assist average against Phoenix. Minnesota has also been outscored by a staggering 63 points in Ant’s 98 minutes against the Suns.

However, even with Edward’s 13-point, 5-turnover, 7-shot attempt night still fresh in everyone’s minds, none of that matters now. The regular season is over, and the playoffs are a different beast.

“I know that’s not gonna happen moving forward, and he’s gonna be super, super aggressive to get downhill and knock down shots,” Kevin Durant told SneakerReporter’s Travis Singleton. “You could tell he’s trying to get guys involved a little bit more, he’s playing a little bit more point guard, but I expect him to go out there and be the killer that he is and put pressure on the defense.”

Talked to KD about the Suns holding Anthony Edwards to 7 shots today and what to expect from Ant Man heading into their playoff series. pic.twitter.com/13xZbUG6xD

— SneakerReporter (@SneakerReporter) April 14, 2024

The obvious question is, how have the Suns defended Anthony Edwards so well? And what can they carry over into the playoffs?

How the Suns have contained Anthony Edwards

The first two times Ant reached the playoffs, Karl-Anthony Towns was more of the focal point heading into the series. After incredible performances against the Denver Nuggets last year, Edwards cemented himself as “that dude.” This will be the first playoff series where he is truly the unquestioned center of his opponent’s game plan.

For a Minnesota team that ranks 17th in offensive rating, and with Towns coming off a knee injury that sidelined him for a month, Edwards has to do a lot of heavy lifting in this series to make sure the Wolves keep pace. All season long, he’s been a source of offense thanks to his ability to get in the lane and make things happen.

Suns coach Frank Vogel has referred to him as “one of the most dynamic players in the world” and “a terror” when he gets downhill.

“He’s a problem, he can do it all,” Vogel said. “He’s arguably the most athletic guy in the NBA, can shoot it, he can put it on the floor, really improved his passing. Play in pick-and-roll, play in the post, play off pindowns, play in the open court. There’s not a whole lot that he can’t do.”

Overall, the Suns have done a superb job on Edwards, but let up for one second and he’ll burn you with an off-ball cut, a drive to the rim in semi-transition, or a nifty finish through traffic with just an ounce of daylight:

“He’s tough,” Durant said. “He moves so smooth and effortlessly that a lot of times, he can beat double- and triple-teams.”

Ant missed some decent looks in the clip above, but on the season, he’s shot 69 percent at the rim, which ranks in the 85th percentile at his position, per Cleaning The Glass. He’s also in the 76th percentile in frequency of shots at the rim, so he’s a constant threat Phoenix needs to keep out of the paint.

One-on-one ball containment hasn’t exactly been a strong suit for these Suns, but against Edwards, they’ve managed to completely block off his driving lanes by maintaining their tight shell and always showing a crowd.

Edwards finished with the seventh-most drives of any player this season, per NBA.com, and had a points percentage of 72.9 on those drives. Against Phoenix, that points percentage plummeted to 29.6. After the Suns’ 97-87 win over Minnesota — the Wolves’ worst offensive performance of the season — Vogel alluded to it being a team effort in keeping Ant out of the paint with gap help.

“I watched our game from when we played these guys earlier in the season, and it was night and day,” Vogel said. “Just night and day, how spread apart our defense was. We were not a tight shell. And we’ve really grown. It takes time. It’s habits and film sessions and practice and shell defense and drill work and just continuing to pound the rock until the habits really start to form.”

The habits have certainly formed, making Ant’s life hell by providing gap help to Edwards’ right and left behind the point-of-attack. Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Royce O’Neale, Eric Gordon and the recently-extended Grayson Allen have all been tasked with guarding Ant on-ball, but it matters less who that defender is if there’s someone on either side ready to help suffocate driving lanes.

“You can’t force him to do nothing, you know what I’m saying?” Durant said. “You just gotta win the numbers game, just have more players on him, two or three guys in this area. We’re not selling out to stop him, but you show presentation like there is more help than it is, and hopefully that deters him a bit.”

Freezing some of those plays in the clip above, the Suns almost always have a triangle formation with one point-of-attack defender up top on Ant, then two help defenders shading over on either side. In some situations, it’s a diamond or even a pentagon, with additional help defenders on the back line to protect the rim:

Ball denial helps whenever possible too. Just watch as Devin Booker shades all the way over to Naz Reid’s right hand and forces him back to his left, knowing the play is designed to get Edwards the ball in a dribble handoff:

The Suns’ hot starts have discouraged Edwards and the Wolves from clawing their way back into games, but forcing actions away from Ant reinforces that feeling of disillusionment. If he’s not getting the ball consistently, the Suns go up big, and every time he does get the ball he’s hit with multiple defenders, it’s hard to persevere through all that frustration.

That formula is how the Suns held Edwards to 7 field-goal attempts in their last matchup, and it’s how his average shot attempts (19.7 per game) have taken a nosedive against Phoenix (14.0 per game).

“I mean, you watched it,” Edwards told reporters when asked about only taking seven shots. “I ain’t gotta talk about it, everybody seen it. They just double-teamed me all night.”

The Suns have been able to key in on Ant’s occasional tunnel vision when he gets in the lane. Edwards only ranks in the 41st percentile in drive passout rate, so when he drives into the trees, he’s either forced tough shots or turned the ball over.

“Gotta make the read like one beat earlier, ’cause if I get too deep, they get their hands on the ball when I’m trying to pass it,” Edwards told reporters. “There’s no driving lanes. Y’all see it, it’s tough.”

Phoenix’s bigs have also done a great job of playing at the level in pick-and-rolls to force Ant off the ball early.

“The whole night, we had guys behind talking and letting us know which direction the help was, giving us confidence to be up in the ball ’cause we knew someone had our back behind,” Grayson Allen said after the April 5 matchup. “So it wasn’t just one-on-one, it was everyone on the court guarding him and our rotations being good behind that too.”

By staying true to their shell defense, the Suns are placing an enormous amount of faith in their ability to recover back to shooters once Edwards gets off the ball, but they’ve done well in their first three meetings. Watch Durant and then Beal show help on Edwards before scurrying back to their man to contest from 3:

This strategy seems risky against a Timberwolves team that ranks third in 3-point percentage, but it’s paid off so far. Minnesota attempting the seventh-fewest 3s in the league helps, but the Suns have done an excellent job guarding the 3-point line, holding the Wolves to 29.3 percent shooting from deep.

It’s the type of defensive cohesion Phoenix has struggled with against certain opponents, but has had little problem with against Minnesota. Contain Edwards on the perimeter, load up on gap help, and force guys like Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid and even KAT, to a certain extent, to beat you.

“It takes everybody on the defensive end, 1-5, whoever’s starting on the ball, and he gotta trust us to have his back, and we trust him on the ball,” O’Neale said. “So it’s a team effort.”

Part of that collective effort is preying on Edwards’ frustration with missed calls. Ant is a physical presence in the paint, but the Suns have made sure he feels the help defense every time he gets past the initial defender. Play this clip with volume, and you’ll hear Ant continuously crying out for a whistle:

“Foul the shit outta him!” Beal laughed. “Nah, I’m just kidding. Obviously be physical with him. Make it tough. I mean, he’s a special talent. Three-level scorer, huge IQ for the game, great change of pace. We got our hands full for sure.”

Beal has joked about this a few times when asked how to guard someone like Edwards, but there’s definitely some truth in there somewhere. It’s no “Jordan Rules,” but Phoenix has made life miserable for Ant whenever he’s reached the paint…to the point that Edwards even mentioned the officiating in Sunday’s postgame comments:

“Those games [are] over with… It’s a whole different game now. The refs can’t call those fouls that [they are] calling.”

Anthony Edwards on his mindset heading to the playoffs against the Suns 👀

(via @BallySportsNOR)pic.twitter.com/9NlIPW4vBk

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) April 15, 2024

So far, the Suns have had Ant’s number in a way few other teams in the league have. The bigger question is whether they can sustain it, and how the Wolves might try to combat Phoenix’s bold strategy.

How the Wolves might change things up

Anthony Edwards is a bona fide star, the best player on a 56-win team, and a proven playoff riser early in his career. There’s very little chance the Suns can continue bottling him up like this for another 4-7 games.

For the Wolves, it’ll have to start with a renewed aggression from Ant. As if the playoffs weren’t enough motivation, only taking seven shots should light a fire under him. There will be pockets — tiny slip-ups in transition, openings in drop coverage, or general miscues in communication — where Edwards could press the issue with his ability to pull up at any time:

You’ll notice Edwards missed quite a few of those pull-ups, but that’s sort of the point. The Suns would prefer a pull-up 3 from Ant over a drive to the basket, especially since he’s shooting just 33.6 percent on pull-up triples this year. He still takes a whopping 4.6 of them per game, with nearly two-thirds of his 3-point attempts coming in this fashion.

Phoenix can live with that, as well as the 47.6 percent of his shot attempts that come from some type of pull-up. It’s something coach Chris Finch believes Edwards has tried to emulate from Kevin Durant.

“What have I seen that Ant has taken from Kevin Durant? A lot more midrange shots,” Finch joked. “Doesn’t make ’em quite at the same rate, but maybe one day he will….Ant has shot the ball better from midrange this year than he has, and I think his ability to get to spots is cleaner, like KD can.”

The difference is Ant doesn’t quite have the same length to launch middies over everybody, and he’s nowhere near as efficient. Despite ranking in the 72nd percentile for midrange shot frequency, Edwards only ranks in the 38th percentile in midrange accuracy, shooting just 39 percent on those looks, per Cleaning The Glass.

Baiting him into driving past the initial defender, cutting off his progress with that tight shell, and forcing him into midrange pull-ups is the ideal outcome.

Ant will eventually take and make some tough shots. The first key is to keep him from gaining confidence from easy buckets in transition, since he’s the Wolves’ only source of fast break offense as a team ranked 29th in transition points. The second is contesting those pull-up 3s.

But perhaps most important is not compromising the integrity of their defensive approach by overreacting when other guys finally hit shots. Phoenix did a great job defending the 3-point line, but they’re not holding Minnesota to 29 percent shooting for a whole series. The Suns need to continue to force Ant off the ball and dare the supporting cast to make them pay, but the moment things get interesting is when Ant starts dishing a few dimes and Phoenix backs down from its “anyone but you” approach with Edwards.

Some of these are examples of a perfectly executed strategy followed by a made bucket that Phoenix can live with. Some of these are examples of over-helping at the nail and not getting back to shooters quick enough. And some of these are just examples of Ant making the right play and finding Mike Conley — a 49 percent corner 3-point shooter — in the right spot:

Edwards’ head coach believes one of his biggest areas of growth over the season has been his ability to leverage his gravity into setting up teammates.

“I think just understanding how to handle and attack different defensive looks,” Finch said before the April 5 matchup. “He sees a lot of different things. That’s one, and really, kinda using his potency to set up his teammates. That’s been a huge growth area, particularly over the last —  he’s shown glimpses of it, but he’s really leaned into it since KAT’s gone down.”

The viability of Phoenix’s defensive approach may come down to how ready Towns is to provide some offensive relief. His size and perimeter shooting can cause matchup problems and command double-teams, which puts the Suns in rotations and makes it more difficult to load up on Edwards.

If the Wolves consistently stick Conley and their shooters in the corners, keep Towns one pass away and try to force the Suns to scramble and recover, suddenly their 17th-ranked offense might be frisky enough to allow their defense to set the tone and win in a few rock fights.

But if KAT is still shaking off the rust or dealing with his usual postseason jitters, and if the Suns can stay disciplined with showing Anthony Edwards as many bodies as possible, the Wolves will struggle to keep up on the offensive end. And if that’s the case, this nightmarish matchup for Ant could prove just as problematic for Minnesota.