How the Suns have done more than just survive without Chris Paul, Part 2

The Phoenix Suns are thriving, not just surviving without Chris Paul. If recent reports are to be believed, they won’t have to do so for much longer.

According to The Athletic’s Sam Amick, Paul is already nearing his return from a right thumb avulsion fracture that was supposed to sideline him for 6-8 weeks, and he could be ready to return as early as Wednesday’s game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Whether he’s back that early or not, it appears his comeback is imminent. After Monday’s drop with Part 1 of our two-part series on how the Suns have exceeded expectations without Paul, it became imperative to tackle Part 2 — not because the return of the Point God gives this topic a short shelf life, but because it’s critical to examine where this team has grown in his absence and where that might help Phoenix come playoff time.

After diving into Mikal Bridges’ consistency off the dribble and Deandre Ayton’s hyper-efficiency in Part 1, we’ll shift our focus to Cam Payne, Devin Booker and coach Monty Williams’ underrated 0.5 offense.

When Payne is downright pleasant

Cam Payne deserves an article all to himself, and suffice it to say we’ll cover more ground on this topic soon. But for now, here’s the abridged version: The Suns needed a return to form from Payne, and upon returning from a wrist sprain and filling in as the starter, he’s unequivocally answered the bell.

“He’s led our team in a way that he probably didn’t think he was going to this year, but it’s been valuable for us,” Williams said.

Before the break, Payne averaged 10.5 points, 3.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds in 20.4 minutes per game, shooting 40.4% overall and 33.6% from deep. In his 10 games since, he’s put up 14.2 points, 9.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds in 30.4 minutes a night, shooting 41.9% overall and 35.3% from long range.

Payne has also posted a team-high +12.0 point differential and has racked up three of his four career double-doubles over these last 10 games.

Looking ahead to a post-CP3 era, there were understandable questions about Payne’s ability to be a starter in this league and facilitate, but he’s alleviated those concerns this year…much like he did last year, in a very brief window when he racked up 24 assists to only 3 turnovers in one regular-season start and two monumental playoff starts in the Western Conference Finals.

In that same understudy starting role this year, Payne has improved his assist-to-turnover ratio from 2.03 before the break to 4.3 after the fact. For reference, the Point God has posted a 4.49 assist-to-turnover ratio this season, which ranks fourth in the NBA among all qualified players and first among regular starting point guards.

That’s how good Payne has been as the steward of one of the NBA’s best offenses.

“I’m really admiring his poise,” JaVale McGee said. “I’m really admiring him getting these double-doubles with assists and really facilitating and finding the players. He usually plays at a rapid speed. He still has that speed, but he’s starting to figure out how to slow it down, chop it up, but still keep that speed.”

Payne, who is usually charged with providing pace and energy off the bench, said his conversations with Chris Paul helped him take a step back and slow things down in the starting role.

“He was telling me, ‘Man, find the in-between,'” Payne recalled. “‘It ain’t always gotta be at 100 miles per hour. You can slow it down, you can get to 50 sometimes.'”

The results have been hit or miss in late-game scenarios. Payne is especially hard on himself when it comes to fourth-quarter turnovers, and there have been occasions like the last-second New York Knicks win or the Toronto Raptors loss where he’s reverted back to bad habits by trying to force the issue.

Those moments, even in defeat, represent opportunities for growth.

“It is gonna be a good teaching film for him,” Williams said. “I think it’s gonna be good for him and for us. Until we get Chris back, we have to execute, and that doesn’t fall on Cam solely, but I think it’s gonna be a good growth moment for him and for us, because we have to be able to execute when teams try to take Book out or if they’re sending him away from the screen.”

Outside of a few late-game gaffes, however, Payne has been stellar. He set a career high with 16 assists in just his second game back and has reached double digits in the assists column in five of his last 10 games.

In Orlando, everything clicked with Payne’s improved ability to read and manipulate defenses on a key play in the clutch. His hesitation dribble and assist to Ayton in the paint got the Suns a competitive win on the road without Booker and CP3, and it was the exact kind of “A-HA!” moment he can build on.

“Coach was banging my head into the ground, he’s just, ‘Make sure and be patient out of the pick-and-rolls, just be a little bit more patient and let everything develop,'” Payne said. “And that’s what happened with DA.”

While Payne admits there’s still a bit of a learning curve, Williams doesn’t want to bog him down with pointers or tweak his style too much to where he’s thinking instead of just playing. He’s been highly complimentary of Payne’s ability to play in Phoenix’s 0.5 offense, especially with how he’s filled in so capably for Paul.

The goal is still to get Payne downhill, but to also help him learn to decelerate and probe for openings instead of going full-speed and hunting for shots.

“It’s a work in progress, for sure,” Williams said. “We’ve been talking to Cam about letting the play develop. He has the ability to score, which we want him to score, but there are times where you have to let the offense breathe a little bit and let things develop.”

Devin Booker elevates to MVP levels as a two-way player

More than likely, it’s too late for Devin Booker to legitimately enter the MVP conversation…which is a shame, because a guy averaging a 26-5-5 stat line for a team on pace for 66 wins would usually garner consideration.

The problem is Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo dominate that conversation, and oddly enough, the Suns are somehow too good and deep for Booker to make a legit case. Before Paul went out, he was just as much of an MVP candidate as Book, which essentially cancelled them both out.

What Booker has done in his absence, however, is striking.

In 10 games without his All-Star backcourt partner, Booker has put up 28.2 points, 7.0 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game on .525/.411/.930 shooting splits. Those are MVP-caliber numbers, as is the Suns’ 7-3 record over that span.

Point Book without Chris Paul (10 games):

28.2 PPG
4.8 RPG
7.0 APG

He had 31/7/5 today before fouling out. pic.twitter.com/U2XDXcgFBG

— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 21, 2022

In his first game back from health and safety protocols, Book dropped a 23-9-8 line in a blowout win over the East-leading Miami Heat. Not long after that, he slapped 30 points and 10 dimes on the Los Angeles Lakers through three quarters. He hung 36 on the Houston Rockets on the second night of a back-to-back, and despite fouling out in Sacramento, he finished with a 31-7-5 line.

In short, he’s done pretty much everything the Suns could’ve asked to help fill the Point God void on offense, posting the best assist-to-turnover ratio (2.0) of his career.

“Book is one of those guys that has so many layers and facets to his game — the ability to facilitate, to knock down shots, to attack the basket,” Williams said. “I’m learning each year how to coach him and try to put him in spots where he can be efficient, because our team has changed from year to year.”

It’s not just the offensive production that stands out, however. After being dogged for lackluster defense early in his career (when he was surrounded by G League talent), Book has grown into a truly good defender on the NBA’s second-best defense.

“We hold each other all accountable, you don’t want to be that guy,” Booker said. “I take a lot of pride in it, and I always have. I think there’s a lot of guys in this league, really talented guys that score the ball, make plays for a lot of people, but the list is smaller when you talk about people that are doing it on both ends. So I want that reputation, and I’m gonna prove it every night.”

He’s probably not going to get consideration for an All-Defensive team selection like his head coach wants, but Booker is leading the team in steals since the break at 1.9 per game. His progress on that end over the last two years has been striking, and it’s part of what makes Phoenix so tough to beat.

“I’ve said it since I’ve been here, he’s more than a scorer,” Williams said. “He’s more than an offensive savant. Whatever people call him, the young man plays defense. He guards his position every night. He’s one of the best two-way players in the game. That sounds weird talking about Devin as a two-way player, but that’s what he is.”

It hasn’t been perfect for Point Book and the Suns. As Basketball News’ Nekias Duncan pointed out, Phoenix ranks 15th in points per possession (PPP) when defenses blitz or hedge on screens, and Booker’s 0.81 PPP on those plays ranks 38th out of the 41 players who have been blitzed or hedged against on at least 100 screens.

But for all the doubts about what the Suns would look like without Chris Paul, Devin Booker has elevated his game the most, reminding people what he’s capable of on both ends when his team needs him to produce at a Herculean higher level.

Playmaking wings and Monty’s 0.5 offense

We covered how the Suns have collectively stepped up to fill the Chris Paul (and Cam Johnson) void in Part 1, but this one is important: Without the league leader in assists at 10.7 dimes per game, the Suns have actually increased their assist numbers without him, ranking third in that category (28.6 per game) since the break. And despite being 13th in turnovers, they’re fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio.

One could argue that Paul creates a lot of his own offense, so taking him out of the equation would force this team to rely more on ball movement. But there’s a big difference between that outcome in theory and that happening while Phoenix’s 0.5 offense continues to produce at an elite level.

“I always have to start off after saying that by saying we will never be able to to replace what Chris does for this team, no matter how many assists we have,” Booker said. “But still just trying to find ways, still trying to play together. It’s an equal-opportunity offense. We all trust each other to the highest degree, and it works out well for us.”

Booker and Payne have seen the biggest jumps in their nightly assist numbers, which makes sense as the guys who handle the ball most of the time. But the Suns’ wings have all chipped in, gradually raising their assist numbers compared to before the break:

• Mikal Bridges: 2.1 APG to 3.1 APG
• Cam Johnson: 1.3 APG to 3.0 APG
• Jae Crowder: 1.5 APG to 3.0 APG
• Devin Booker: 4.5 APG to 7.0 APG

“Playoffs showed a lot,” Ayton explained. “C is so good in the pick-and-roll, man, teams throw so many different things at us to where our other guys have to be playmakers. So when you’re seeing Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges flash, that’s just our counter to C getting double-teamed or blitzed — him and Book.”

It’s an incredible testament to the personnel on this team and the interchangeability of this roster, but also the system itself, that guys are able to jump into new lineups, move the ball and continue to generate efficient looks.

Part of that success stems from Williams’ willingness to tailor his dizzying array of sets to suit his personnel. While the rest of the league zigs, focusing chiefly on 3s and shots at the basket, the Suns aren’t afraid to mix in a heavy dose of midrange looks, which is perfect for a roster with so many players who are lethal from that area of the floor:

• Devin Booker: 46% from midrange (85th percentile), 44% from short mid (69th percentile)
• Mikal Bridges: 51% from midrange (93rd percentile), 56% from short mid (95th percentile)
• Deandre Ayton: 58% from midrange (94th percentile), 60% from short mid (96th percentile)
• Chris Paul: 54% from midrange (98th percentile), 53% from short mid (96th percentile)
• Jae Crowder: 49% from midrange (85th percentile), 53% from short mid (89th percentile)

“I’m probably a minority in the league, but I don’t mind 2s, because if you have a good defense, the 2s allow for you to set your defense,” Williams explained. “And 2s also are shorter rebounds, and they don’t allow for teams to get out in transition quickly. And so we have guys that can make those shots — Chris, Book, Mikal, DA, Cam Payne.”

Make no mistake about it, though: The Suns are the epitome of a modern, efficient NBA offense. They rank:

• 5th in paint touches
• 9th in catch-and-shoot PPG
• 3rd in pull-up shooting PPG
• 5th in transition points per possession (PPP)
• 6th in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP
• 2nd in pick-and-roll roll man PPP
• 7th in PPP off cuts
• 8th in PPP off screens
• 6th in spot-up PPP
• 25th in isolation frequency

Payne, Torrey Craig, Aaron Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, Bismack Biyombo and even JaVale McGee can be included on the list of players who were either struggling to find their groove, unable to carve out a niche on their prior team, or out of the league entirely just before arriving in Phoenix. Monty’s 0.5 offense harnessed innate gifts that were lying dormant and strengthened the overall team product.

“I was talking to Cam Johnson about it earlier this morning, I was asking him what he sees when he just watches the game,” Crowder said. “He was like, ‘The way we move the ball, the way we played together, it looks like each guy is on the same page.’ And I think that’s what we’re trying to play like, that’s what we’re trying to prove is just be on the same page, right or wrong, just all five guys on the court are just thinking alike. And I think that’s what you see with the assists.”

Shamet, who’s only in his first year with the Suns, is just one of several new faces who quickly picked up on how Phoenix likes to operate and now loves playing in a balanced system that repeatedly emphasizes a “we score” mentality.

“That’s just our culture,” Shamet said. “That’s what we are, who we are, with or without Chris and Book. They’re obviously our engine, they drive us. We know that. Chris is unbelievable as a point guard and a leader. Book, you just throw him the ball, he’s going to give you 30 every night, it seems like. So we know that, I’m not discrediting that, but our culture, how we play, our style of play definitely tends to put us in good positions when we’re in these situations.”