👋 GOOD MORNING
Friday, Dec. 27, 2024 — Good morning, I hope everyone celebrating had a nice holiday! I certainly enjoyed the time with my family – can’t believe yet another Christmas is in the books, and now it’s on to the New Year, which kicks off with the Peach Bowl!
Before we get on to today’s main story — a little preview of the Jan. 1 College Football Playoff clash between Arizona State and Texas — I just wanted to breathe a collective sigh of relief with my fellow Suns fans after Wednesday’s 110-100 win over Denver at Footprint Center. The victory snapped a three-game losing streak, and came without Devin Booker, who continues to work his way back from an injury.
Bradley Beal had the showing we desperately needed to see from him, notching 27 points in 38 minutes, while Kevin Durant also chipped in 27 points and six assists. It was a solid win at home and a step in the right direction, with the Luca-less Mavs on tap tonight. The Suns have already defeated Dallas twice this season.
Finally, mad props to everyone for participating in Tuesday’s poll. As far as I’m concerned, the debate has been settled. The poll had the most responses to date in the newsletter, and the results were clear: Die Hard IS a Christmas movie!
On to the show!
How The Peach Bowl Can Be Won
It’s simply not possible to shut down the Texas Longhorns’ offense.
That doesn’t mean they’re not beatable, though only one team (Georgia) has figured out a way to beat them this season, and they did it twice: 30-15 on Oct. 19 and 22-19 in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 7. Other than those two games, the Longhorns have an unblemished record (12-2), winning by an average margin of 25.5 points while defeating five ranked opponents.
Yeah, this isn’t Iowa State. It’s the Peach Bowl.
Georgia put together and executed what literally no other FBS team could figure out this season — a blueprint for beating the Longhorns.
Shut Down the Run Game
The Longhorns have dominated on offense all season, ranking 15th with 448.9 yards of offense per game. Their rushing attack accounts for almost 174 of those yards, and they ran for 292 in their 38-24 win in the First Round game last week.
Texas’ rushing attack was shockingly stagnant against Georgia, combining for 60 yards in their two losses to the Bulldogs. An offense as talented as the Longhorns, though, still made up for it through the air by racking up 617 passing yards in the same two games, staying within striking distance.
ASU won’t be able to completely shut down quarterback Quinn Ewers, but stifling the running game will go a long way to forcing Texas into a one-dimensional attack. The task on defense, by the way, is even harder considering cornerback Shamari Simmons will miss the first half while serving the second half of a targeting suspension.
Strike Early, Capitalize on Turnovers
The Sun Devils’ most recent success has come because of dominant first half performances. Take a look at what they have done in their six-game winning streak:
Big 12 Championship Game: 24 first-half points. Win over Arizona: 35 first-half points. Win over BYU: 21 first-half points. Win over Kansas State: 21 first-half points. Win over UCF: 21 first-half points. Win over Oklahoma State: 21 first-half points.
Compare that to the seven first-half points ASU recorded in its loss to Cincinnati back in October, and it is clear the team needs to score quickly, and score often, especially considering how effective Texas’ offense is at responding. An early two-plus score lead in the Peach Bowl would also make the Longhorns think about throwing the ball more, aiding in the Sun Devils’ ability to help slow the running game.
The Bulldogs also won the turnover battle in both of their wins over Texas, something Arizona State needs to do to advance to the semifinal round. The Sun Devils put the game against Iowa State away by converting three third-quarter turnovers into touchdowns, essentially punching their ticket to the CFP before the fourth quarter had even started.
ASU Passing Game Needs to Replicate Big 12 Title Game Success
It’s somewhat ridiculous to state the obvious and say running back Cam Skattebo needs to put forth the same dominating performance in the Peach Bowl that almost led him to New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He’s got 1,568 rushing yards this season, 22 total touchdowns, and is the first player with to exceed 1,500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards since 2016.
So, yeah. Skattebo needs to dominate. Duh.
At the Peach Bowl, though, success through the air is just as critical, if not moreso.
Yes, the Sun Devils’ ground game will be pivotal against the Longhorns, who rank third in all of the FBS in total yards allowed per game (261.4), second in passing yards per game (156.9) and second in points allowed per game (13.3). Perhaps the most shocking element from Arizona State’s win over Iowa State was the success of its air attack, especially considering the loss of No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson.
As if on cue, the gritty receiving corps stepped up, led by Melquan Stovall (91 receiving yards), Xavier Guillory (two touchdown receptions) and Skattebo (one touchdown reception), and more of that will be needed to notch the team’s first playoff win in program history.
Sam Leavitt has proven to be a sound decision maker and a budding star, and he shines even more when it matters most, recording eight touchdowns against two interceptions against AP Top 25 teams. If he can replicate his performance against Iowa State in Arlington, Texas, ASU has a true chance to advance to the semifinals.
There isn’t a Sun Devils’ fan in the world who thinks the Peach Bowl matchup will be easy, though the same cannot be said for Longhorns fans, or even national media. But that has been a recurring theme all season, so why change now?
ASU just may go out and shock the world … Again. Wouldn’t that be peachy?
🧢 TIP OF THE HAT BY BRANDED BILLS
Kansas State rallied to win the Rate Bowl over Rutgers at Chase Field — always fun to see football downtown!
