Phoenix Rising‘s run of draws finally came to an end on Saturday as the side fell 1-0 to a late New Mexico goal at 38th and Washington.

That result, combined with scores elsewhere, leaves Rising just two points above the playoff line in the final postseason spot.

Sickness hits Phoenix Rising squad

All season long, Phoenix Rising has seemed to lurch from one injury crisis to another.

Against New Mexico, it was illness that kicked in instead.

“We had two players that were sick all week, and we didn’t even have [Xian] Emmers on the bench,” Rising coach Pa-Modou Kah said.

Some Rising players that sources indicated had been sick this past week did make appearances off the bench, but the team was still forced into some strange changes. In midfield, JP Scearce, Carl Sainté and new signing Jean-Éric Moursou started despite all three being more defensive-minded players. The result was that Sainté, who has played at center-back at times this season, was featuring in a more advanced role.

“He’s not a natural ten, but that’s what we had,” Kah said. “Because the one that we have, the natural ten, he had fever. But the next man mentality that the group has, it’s remarkable.”

Cagey affair looked set for goalless draw

For three straight weeks, Phoenix Rising had fallen behind early. This week, that wasn’t the case.

“We’ve had a little bit of struggle with our starts, and today we started very well,” Kah said. “We were on the front foot. We created a lot of turnovers for them, and we just didn’t take that one moment.”

Two major chances during the game were highlighted by the Rising coach, with Rémi Cabral‘s first half opportunity and Ihsan Sacko‘s second half one-on-one proving to be opportunities that Phoenix couldn’t take advantage of.

At the same time, Rising succeeded in limiting chances for their opponent at the other end, setting up what looked to be a likely stalemate.

“I think it was a great performance from the boys,” Kah said. “They were magnificent, worked both sides of the ball, very organized.”

Late penalty seals 3 points for New MExico

Despite holding New Mexico to just two shots on target heading into second half stoppage time, Phoenix Rising gave away its share of the spoils at the end of the match.

Pape Mar Boye appeared to extend his arm into Thomas Amang as he ran towards goal in the penalty area, leading referee Atahan Yaya to point to the spot.

“For me, I don’t feel like it’s a penalty,” Kah said. “I think he’s already going down before anybody touches him, but again, that’s the referee’s decision and there’s nothing I can do about those decisions.”

Talen Maples converted the ensuing spot kick past Patrick Rakovsky to claim the full three points for the visitors.

Owain’s Take

Five straight draws had seen most of the Phoenix Rising faithful praying to finally see a different result. I’m not sure this was the result they were praying for, though.

In fairness, there was some improvement from Rising despite facing adversity in the form of illness within the camp. After several weeks of seemingly being unable to stop the opposition from scoring at will, Phoenix ground New Mexico’s attack mostly to a halt.

Yet as one door opened, another closed. Rising’s defense might have improved, but its attack mostly dried up in the process. Yes, the team had a few chances, but they did only add up to 0.58 expected goals: far fewer than totals in recent matches. Plus, the team didn’t look especially threatening in moments where they didn’t get shots off, either.

In the end, it was a stoppage time penalty that undid Rising’s hopes on the night. While the Phoenix camp is clearly of the opinion that it was a harsh call, I find it hard to agree. At a minimum, the contact from Boye was sufficient to beg the question of the referee, and when you do that late in a game, I struggle to have sympathy when the decision goes against you. Let’s also not forget that Rising probably should have conceded a penalty late in the away leg of this fixture, and if it had been awarded and converted, Phoenix would have actually dropped two points as a result instead of the one forfeited at home.

Overall, did Rising deserve to come away empty-handed from this match? In fairness, they probably didn’t, but you could construct similar arguments in the opposite direction when looking at Phoenix’s prior two home matches, both of which required stoppage time equalizers.

Taken as a whole, two points out of a possible nine on this homestand is probably a fair reflection of Phoenix Rising’s overall performance. To be able to say that coming off of three games at home late in the season that most expected would prove season-defining is nothing short of a cause for concern.

That concern hasn’t fully been realized yet, but the grips of a genuine fight to even make it to the postseason tightened with the loss to New Mexico, as the two teams placed below Rising picked up points. Colorado Springs’ victory over San Antonio saw them leapfrog Phoenix into 7th, while a draw for Orange County against El Paso cut Rising’s lead over them to just two points. Two points are now all that separate Rising from making or missing the playoffs, and given that two-thirds of the league make it in, there simply aren’t excuses if Phoenix fails to do so.

Picking up just two points over the past three games means that Rising probably needs to find a win in its final matches to feel especially safe in their chances of making it into November, but those games aren’t easy ones on paper. San Antonio may be inconsistent, but the team still sits among the sides that will host in the first round of the playoffs for now. North Carolina and Pittsburgh are chasing the same fate in the Eastern Conference, and both represent long road trips that this team will have to overcome. Adding to that, Rising has just one win in 11 league matches, and just two in its last 15… It’s not an easy game to say precisely where the win is going to come from.

In his postgame comments, Rising’s coach described the matchup with New Mexico as resembling a playoff match in the way that it was played.

But unless this team clicks at some point in its final three matches, there’s a very real risk that the imitation of a playoff match on a Saturday night at 38th and Washington is as close as they get to the real thing in 2025.

Top image: Phoenix Rising FC/Ashley Orellana