Does Deandre Ayton deserve a max contract extension?

Aside from perhaps Giannis Antetokounmpo, nobody did more to increase their stock in the 2021 NBA Playoffs than Deandre Ayton. Just months before the Phoenix Suns’ memorable trip to the Finals, Ayton was getting benched for Dario Saric in the fourth quarters of close games, and “Why doesn’t he dunk more?” was a legitimate discussion. Fast-forward a few months and the Suns were winning a Western Conference Finals game on the back of his “Valley-Oop” finish over 7-footer Ivica Zubac.

Despite his bouts of inconsistency during the regular season, Ayton absolutely showed out once the postseason arrived. During his first postseason run, the big fella put up 15.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game on 65.8 percent shooting from the field. He was arguably the Suns’ most consistent player through the first three rounds, anchoring the defense on one end and serving as an automatic two points whenever he caught the ball around the basket, where he made nearly 71 percent of his looks.

The timing couldn’t have been better on Ayton’s part, because even though he and the Suns ultimately fell short in the championship round, hardly anyone would have considered giving the 7-footer a max contract extension as recently as May.

Now it’s a legitimate conversation.

First-round selections from the 2018 NBA Draft class are eligible for rookie-scale extensions this offseason, and so far, three max deals have been given out. The first is Luka Doncic, who signed a five-year, 30 percent supermax salary worth $207.1 million — a no-brainer for the Dallas Mavericks, given that he’s their franchise player and is already an MVP candidate just three seasons into his career.

The second is Trae Young, who was not eligible for the same supermax agreement with the Atlanta Hawks because he hasn’t fulfilled the same All-NBA requirements. However, he still got a 25 percent max extensions, which amounts to five years and $172.6 million but could climb to $207.1 million if he earns an All-NBA selection this season.

Finally, there’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who signed the same agreement as Young: five years, $172.6 million, with escalators that could reach $207.1 million if he has an All-NBA season with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The only other first-round selection to receive a rookie extension so far this summer was Robert Williams, who signed a four-year, $54 million deal with the Boston Celtics.

Ayton is due for a much grander payday than that, and the Suns will want to avoid letting him — or Mikal Bridges — become restricted free agents next summer. So what are their options ahead of the Oct. 18 deadline?

CONTRACT OPTIONS

Following an eye-opening playoff run that showed this 22-year-old could not only hang in a playoff series, but legitimately trade blows with some of the game’s elite bigs, Ayton and his people have leverage to push for a max deal. While his offensive game isn’t as refined as max-level rookies like Doncic or Young, Ayton proved that he’s capable of locking in and contributing at a high level for a legitimate title contender. Given the touches he’s sacrificed over his first three seasons in order to maximize the role Phoenix needed him to tackle, Ayton deserves to be rewarded for that, his team-first approach and his immense upside.

Whether that handsome payday extends into max-level territory is another debate. The Suns can offer Ayton a four-year, $133.3 million max rookie extension worth 25 percent of the cap, but his people would undoubtedly push for a five-year deal. Doncic, Young and Gilgeous-Alexander all got one, Devin Booker got one from the Suns already, and even though Rudy Gobert’s recent five-year, $205 million contract was not a rookie extension, it still shows the market is willing to pay up for rim-running, rim-protecting bigs if they can do both at an elite level.

As The Four-Point Play’s David Kevin pointed out, the most important thing here is the Suns cannot offer something “a little less than the max” on any five-year deal, because that would be the Designated Rookie extension, which is worth 25 percent of the cap. The most they can offer on a four-year arrangement is $133.3 million. If they tack on a fifth year, it’s automatically at least $172.6 million, which means you’re looking at a difference of about $39.3 million between those two options. Is it any wonder Ayton’s people will push for that fifth year?

Much like Young and Gilgeous-Alexander’s deals, a five-year, $172.6 million Designated Rookie extension for Ayton could include triggers that would increase his contract to anywhere between 25-30 percent of the cap. If he got the full 30 percent, the total figure would shoot up to $207.1 million if he won an MVP award, Defensive Player of the Year award or earned an All-NBA honors. That may sound risky, but it’s a win-win situation at that point: If Ayton is playing well enough to get MVP, DPOY or an All-NBA selection, the Suns would happily reward him for exceeding expectations. Maybe not up to the full 30 percent threshold, but still.

Ayton’s people may also push for a player option on that fifth year — something Booker didn’t get, and something the Suns should try and hold steady on. Book is still the franchise player, and while Ayton’s postseason run was eye-opening, it shouldn’t change the pecking order. Giving Ayton a fifth-year player option when Phoenix’s leading superstar didn’t get one would be a weird look.

WHAT SHOULD THE SUNS DO?

The question is whether five years and $172.6 million is too much for a player who rarely creates his own offense. If the Suns were fully comfortable with those numbers, the deal probably would’ve been done by now. Looking at the players who have received five-year, 25 percent max extensions on their rookie-scale deals over the last four seasons, they’re almost exclusively established All-Stars, All-NBA players or high-level shot creators, which the modern game places a premium on:

• Jayson Tatum (2020)
• Donovan Mitchell (2020)
• Bam Adebayo (2020)
• De’Aaron Fox (2020)
• Ben Simmons (2019)
• Jamal Murray (2019)
• Devin Booker (2018)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (2018)
• Joel Embiid (2017)
• Andrew Wiggins (2017)

The obvious, glaring exception in that group is Wiggins, who’s been largely criticized for his lack of growth since the Minnesota Timberwolves invested in his potential rather than what he actually showed them. Ayton has proven more so far in his young career, but even after that impressive Finals run, he’s still not quite on the same level as any of these players in terms of offensive creation (sans Wiggins). Nearly 84 percent of his made field goals were assisted in the playoffs, which isn’t a bad thing for a guy who absolutely cleaned up around the basket, but it indicates just how far he has to go to develop his game on that end.

Despite being billed as a future stretch-5 in his early days, Ayton has only taken 37 3-pointers in his three-year career, and he’s only made seven of them (18.9 percent). His offensive arsenal in the post is mostly limited to jump hooks and face-up jumpers, and though he displays awareness of making the right play on the short roll when double-teams or help defenders cut him off, most of his passes are two-handed, overhead bullets that can be difficult to handle, let alone capitalize on.

Even so, this is the part everyone needs to remember Ayton just turned 23. This extension wouldn’t kick in until the 2022-23 season, so the question isn’t whether he’s worth that money now, but whether he’ll become a $30 million player over the next few seasons. Bearing in mind the immense progress he showed last season, his current developmental arc and how coachable he’s been under the guidance of coach Monty Williams, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Jae Crowder, the case can certainly be made for the Suns giving him the five-year Designated Rookie extension and trusting in his upside. It still feels steep, but it wouldn’t be some egregious, Wiggins-caliber overpay either — especially with the salary cap expected to rise over the next few years.

Deandre Ayton still has a lot to work on, especially when it comes to expanding his range as a shooter, striving to be more consistent during the regular season and building on the off-the-dribble flashes that were rare but exhilarating last year. Adding some touch and finesse to the passes he rifles off wouldn’t hurt, and he should continue to grow in all aspects on the defensive end. If he’s able to deliver on those areas for improvement, Ayton will live up to whatever extension he might sign with the Suns this offseason.