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Let’s not waste any time here: Re-signing Royce O’Neale is the only logical choice for the Phoenix Suns this summer.
Suns fans are understandably wary of catchphrases like “run it back,” and “continuity” right now. After the most disappointing season in franchise history and an embarrassing first-round sweep (that is admittedly looking better by the day), keeping everything the same and simply banking on improved chemistry in Year 2 would be hard for the fanbase to stomach.
But among all of the Suns’ pending free agents, O’Neale needs to be the biggest exception to that sentiment. It’s not only imperative for the Suns to re-sign O’Neale from a basketball perspective, but from a roster-building perspective under the NBA’s new CBA, it’s their only logical move.
Let’s start with the basketball side. Although O’Neale will turn 31 years old in June, the 6-foot-6 wing immediately filled multiple holes on both ends of the court as soon as he arrived in Phoenix in February.
“It’s hard to narrow it down to one thing, ’cause he just does a little bit of everything while he’s out there,” Devin Booker said. “Defensively, taking on his matchup, just being ready. And then he’s just that great piece where he’s running up, slipping out, moving the ball and then knocking down open shots.”
In 29 appearances for the Suns, O’Neale averaged 8.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 25.1 minutes per game. He only shot 41.1 percent overall, but he made 37.6 percent of his 5.2 3-point attempts per game. He also shot 43.4 percent on his corner 3s, 37.8 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s and 40.3 percent on wide-open 3s.
In the playoffs, he was nowhere near as effective. His numbers dropped to 5.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.0 assists in 26.0 minutes per game, while shooting 31.8 percent overall and 33.3 percent from deep. When Grayson Allen went down with not one, but two ankle sprains, O’Neale was unable to step up outside of Game 1, when he scored all 14 bench points for Phoenix on 5-of-10 shooting. Over the next three games, he put up a combined 6 points on 2-of-12 shooting.
However, it’s worth noting that pretty much everyone sucked in that four-game beatdown from the Minnesota Timberwolves. During his limited time in Phoenix, O’Neale established himself as a quintessential glue guy on both ends, knocking down open 3s, making the right pass to keep the ball moving, defending multiple positions, and leading the charge on the communication front.
“When I talk about Royce, I just say ‘winning plays,'” general manager James Jones said. “I can’t tell you whether or not they’ll be on the offensive side of the ball or the defensive side of the ball every night; I just know when you stack it up, he’s gonna have a lot of winning plays.”
The numbers backed that up. Phoenix posted a team-best +9.4 Net Rating with O’Neale on the court this season, and a team-worst -4.1 Net Rating when he sat. Those numbers didn’t hold up in the playoffs, but again, that series was a small sample size where the entire roster got smashed to a pulp.
Regardless of how the postseason ended, O’Neale’s time in Phoenix confirmed what the rest of the league has known for years now: This is a solid two-way player who can come in and give any team respectable minutes.
“I would hesitate to call him a role player,” said O’Neale’s former Utah Jazz coach, Quin Snyder. “I’m sure he’d be fine with that, and he probably is that, but that sometimes belittles all the things that someone does. He has a lot of different roles, and I think that’s his greatest strength. His humility as a player and his competitiveness have always set him apart.”
That humility helped him embrace a bench role behind Allen, despite possessing the size and defensive skill-set that should have been tested alongside the other four starters more often. Regardless of where he fits in the rotation, the point is that he fits.
“I try to fit in with any group I’m in,” O’Neale said. “Whether I’m starting or coming off the bench, I’m still gonna play the same way, try to fit in with whatever group I’m in.”
From his switchable, versatile defense to his willingness to launch 3s to the connectivity he provides on both ends as a seasoned veteran and lead communicator, O’Neale is a top priority for the Suns to bring him back as part of their projected playoff core for next year.
Even if you’re skeptical of O’Neale’s playoff viability, re-signing him is the only logical move from a team-building standpoint.
Not everyone is a salary cap aficionado (or read our offseason primer), so we’ll break this down as best we can. As it stands, the Suns have seven players under contract for next season, coming in at a combined $194.1 million in salary, per Spotrac:
Four more players could choose to return by using the second-year player options they received when they signed with Phoenix last summer:
The salary cap for next season is projected to be around $141 million, with the luxury tax threshold at $172 million and the second tax apron at $190 million. The Suns are already over the second tax apron with the seven players they have under contract for $194.1 million, and they could reach approximately $205.9 million in salary if all four of those guys with player options opt in. Either way, they’re certain to be a second tax apron team again.
Under the new CBA, teams in the second tax apron are not allowed to use the mid-level exception in free agency, and their flexibility in trades is drastically reduced:
So what does this mean?
As a team that’s well over the salary cap, they have no cap space to sign outside free agents. As a team that’s also in the luxury tax, they would normally have the $5.1 million taxpayer mid-level exception to offer to an outside free agent, but because they’re a second tax apron team, they won’t have access to the MLE. That deprives them of a vital tool for signing outside outside players to contracts worth more than the vet minimum.
So as Phoenix looks to fill its remaining 4-8 roster spots, they can only do so via trade (with strict regulations attached), the No. 22 pick in this year’s draft, veteran minimums in free agency…and re-signing their own free agents.
Much like the Grayson Allen extension, re-signing Royce O’Neale is a necessity. Like Allen, the Suns own O’Neale’s Bird rights, which means they’re allowed to go over the salary cap to re-sign him. Phoenix was already heading for second tax apron territory before Allen’s extension, so the only drawback to his four-year, $70 million deal was the hefty luxury tax penalty that came with it — and that’s for Mat Ishbia to worry about.
Obviously, re-signing O’Neale to an extension would come with another hefty luxury tax bill, but Ishbia has publicly committed to spending whatever it takes — numerous times.
“The way I look at it is this: We’re trying to win,” Ishbia said back in March. “Signing free agents is what it’s gonna take. And having someone’s Bird rights gives you an advantage to be able to keep those players, even if you’re into the luxury tax. We’re not frivolous with money and just spending money to spend money; what we’re trying to do is win a championship and build the best team possible, and it’s not just players, it’s culture. It’s team members, and Grayson and Royce are two great guys.”
This is not a case of “new owner syndrome” or making the Suns’ salary cap situation worse; Phoenix will be a second tax apron team regardless, and because they own O’Neale’s Bird rights, they can re-sign him to a deal that properly compensates him while also retaining a key role player.
Remember, as a second tax apron team, if Phoenix lets O’Neale walk for nothing in free agency, that would not free up any cap room to pursue other free agents. They would only be able to try and replace his two-way production with vet minimum deals, which is improbable at best.
There are probably solid role players on the market who will be willing to take less to join the Suns. The organization has repaired its reputation, Ishbia aggressively woos players he and the front office believe will help Phoenix win, and people will want to play with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal.
But as last summer’s slew of vet minimum additions proved, it’s hard to hit on those margins. Guys like Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe and Chimezie Metu largely disappointed, which is why they were packaged with Jordan Goodwin at the trade deadline to land O’Neale in the first place. Even vet minimum guys who stayed past the deadline like Drew Eubanks and Josh Okogie largely struggled to make an impact.
Long story short: There is no financial or basketball incentive to let O’Neale walk, regardless of what his extension winds up being. This isn’t a case of “bring him back as long as the price is fair”; this is “bring him back, period, even if he makes a couple extra million above market price, because Ishbia and his pockets are the only ones who will be impacted by it.”
O’Neale was only eligible for a two-year, $20.5 million deal if he had signed an in-season extension like Allen. This summer, he can sign a larger deal, with a higher annual salary. Something in the three-year, $30-45 million range makes sense — not just to entice him to stay, but also because the Suns need to structure some of their contracts for future trade flexibility.
Remember, as a second tax apron team, Phoenix can’t take back a single dollar more than they sending out in any trade, and they can’t send out multiple players in the same trade. Without being able to aggregate salaries or make any trade where they take back additional salary, Phoenix’s only trade avenues this summer will revolve around bringing back salaries that are just under what guys like Jusuf Nurkic ($18.1 million) Nassir Little ($6.8 million) and David Roddy ($2.8 million) make.
Grayson Allen ($15.6 million) and Royce O’Neale (whatever his first-year salary is) will join that club later, since Allen isn’t trade-eligible until mid-October and O’Neale won’t be trade-eligible for months after he officially re-signs. Regardless, if the Suns need to make moves down the road, they need salaries in that middle tier for future trade flexibility. Signing him to a three-year deal in the $39-42 million range — $13 million or $14 million annually, which would be just above the NBA’s non-taxpayer mid-level exception at $12.9 million — would make a ton of sense.
Fortunately, it appears the Suns front office is on the same page about all of this. Both Ishbia and Jones mentioned O’Neale specifically when talking about the team’s future plans during their end-of-season availability, and Ishbia has sounded resolute about bringing him back for months now.
“Grayson and Royce are two great guys,” Ishbia said in March. “Royce is new to the organization, has done an amazing job [in] everything you could think of, and Grayson’s been here all year and has been a phenomenal part of the team and the organization. So we hope and expect to have both those guys back, along with keeping this core team together, ‘cause we love our team, and we’re gonna go compete at the highest level.”
For his part, O’Neale mentioned that those conversations would run their course at the proper time, but he sounded fairly optimistic about returning when asked whether he’d want to re-sign with the Suns.
“Yeah, for sure,” O’Neale said. “It’s a great place, team, organization. It’s been great since I’ve been here since day one. I’m trying not to focus on that, that’s summertime. Right now, just focus on the playoffs.”
From a basketball perspective, bringing back Royce O’Neale makes sense. But from a salary cap perspective, where one takes into account the Suns have zero chance of replacing what he provides with vet minimums, re-signing him is their only option…even if he winds up with a slightly larger deal than expected.
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