For this week’s NBA power rankings, we’re debuting tiers of contention. There are five of them, starting with the deadly serious contenders who could win in the Finals if they started tomorrow and ending with the dregs of the league, squads who are playing for nothing more than the development of their youngsters and lottery odds. There are still 19 franchises stuck somewhere between that, including some surprising risers and fallers from the past two weeks, which we’ll sort into less decisive tiers along the way.
For contenders and near-contenders, I’m including each team’s record and point differential against the league’s top-10 opponents, which I’ve sourced from Cleaning the Glass, a subscription website which filters out garbage time. (I should also note that site filters the league’s top-10 by point differential, not record, which means beating the Lakers, for example, doesn’t help despite their record.) It’s not the end-all-be-all for every team; some of the sample sizes are still tiny, and some matchups can be explained away by rest advantages and injuries. But it’s telling context that does show how some overachieving rosters might still need more to have playoff success, and vice versa, based on their results against the best.
TIER ONE: Genuine, unquestioned contenders
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (37-10)
Against top-10 opponents: 7-5, plus-7.0 point differential (1st)
Why they’re legit: Oklahoma City has officially exited the “best record of all time” conversation with its 10th defeat of the season. That we must clarify that speaks to their continued excellence. Even in January, while tallying three losses in the past five games, the Thunder still have the league’s fourth-best point differential despite playing seven different lineups across the past eight games due to various injuries. They’ve been, and remain, the league’s most feared squad no matter who they face.
2. Detroit Pistons (33-11)
Against top-10 opponents: 5-2, plus-5.7 point differential (2nd)
Why they’re legit: Detroit has been the league’s second-best team against elite opponents, adding two more wins (vs. Phoenix Suns, vs. Boston Celtics) against teams of those echelon over the past two weeks. They did also lose to the Houston Rockets, but the team’s defense hasn’t faltered against such opponents (their 111.6 points allowed per 100 possessions is behind only the Thunder), which has become Detroit’s defining ability. The Pistons are marching towards the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed and there’s almost certainly no one who will stop them.
The only question: Should Detroit see its clear path to the Finals and conclude upgrades are needed now, this season, sooner than what must have been this front office’s vision for the roster prior to the season?
3. San Antonio Spurs (31-15)
Against top-10 opponents: 9-6, plus-1.6 point differential (5th)
Why they’re legit: San Antonio remains two teams: The first, the one when Victor Wembanyama isn’t on the court due to injury or minute restrictions, holds its own against any opponent; the second, with Wembanyama playing, demolishes anyone standing in their way. The only full-time starter who makes their defense better than Wembanyama (11 fewer points allowed per 100 possessions) in his minutes on the court is Rudy Gobert (14 fewer points). Wembanyama makes San Antonio better offensively, too, although that still remains the team’s leading question when facing the league’s best. But the Spurs are real, right now, with a championship ceiling.
4. Denver Nuggets (31-15)
Against top-10 opponents: 8-3, plus-3.7 point differential (3rd)
Why they’re legit: Denver’s basketball hasn’t been the prettiest without Nikola Jokić; in January, based on its points differential, the team has run about 2.5 wins ahead of what would be expected of a squad that’s been outscored by 29 points. But eking out close games and scrounging for more results than deserved has been the very mission statement since Jokić went down. Denver won’t be apologizing for its eight wins this month, nor should they be. Once healthy, they’re the league’s most proven contender alongside Oklahoma City, one who now has fascinating late season storylines: Can Peyton Watson and Jalen Pickett’s emergences during this stretch translate and potentially amplify Denver’s proven model of success even further?
5. Boston Celtics (28-17)
Against top-10 opponents: 5-8, minus-2.7 point differential (10th)
Why they’re legit: For all of the Celtics’ surprising success, the team’s offseason talent drain can still be seen when facing the league’s best. It’s defeats against those opponents, like Detroit last week and San Antonio earlier this month, where Boston’s possession machine isn’t quite as dangerous and where opposing offenses are more likely to expose the weakest cogs in Boston’s rotation.
This is a roster that could really use an All-NBA-level two-way wing. And given the Celtics’ media core has begun writing things like, “Boston hasn’t even thought about Tatum returning this season, but they believe this would be his role if it happens,” which is good media-speak for, “They’re thinking about what would happen if he returns this season,” it’s increasingly conceivable to think Tatum may yet rejoin this team before the season’s end. If he doesn’t, even while acknowledging the Celtics are the weakest true contender of this tier, I can still envision their path to the Finals easier than the rest.
TIER TWO: Show us a little more
6. Houston Rockets (27-16)
Against top-10 opponents: 7-6, plus-3.4 point differential (4th)
What more we need to see: Houston has won five of its last seven, including statement wins against Detroit, San Antonio, and the Minnesota Timberwolves, calming what had been a minor dip in performance to begin this month. I’d still like to see more trust in Reed Sheppard, which he must continue to earn; there’s no one else on the roster capable of addressing the team’s brutal 3-point shooting this month, which will be amplified by Steven Adams’ extended absence. I’d like to see Dorian Finney-Smith find his footing, too, since he has a higher ceiling than Josh Okogie, who Houston has most relied upon in that 3-and-D-but-nothing-else role.
7. Toronto Raptors (29-19)
Against top-10 opponents: 3-8, minus-6.2 point differential (15th)
What more we need to see: The Raptors’ nine wins this month ties them for the league’s second-most, and they earned this season’s statement result this weekend in a two-point win against Oklahoma City. That game was the typical Toronto success story: Its defense often forced Oklahoma City to short-circuit; the offense did enough, spreading around the responsibility, with eight players scoring at least nine points.
To think any more highly of the Raptors this season, it would probably require them to make a trade that provides a more efficient scoring hub to center their offense around. The team hasn’t fared well against the league’s best opponents, but beating Oklahoma City means this season’s formula can scale up. It just doesn’t happen consistently enough, with this iteration of the roster, to move them any higher.
8. Phoenix Suns (27-19)
Against top-10 opponents: 8-10, minus-6.3 point differential (16th)
What more we need to see: Phoenix’s brilliance this season can be found all around its roster; last week, I praised the two-man game between Collin Gillespie and Oso Ighodaro, two players with a shared hivemind for feeding each other good shots. But while Phoenix’s first season was an utter success, the team’s second season was supposed to begin this past week with Jalen Green’s return. How he fits into the team’s spacing, and how much he amplifies it, will determine whether Phoenix could access higher highs that changes their middling record against the league’s best, as seen above.
Unfortunately, Green left his second return’s second game once again due to that hamstring injury. The team describes this one as more precautionary, which is good, but Phoenix will also be without Devin Booker for at least a week with an ankle sprain.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves (27-19)
Against top-10 opponents: 6-8, minus-2.0 point differential (8th)
What more we need to see: Minnesota, losers of five straight, still have the higher postseason ceiling than the two squads above them. They’ve proven that, at least, which must be respected. But this team can’t be trusted if they only defend when Gobert’s around, and there’s really no reason to think that will change without trade deadline movement. No one’s hitting 3s right now; Gobert’s minutes will rise once we reach the season’s decisive months; this slump, specifically, is one that many good teams suffer around this time of the calendar. But there is something incomplete about the team’s overall makeup that still worries me, which we’ll see whether they address at the deadline.
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (27-20)
Against top-10 opponents: 5-13, minus-4.6 point differential (13th)
What more we need to see: For all the ways that Cleveland has been disappointing this season, this squad’s still just two games behind the Celtics for the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed and have won five of the past six despite more missed games from Darius Garland. I just still choose to believe that machine we saw last season is buried within this squad’s DNA somewhere. Please help Donovan Mitchell, who I firmly believe should have been an All-Star starter. (In retrospect, however, perhaps it was Jalen Brunson’s spot he should’ve taken on my unofficial ballot, not Jaylen Brown’s.)
11. LA Clippers (21-24)
Against top-10 opponents: 5-9, minus-6.6 point differential (18th)
What more we need to see: On Sunday, the Clippers won their 15th game in 18 tries. What we most need to see is Clippers blogger Robert Flom eat his tweet.
Beyond that, we just need to see more of this before we forget the stench that came from the team’s opening months. The Clippers closed last season on an 18-3 stretch and competed admirably for six games against Denver in the first round. It was, unfortunately, a seven-game series. No amount of regular season excellence is enough to fully trust the Clippers, but a bit more success would be nice before we contemplate any further rise up these power rankings.
12. Los Angeles Lakers (27-17)
Against top-10 opponents: 3-8, minus-6.2 point differential (15th)
What more we need to see: Los Angeles still has a record unrepresentative of the totality of its play this season, and Luka Dončić notching another win against his former squad in Dallas, despite his excellence in that game, does nothing to alter our doubts. Deandre Ayton can’t be the opponent’s best player, like he was in that game against Dallas, shooting just 4-of-16 despite taking every shot within the paint. J.J. Redick was forced to close that game with small lineups; for a team with this much size, they still don’t leverage it enough to make up for this roster’s footspeed, which must be the slowest in the league.
Still, we know the sheer talent the Lakers still have. If Austin Reaves’ return can help this offense return to its best, adding needed shooting and drives, then there’s still room for Los Angeles to win a round this postseason.
13. New York Knicks (27-18)
Against top-10 opponents: 4-5, plus-0.3 point differential (6th)
What more we need to see: New York’s nine losses since New Year’s Eve has them among the league’s 10 worst teams, by point differential, in that span. This tailspin has exposed serious questions about the team’s fundamental makeup: Karl-Anthony Towns has become increasingly unreliable; Jalen Brunson’s defense continues to be destructive; Mikal Bridges has more single-digit scoring games (three) since Christmas than 20-point outings (one). We need to see New York face more postseason-level opponents and we need to see them rise to those occasions, both with their effort and their results, which has been absent in some recent defeats.
14. Philadelphia 76ers (24-20)
Against top-10 opponents: 8-8, minus-0.2 point differential (7th)
What more we need to see: That Philadelphia has played well with the big boys this season despite how much their on-court product has changed gives me hope for this squad’s ceiling being higher than what they’ve shown. Joel Embiid playing 46 minutes in an overtime win over Houston is as encouraging as the 32-15-10 triple-double he notched in it.
We need to see this squad they were meant to be more often, which will take time, since Philadelphia understandably continues orientating itself to peak in April. And while the schedule’s been tough, it’s still disappointing not to see the 76ers notch at least one more win in this eight-game stretch against seven sure playoff teams. (They went 3-5 and did handle business against the one bad team, Indiana, in that stretch.) But Philadelphia’s locked in as one of the league’s most interesting teams to watch down the stretch, especially if they cash in on a rotation upgrade at the deadline.
TIER THREE: Still could be feisty spoilers
15. Golden State Warriors (26-21)
Why they’re still feisty: Golden State still has a competitive roster around Stephen Curry, who’s playing at an All-NBA level and wholly deserved his All-Star starting nod. Jimmy Butler’s torn ACL, unfortunately, ended any hope this season would result in a more befitting sendoff — a first-round upset or at least a highly competitive seven-game series — to Curry’s post-prime. The Warriors can still beat you; they just walloped Minnesota by 26 points. But they’ve mostly been bad this year against the league’s best (5-8 with a minus-8.0 point differential) and that high-end ceiling only falls further without Butler.
16. Portland Trail Blazers (23-23)
Why they’re still feisty: Say hello to the team with the second-best record (9-3) in January! Finally, Portland’s roster has become to mesh together, something that started prior to Jrue Holiday’s return but has been immensely helped by his veteran knowhow. The offense doesn’t revert to prehistoric levels whenever Deni Advija steps off the court. The defense is creeping closer to being above average. The team won’t be the dark horse contenders we anticipated might be possible before the season, but they’re more than just a tough night on the schedule.
17. Orlando Magic (23-21)
Why they’re still feisty: Orlando has had a worse month than the Indiana Pacers. You can’t quit on this team’s talent, especially with Franz Wagner nearing a return and the squad’s proclivity for taking close games. (They have the league’s fourth-best clutch record.) But Orlando has been less than the sum of its parts, again, especially offensively, even with Anthony Black’s emergence, which makes it hard to assign them adjectives any stronger than feisty until further notice.
18. Charlotte Hornets (18-28)
Why they’re still feisty: Charlotte has the league’s best point differential this month despite being just a game over .500 in that same span. These Hornets are, and have been, better than you think. LaMelo Ball hasn’t been efficient, but don’t think he’s not a winning player: It’s clear his tempo and ball movement has enormous benefits for Charlotte that far outpaces his detrimental shot selection. But the Hornets need to turn this excellent play into dubyas more often; the league’s second-worst win percentage in clutch games won’t cut it. Until proving so, they’ll remain near this tier’s bottom.
19. Miami Heat (25-22)
Why they’re still feisty: Because, I suppose, they’re still the Miami Heat with a reputation you should respect. They notched a victory against the Thunder last week, too, one of those wins against the league’s best that had been missing from this season’s resume. But this squad still doesn’t seem to have any fragility to its ceiling that they’re poised to burst through. We’re headed towards another Play-In Tournament appearance with the only upside lying within the team’s coaching.
TIER FOUR: Still trying, won’t succeed
20. Chicago Bulls (23-22)
Why we’re ruling out playoff success: Chicago’s finally back over .500 thanks to four straight wins, and Coby White’s been on a heater. But there’s little reason to think that the Bulls’ recent success means a reversal of yet another season aimed for the league’s lower middle class.
21. Dallas Mavericks (19-27)
Why we’re ruling out playoff success: Dallas’ bipolar season has been marked by off-the-court storylines and occasional moments of better-than-the-part’s-sum play. In fact, the Mavericks have the league’s seventh-best winning percentage against top-10 opponents, going 8-9 despite being far beneath .500 on the season. But while the supporting cast has been excellent, every indication is that Dallas will be sellers at this year’s deadline. That’s the mindset they should have.
24. Atlanta Hawks (22-25)
Why we’re ruling out playoff success: Atlanta’s solid win against Phoenix this weekend, featuring C.J. McCollum’s second-best game since joining the Hawks, indicated this team still has some verve when everything clicks. But while Trae Young’s absence earlier this year made clear it was time to move on, it didn’t show this team was a contender-in-waiting without him any more than the past few weeks have.
23. Milwaukee Bucks (18-26)
Why we’re ruling out playoff success: Milwaukee has managed just five wins against top-10 opponents in 18 tries. Even as an unexpected starter emerged this season in Ryan Rollins, the Bucks haven’t been — and won’t be — good enough without Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court to be serious about anything more than a distant spoiler. I’m unconvinced there’s any trade deadline move that could change that.
24. Memphis Grizzlies (18-25)
Why we’re ruling out playoff success: Memphis isn’t good when Ja Morant plays, which can’t be trusted even if he isn’t moved at next month’s deadline. Zach Edey may return later this season, and with him this team’s higher ceiling, but there’s little reason to have faith this would all come together in a meaningful way even if that happens.
TIER FIVE: Lost all hope but lotto odds
25. New Orleans Pelicans (12-36)
What stakes remain this season: New Orleans has been the best of this hopeless sextet over the past two weeks, which means very little. The team’s three best players — Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen — only have one lineup combination amongst them that has yielded positive results this season: Murphy and Williamson playing together, Queen sitting, per DataBallr. Every other lineup construction has resulted in New Orleans being ran off the court, a problem they don’t seem eager to solve at the deadline.
26. Utah Jazz (15-31)
What stakes remain this season: Utah seems to have settled on a tanking strategy that has them overtly throwing games against opponents racing to the bottom with them, such as the Dallas Mavericks, who Utah lost twice to sitting Lauri Markkanen, Svi Mykhailiuk, and Jusuf Nurkić, while trying harder against anyone clearly above them, resulting in the occasional win against a heavier hitter like Minnesota. But what’s left for them this season, clearly, is player development and the certainty that they’ll keep this year’s first-round pick, owed to Oklahoma City if it doesn’t land in the top-eight. (You could argue this is the one instance where tanking is in the league’s own good.)
27. Indiana Pacers (11-35)
What stakes remain this season: Indiana has a few wins in the past two weeks, finally allowing them to overtake Washington and avoid sporting the league’s worst record. There’s just not much else to look forward to, unfortunately, for this forced gap year.
28. Sacramento Kings (12-35)
What stakes remain this season: Does Sacramento’s necessary roster teardown, long overdue, begin in earnest this trade deadline? Is there even serious interst for these highly paid veterans who have led the Kings to nothing except the league’s third-worst record?
29. Brooklyn Nets (12-32)
What stakes remain this season: Brooklyn’s excellent December is a distant memory; the team’s been back this entire month. Not even Michael Porter Jr., a surefire All-Star to me, amidst one of the greatest shooting seasons we’ve ever seen, has been able to salvage the on-court product. He does make it slightly more watchable, at least.
30. Washington Wizards (10-34)
What stakes remain this season: What Trae Young looks like with the youngsters, for now, is the only thing of significance remaining for the Wizards’ season. And even that, it seems, will have to wait until after the All-Star break.
Tim Cato is ALLCITY’s national NBA writer currently based in Dallas. He can be reached at tcato@alldlls.com or on X at @tim_cato.
